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a spade-y situation

floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/2 (with $2 button blind) early saturday morning around 1 am

hero (400): had been winning recently, taking my share of the pie vs. two mega-fish at the table. late 30's guy, glasses, jogging jacket, jeans. nothing outlandish. had to be seen as solid player at this time.

villain (800): quiet, late 20-something guy on white-hot streak. kept rivering heart flushes and had built up the table's biggest stack. overall, actually struck me as a tighter-than-usual player. had seen him limp with KQ pre OOP -- not mega-tight, but a little unusual. but he still liked to chase post flop, which is how he kept hitting flushes. had not played with him before tonight. i could tell he wasn't particularly savvy -- i hadn't seen him make any big plays or play very aggressively. it was a simple case of him getting hit hard with the deck. we had not gotten mixed up in a big hand before this -- play had mostly revolved around the two mega-fish, who didn't figure in this hand.

hand:

two limpers to me and i've got Ks2s on the button. i'm already in for a $2 blind and i check. villain in SB completes.

flop ($10): Ts6s3s

villain bets 10. others fold. i make it 30. he pauses for a while. at first, i thought he'd definitely call. then he took so long that i started to wonder. then he finally called.

turn ($70): 9s

villain bets $50.

hero?

Comments

  • JesseDornstreich Posts: 2Member
    call and evaluate river sizing, if he comes out and bets small like same bet you could call and if he comes out and bets big on river then its pretty easy to fold. While yes you have the second nuts the four flush means when he comes out and bets big on river after youve called showing significant strength eh would have to be betting river with Qs or worse or a bluff when he needs to be worried that you could be slow playing the As... pretty unlikely. I would kind of assume he actually has the As on the turn given what you said but I dont think you really can fold the second nuts to one bet as he could be blocking/info betting a worse hand or bluffing... his line is very consistent with having the As though you would think he would have called your flop raise a bit quicker but he very well could have been thinking about raising it back on the flop.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I think I am raise-folding this turn to get value from lower flushes or possibly some sets/two pair combos. He might have thought about reraising the flop with a set but then decided to just flat. I know it's a bit of a stretch, but even if that happens only 5% of the time, we are loosing money by just calling the turn. Anyways, the thing is he really can't come over the top with anything but the As or a straight flush.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    JesseDornstreich said

    call and evaluate river sizing, if he comes out and bets small like same bet you could call and if he comes out and bets big on river then its pretty easy to fold. While yes you have the second nuts the four flush means when he comes out and bets big on river after youve called showing significant strength eh would have to be betting river with Qs or worse or a bluff when he needs to be worried that you could be slow playing the As... pretty unlikely. I would kind of assume he actually has the As on the turn given what you said but I dont think you really can fold the second nuts to one bet as he could be blocking/info betting a worse hand or bluffing... his line is very consistent with having the As though you would think he would have called your flop raise a bit quicker but he very well could have been thinking about raising it back on the flop.
    I like this line; I think his river action will probably turn his hand face up. If he doesn't have the ace I think the river gets checked a lot, and you can bet/fold the river.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    thanks for the help, guys.

    you've convinced me: i blew this one.

    in the end, i could not see him taking this line without the As. i thought it was a near certainty that he would come back over the top with a set on the flop, and almost definitely would with a small-ish flush. so when he opted to flat, i put him squarely on having the As in his hand. and when the fourth spade came and he bet out 50, that was that: i mucked. this was not a crazy player -- i mean, he would chase, but wasn't crazy -- and i simply thought a four-flush would be too scary for him to take this line without the As.

    before i mucked, i told him, 'wow, you're going to hit your flush every single time tonight?' then threw away the second nuts.

    he said, 'i'll show you one.' and flipped over the Qs and said he'd flopped it.

    it was possible that he had played AsQs bizarrely (he had limped earlier with KQ in EP) and limped pre, but very doubtful. and a little later i said to him, 'i thought you had the ace high there,' without saying what i had obv. and he said, 'nah' and i believe it.

    his play on the turn now makes more sense. he flopped huge, fell in love with the hand, and decided to slow play it when i raised the flop. then, when another spade came, he was so in love with the hand, he just kept betting it -- really without much regard to my hand.

    i had to call 50 in a 120 pot -- this spot is ambiguous enough to make the call. if he bets big on the river, it's an eeeeeasy fold.

    it just sucks because if he raises the flop, i win a huge pot. (i think his slow play is a mistake since there's so much he can get value from.) also, if i'd have raised bigger on the flop (which perhaps i should have if the bet was largely designed to make the A pay to chase) he might have re-popped it.

    argh.
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    I wouldn't raise the turn imo. Guys are not block betting sets or turning a set into a bluff at 1/2. Since we have the ks the best villain can have that we beat is the as which is the third nuts, and we are basically saying we aren't afraid of the nuts.

    I would probably call and eval as well. Most guys try to slowplay when they turn the nuts. Its possible he did donk out with the as, but when you call it looks so strong I seriously doubt he's going to fire again large without the as, so you can confidently fold.

    You'd think though if he showed the qs there is a good chance he actually had aq ss. Guys usually either show a brick card to tilt ppl or say what they had. They don't usually show some random non-nut card and don't say anything.
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