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Over Pr vs Set - Can I get away from this?

wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Bad call on the turn? People so overvalue their hands at these levels I put him on AQ.

Merge, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

UTG+2: $68.25 (34.1 bb)
MP1: $36.77 (18.4 bb)
MP2: $200.80 (100.4 bb)
MP3: $118.85 (59.4 bb)
CO: $725.32 (362.7 bb)
BTN: $265.91 (133 bb)
SB: $184.50 (92.3 bb)
Hero (BB): $215.39 (107.7 bb)
UTG+1: $243.73 (121.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Kh Kc
UTG+1 raises to $6, 2 folds, MP2 calls $6, 4 folds, Hero raises to $18,
UTG+UTG+1 calls $12, MP2 calls $12

Flop: ($55) 6d Qd 2c (3 players)
Hero bets $36.66, UTG+1 calls $36.66, MP2 folds

Turn: ($128.32) Js (2 players)
Hero bets $64.16, UTG+1 raises to $189.07 and is all-in, Hero calls $96.57 and is all-in

River: ($449.78) Qh (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $449.78 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 6d Qd 2c Js Qh
Hero showed Kh Kc and lost (-$215.39 net)
UTG+1 showed 2s 2d and won $446.78 ($231.39 net)

Comments

  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Raising AQ in villain's spot would be pretty bad. You raised an UTG+1 open from OOP, which is already pretty strong. You then continue to fire flop and turn, even though queens and jacks hit UTG+1's range pretty hard. If he's not folding AQ preflop, he certainly should only call flop and MAYBE turn, but it becomes a fold against most players by the river. Raising on any street is suicide, barring any special history.

    I think once villain raises the turn, one pair becomes a bluff catcher.

    Also, I'd recommend to include villain's stats in your hand histories. The best play can be totally different, depending on if you face a guy playing (12 / 8 / 2) or (20 / 17 / 8). His fold-to-3bet stat is very important, and his postfop stats as well (wtSD, w$wsF).
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    whatsyourplay? said

    Raising AQ in villain's spot would be pretty bad. You raised an UTG+1 open from OOP, which is already pretty strong. You then continue to fire flop and turn, even though queens and jacks hit UTG+1's range pretty hard. If he's not folding AQ preflop, he certainly should only call flop and MAYBE turn, but it becomes a fold against most players by the river. Raising on any street is suicide, barring any special history.

    I think once villain raises the turn, one pair becomes a bluff catcher.

    Also, I'd recommend to include villain's stats in your hand histories. The best play can be totally different, depending on if you face a guy playing (12 / 8 / 2) or (20 / 17 / 8). His fold-to-3bet stat is very important, and his postfop stats as well (wtSD, w$wsF).
    +1. I would also say that you should include your own stats, as this influences how others at the table perceive you.
  • I'd 3bet more pre, especially being OOP. I think OTT it becomes obvious you are beat unless he is overplaying AQ.

    To Bart: I think we need a sub-section for online hands.
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    Good points whats. By the way how is wtSD, w$wsF numbers relevant? If they are high than I shoudl give him more respect I take it?

    Whack: As far as seeing my stats HEM2 doesn't do that which absolutely sucks because I want to see what my villian sees. I can only see my stats at that table in that session, and thats not what my villian sees. Is there any way to see this? I've searched om HEM and they say no - we only show session stats which makes more sense (according to them) but thats crap imo. I want to see what they see, not how I'm playing that session.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    A high wtSD number indicates that villain is checking and calling a lot in order to reach showdown, i.e. the likelihood that he will bluff or valuebet thinly is reduced.

    A high w$wsf number indicates that villain wins a lot of pots postflop, which is only possible through putting pressure on his opponents through aggression (without a strong range to back it up), i.e. the likelihood that he is making a play at you goes up.
  • LucasE Posts: 167Member
    whatsyourplay? said

    A high wtSD number indicates that villain is checking and calling a lot in order to reach showdown, i.e. the likelihood that he will bluff or valuebet thinly is reduced.

    A high w$wsf number indicates that villain wins a lot of pots postflop, which is only possible through putting pressure on his opponents through aggression (without a strong range to back it up), i.e. the likelihood that he is making a play at you goes up.
    Other possibilities when looking at these numbers in a vacuum - A high wtSD could mean that villain is only playing a tighter, therefore stronger, range which means he is less likely to fold post flop. Most likely, though, WYP is correct that a high wtSD means villain is on the passive side.

    A high w$wsf can also mean villain is playing a strong, value oriented opening range, that is more likely to be the best hand.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    LucasE said
    Other possibilities when looking at these numbers in a vacuum - A high wtSD could mean that villain is only playing a tighter, therefore stronger, range which means he is less likely to fold post flop. Most likely, though, WYP is correct that a high wtSD means villain is on the passive side.

    A high w$wsf can also mean villain is playing a strong, value oriented opening range, that is more likely to be the best hand.
    Both statements can be true or wrong, depending on villain's preflop ranges. E.g. if somebody plays a VPIP of 12, he can get away with a very high w$wsf due to his extremely strong range, whereas a player with a VPIP of 30 can't do this without having very many weak hands in his range.

    You need to look at both stats in context of each other to determine how strong his range is in a particular spot.
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    wildncrazyguy said

    Good points whats. By the way how is wtSD, w$wsF numbers relevant? If they are high than I shoudl give him more respect I take it?

    Whack: As far as seeing my stats HEM2 doesn't do that which absolutely sucks because I want to see what my villian sees. I can only see my stats at that table in that session, and thats not what my villian sees. Is there any way to see this? I've searched om HEM and they say no - we only show session stats which makes more sense (according to them) but thats crap imo. I want to see what they see, not how I'm playing that session.
    Dan - take a look here. http://hm2faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/111/Reports+{47}+Cash+Game+{47}+More+Reports#Overall

    You should be able to get your stats from these reports in HEM2
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    Thanks Whats. Here's an interesting article I ran across talking about this as well ( Learn somethin new every day :) ) - http://www.myholdempokertips.com/hud-stats-wtsd-won-money-at-showdown

    Wack:
    I know you can do digging to find your stats but sure would be easier to just have them showing on your hud like every elses. One of these days someone will write a code doing this I hope.
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