Bellagio 2/5. I'm new to the table and only have basic reads. Seems kinda soft.
I'm in bb with 33, mp limp, co limp, btn raises $25. He's a 40s amateur and I've only seen him show down tens, which he protected with a big flop raise (9-high board) and a turn bet, then checked the relatively safe river. No thin value or even fairly thick value — nitty checkback IP. An acquaintance grinder next to me says he's really tight.
I flat $20 more, so does cutoff. Flop ($80) K♠ 8♠ 3♦ bingo!
I check for a fairly standard checkraise line vs an amateur who'll never fold AK or AA. Cutoff checks, btn checks back. Hm. Does he have queens/jacks/tens or maybe he's capable of squeezing light? Doubtful...
Turn 6♣ , I lead small $30 to get called by worse, trying to rep a weak bluff. Cutoff folds, PFR raises to $65. We're heads up. This seems quite odd for a perceived nit after checking back the flop, but I have a monster so I don't give it too much thought. I 3bet to $125 (get value before a spade kills my action) and he quickly jams his $292 stack (I cover).
What does he represent? I figure this player would bet a vulnerable top-pair type hand OTF bc of the flush draw, although I suppose it's slightly possible he's getting fancy with aces/ak instead of protecting OTF. I have a huge hand, and given stack size I'm sure at least 1 person will tell me I have to call it off, but honestly what do I beat vs a nit's nit slowplaying the flop and 4bet-jamming the turn?
He'll never turn an underpair into a bluff (esp w/ little fold equity), I doubt he'll raise a draw like A♠ Q♠ ... So that leaves him a set of kings or eights? I guess some amateurs protect little pairs pre, so he could have sixes? Can I really fold a set here, recalling that they only run into a bigger set 1% of the time? I know it's terribly standard to call it off and see (it's only $167 more), and if he coolers me then fine, reload, carry on. But... could he possibly spaz with something I beat?