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1/2 deep, can I fold middle set here?

Gumbo Posts: 23Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
So while waiting for 2/5, I played in a very nice 1/2 table (lots of loose passive players) and this hand came up.
Couple of limps to me on the button with TcTs and I raise to 12, bb (super loose gambling guy, stacks off with top pair usually, around 300$) calls, limper calls, and hj calls (loose passive, but when he gets his money in, he usually has it, around 400$). I have all of them covered.
flop comes AdTh3d, bb checks, utg checks, hj leads for 17, I make it 50, bb calls, hj calls
turn 2h, bb leads 200 with 50+ behind, i am not very concerned by this guy, he could have anything from top pair to flush draw, but hj then tanks for a while and shoves for 356, hero ????

So my question here is : do you think hj's range is anything else than a wheel with 54s?

Comments

  • Steve Posts: 149Subscriber
    I wouldn't fold tens here.

    Would hj lead on the flop with a gut shot wheel draw? I suppose if he's very LAG. But if that's the case, you can't only assume he's got 45 here on the turn.

    It does look like he made his hand on the turn. In my experience, players of this nature don't lead the flop and then hit the brakes with a made hand. I'd expect him to three bet on the flop if he thinks his hand is good. It's only on the turn when he thinks his hand is good enough to shove with.

    So what did he improve to on the turn? Well, it does look like 45. But he could also have A2. Maybe Ax hearts.

    You will probably see 45 a decent amount of time here, but given how wild he is he's liable to show up with worse, too.

    You said he tanked on the turn. 45 is the nuts, so what is he tanking over? Was he Hollywood-ing it? trying to make it look like he had a tough decision?
  • Gumbo Posts: 23Subscriber
    I saw him donkbet with draws before, so yes he would lead with 5d4d and 54o. And when he tanked, he made it looked like he was concerned about the hand, but I wasnt sure if he was hollywooding. I ended up shoving, river 7s and he showed 5d4s, so I guess he was trying to lure me in by faking being worried! But yes I dont think I can fold here, especially since I am never drawing dead (I'm 99% positive no one has aces here ever).

    Also I would expect him to 3bet a set on the flop, maybe 2 pair, but I am not sure given that his play is somewhat random.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Don't post results so fast if you want more honest feedback on the hand.
    No, I'm not folding TTT on the turn. I might raise the flop a bit bigger to like 59 or something.
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    I don't fold sets at 1/2 unless the board is super crazy or we are 250/300BBs deep (and even then I'm probably not folding). It's generally not a profitable play.

    I also make the flop raise much bigger - 70 or 75. an Ace will still call, nut hearts will still call, gutshots (obviously) will still call
  • Gumbo Posts: 23Subscriber
    Sorry for posting his hand that fast, and yes you guys are right, I should have made my raise bigger (I first thought he lead for 12, but thats my mistake). Thanks for your inputs, i guess it's a cooler.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    chilidog said

    Don't post results so fast if you want more honest feedback on the hand.
    No, I'm not folding TTT on the turn. I might raise the flop a bit bigger to like 59 or something.
    I think this was the big mistake in the hand. the small lead on the flop is so often a block bet for a draw I am raising pot 100% of the time. 50 is just too small. the pot has almost 50 bucks preflop. then the 17 lead thats almost 70.. go ahead and raise to 100! after you call the 17, you are still raising less than the pot (~85)

    The best part of this type of raise is you are likely to get called by flush draws and the weaker draws will fold since you are denying them odds (most of the time). .there are two dias out there. Then if the bozo calls with a gutshot so be it. but I think given the stacks your bet size didnt charge them enough for drawing ..

    ww
  • Steve Posts: 149Subscriber
    Nicolas said

    Also I would expect him to 3bet a set on the flop, maybe 2 pair, but I am not sure given that his play is somewhat random.
    As I hinted at, you can be sure that what he was betting on the turn was different than what he was betting on the flop. It is extremely rare for a player at this level to lead the flop, smooth call your raise, and then come alive on the turn betting the same hand he had on the flop. If you ever see this happen, I'd say 99% of the time the hand improved on the turn.
  • I raise way more on the flop for value. Not folding a set here on the turn. Cooler if beaten.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Nicolas said
    So my question here is : do you think hj's range is anything else than a wheel with 54s?
    Yes.
    33, 22, and possibly AT or A3 / A2 some of the time.
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