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bottom set vs nit repping a monster

DTMooreDTMoore Posts: 156Member
edited October 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Bellagio 2/5. I'm new to the table and only have basic reads. Seems kinda soft.

I'm in bb with 33, mp limp, co limp, btn raises $25. He's a 40s amateur and I've only seen him show down tens, which he protected with a big flop raise (9-high board) and a turn bet, then checked the relatively safe river. No thin value or even fairly thick value — nitty checkback IP. An acquaintance grinder next to me says he's really tight.

I flat $20 more, so does cutoff. Flop ($80) K 8 3 bingo!
I check for a fairly standard checkraise line vs an amateur who'll never fold AK or AA. Cutoff checks, btn checks back. Hm. Does he have queens/jacks/tens or maybe he's capable of squeezing light? Doubtful...

Turn 6 , I lead small $30 to get called by worse, trying to rep a weak bluff. Cutoff folds, PFR raises to $65. We're heads up. This seems quite odd for a perceived nit after checking back the flop, but I have a monster so I don't give it too much thought. I 3bet to $125 (get value before a spade kills my action) and he quickly jams his $292 stack (I cover).

What does he represent? I figure this player would bet a vulnerable top-pair type hand OTF bc of the flush draw, although I suppose it's slightly possible he's getting fancy with aces/ak instead of protecting OTF. I have a huge hand, and given stack size I'm sure at least 1 person will tell me I have to call it off, but honestly what do I beat vs a nit's nit slowplaying the flop and 4bet-jamming the turn?

He'll never turn an underpair into a bluff (esp w/ little fold equity), I doubt he'll raise a draw like A Q ... So that leaves him a set of kings or eights? I guess some amateurs protect little pairs pre, so he could have sixes? Can I really fold a set here, recalling that they only run into a bigger set 1% of the time? I know it's terribly standard to call it off and see (it's only $167 more), and if he coolers me then fine, reload, carry on. But... could he possibly spaz with something I beat?
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Comments

  • Polarized Posts: 195Subscriber
    edited October 2015
    I don't mind your plan on the flop but 30 into 80 with flush and a possible straight draw on the turn is missed value. I'd be betting 55ish for value.

    As played I'm just getting it in for those stacks and I'm not at all concerned with what villain has. If he has a bigger set its a cooler. This is no time to fear monsters under the bed. Get it in and fist pump as you got the action you wanted, despite missing potential value. If villain had a set, he should be betting for value and protection because of the flush draw.
  • DTMooreDTMoore Posts: 156Member
    edited October 2015
    I only bet so small OTT because everyone showed weakness OTF, so I'm trying to actually get called by an underpair, not turn my set into a bluff/protection and make worse fold. Sure, the flush might come in but I won't necessarily pay it off. Small pot so far. I understand your point, I just risk less and give myself room to fold on scary rivers. Whatever.

    Sometimes the draws hit and I lose, that's poker. I no longer try to prevent that outcome, I just go for value and reassess.

    I got the action I wanted in that he gii, but I expected a flat ott and then maybe calling my shove OTR. When the nit 4bet the turn I got queasy.
  • Polarized Posts: 195Subscriber
    I wasn't suggesting betting for prevention or protection. But Kx could well call 50-55 having checked to the raiser who checked, as well as 8x, 99+ and flush and straght draws. These are all hand you get value from. If another spade comes on the river and they don't have a flush you might not get any more value. Just my 2 cents.
  • DTMooreDTMoore Posts: 156Member
    True. Being multiway, the CO can give me value even if the tight PFR folds TT immediately. Fodder for next time.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    DT

    against a straightforward player to my right as pfr with players in between I would have preferred you leading for $30 on the flop...

    this is an old limit technique that can apply to NL in some situations. If the PFR is on your RIGHT. and there are players in between you both AND pfr is either very tight or very weak I prefer the small lead. If they are calling stations then I like a bigger lead.. and if they are very aggro I am going for sure for the check raise..

    based on your description of villain I like the small lead.. this looks alot like a flush draw and you are likely to induce a protection bet from many players.. Furthermore the players in between are much more likely to call further getting more value from the hand whereas if you go for check raise now those players are much much more likely to fold..

    So what is this guy repping? Either he is slowplaying a monster ..like KK or QQ even on a wet board or he was raising with say 66s and hit his set on the turn.

    If villain is NEVER playing a royal draw or AA fast on the turn then this is an easy fold imho.. regardless of if you have a set if this guy just never plays draws fast or never overplays AK or AA on the flop then all he can have is a set or at worst KQ..

    your equity against a range of KQ, KK ,QQ or 66 is just crap..

    ww
  • marseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    I think this is one of those times where you need to consider the monkey factor of a lot of amateur/rec players. Are you beat here most of the time? Probably. But can he being doing this with some backasswards hand more than 1/4 times? Who knows, maybe he just "had to go"…
  • DTMooreDTMoore Posts: 156Member
    Hammah: I like that limit move, sandwiching the callers w/ PFR on right. Then it may be tougher to fold when I'm beat even if he 4bets flop, bc he could overplay aces. But still, 60bb, so... it's fine? Maybe I'm being a perfectionist.

    Marseille: Yeah. I've made hero folds just to see the monkey factor in play. Nits tilt too. I dunno, it's close in my mind.
  • Scorcho1108Scorcho1108 Posts: 57Subscriber
    edited October 2015
    Lead flop is the right way to go. Especially with that board.

    Based on his betting and knowledge you have of him, you're dead. And to answer your question of "Can I fold here?" The answer is yes. 100%. The absolute best you can hope for here is that he has Aces and based on his history that seems unlikely.
  • DTMooreDTMoore Posts: 156Member
    edited October 2015
    Yeah. For next time I'm thinking lead flop $30 and then when he makes it $65 I click-back a minimum 3bet ($100) so as to not totally commit, and then fold to his 4bet ($192 more).
  • johnamenjohnamen Posts: 55Subscriber
    edited October 2015
    I cannot see folding a set for less than 100bbs and putting them on a higher set is insane. Your giving this jagoff too much credit imo.

    Edit: your new to the table, how are u soooooo sure hes only playing sets like this ?? Gettttt ittttt innnnnnnnn. If he has a bigger set, reload another 100bbs....also don't be result oriented in the case where he does flip over a set here. I still get this shit in for 100bbs....
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    DTMoore said:
    Yeah. For next time I'm thinking lead flop $30 and then when he makes it $65 I click-back a minimum 3bet ($100) so as to not totally commit, and then fold to his 4bet ($192 more).
    If you have history with this guy then I might fold to the 4bet.. If hes just a unknown older guy then the avg OMC can overplay AA and I am not necessarily folding. I mean you could talk to the guy .. alot of these players will think you are on the draw and might actually show you the bigger set.. lol..

    that said my advice of leading was to max the value the rest of the time when OMC doesnt have a set..

    ww
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Yes , bet / folding is a good way to get value while not exposing our stack if we're beat, but folding here for these effective stacks is taking that concept a bit overboard imo.

    You're saying that there is no possible way that this player picked up combo equity on the turn with hands like 9Tss , 45ss, 97ss, 56ss.

    Is there a decent chance you're beat? Yeah , ok. But I'm not folding in that game for these stacks. Plus : no matter what he has, you have out(s)!
  • DTMooreDTMoore Posts: 156Member
    edited October 2015
    chilidog said:
    You're saying that there is no possible way that this player picked up combo equity on the turn with hands like 9Tss , 45ss, 97ss, 56ss.
    I just don't think OMC is squeezing any of those hands from the button. I do realize, however, that I'm being a perfectionist. And no, I didn't have a great read on the guy. Meh.
    chilidog said:
    Is there a decent chance you're beat? Yeah, ok. But I'm not folding in that game for these stacks. Plus: no matter what he has, you have out(s)!
    Heh. Equity, eh?
  • AJoff Posts: 546Subscriber
    In real time, i would probably make a crying call. My issue isn't folding for 178 more, it's that he only had to raise his last 230. Your small turn raise might also be indicing some spaz. I would snap call if you led flop and he 4bet all in as he could be fast playing a worse made hand.

    As played I could go either way, anyone who is sure is kidding themselves. Expect to see lots or KK and 66.
  • DTMooreDTMoore Posts: 156Member
    edited October 2015
    Yeah, screw it, I can't fold vs possible overplay (since I don't know him). Nevermind.
  • DTMooreDTMoore Posts: 156Member
    Thehammah said:
    I mean you could talk to the guy .. alot of these players will think you are on the draw and might actually show you the bigger set.. lol..
    Love this. If I tell him "I have 15 outs, man" and he shows me a monster bc he hates suckouts... lol indeed.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    DTMoore said:
    Thehammah said:
    I mean you could talk to the guy .. alot of these players will think you are on the draw and might actually show you the bigger set.. lol..
    Love this. If I tell him "I have 15 outs, man" and he shows me a monster bc he hates suckouts... lol indeed.
    The older the player I feel the more likely they are to "show" you how strong they are because they dont want the bad beat. I have actually called out their hand and have one of them show me ..

    I remember this lady I was playing with .. total nit. I had KK and 3 bet her raise.. she made a big 4 bet.. I said " you have aces" and she said "yes" and showed me.. I didnt have the correct odds to call and I just folded my KK and she was like.. "theres enough in the pot"

    blah blah blah..

    they dont have to answer so I feel I am not doing anything unethical. BUT... they might just give a little away and if you get shown a bigger set you can fold and save yourself the last $200...

    good times!!

  • DTMooreDTMoore Posts: 156Member
    That's fantastic. She just wanted to take it down.

    Yeah for sure not unethical, any info they give up is their choice. And this is poker, the game of mindfucks.
  • DTMooreDTMoore Posts: 156Member
    Spoiler:
    It should be obvious that this thread is just me checking that I shouldn't be results oriented. As played, I didn't love the 4bet but I snap called bc of stack sizes, and the nit showed me KK for top set.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    DT

    Spoiler:


    You see just how important it is to know if villain would overplay a hand or slowplay a hand even on a wet board..

    I cannot emphasize enough for me just how important this is. I sometimes get heat on this forum for my "reads" but heh what can I tell you. If I KNOW a player NEVER ever has done something then I can take out the range of hands that that something represents..

    If we are unaware of this information at the time of the hand then all we can do is play optimal vs our standard stereotype of this player pool. and then maximize our value over a large hand sample. ie leading into a OMC on our right with two players in between..

    I am sorry you got coolered.. but as I said earlier in my post.. If I knew this guy wouldnt overplay AA on the turn its just a snap fold.. :-( If I have 200 left that 200 I am saving.. I only beat KQ and thats just not good enough odds.. imho...

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