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2/5, QQ facing heat on paired board.

marseille Posts: 400Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hi all-
This hand has been rattling around in my brain for a few days and I could use some feedback.
Good 2/5 game at local casino with some loose action players. I have about 150bb in HJ, villain in CO covers. I've been active in late position and have kept heat on some of the more passive players at table with flop and turn bets. Villain has also been active in lp, but seems a bit more spewy. He can fire three bullets, but I get the sense he can't always slow down (or vary bet size) once committed. I I haven't seen him 3 bet preflop. I check-called him on river with underpair to flushy board, which seemed to get his attention.

The hand: one limper in ep, Hero raises to 20 with QQ in HJ, V min-raises to 40 in CO, SB calls, Hero calls. Flop comes 772 ($130). Checked to V who bets 110. SB folds, I call. Turn is another 7 ($350). I check again, V bets 320, I tank for a few minutes, then call. River is a blank ($940). I check, he puts me all-in for 300+, I snap-call.

My "line": Initially, I had his 3 bet range fairly narrow, from JJ-AA, AK, maybe AQ. I don't see suited connecters (67or 78) here. The min-raise suggests he wants a max 3 person pot, which suggests big pair ( In these games, I see players min-raise AA/KK more frequently than AK, where they just want to take down pot preflop). On the other hand, if he's holding AA/KK, why so much on paired flop board? On flop, I narrow his range to AK,1010/JJ. I think my hand is relatively disguised. On the turn, I was less sure but decide to commit, figuring he would show up with AA/KK less than 50% of the time here. If I got it all in on turn, I would certainly fold out his air, whereas if I just called, with no showdown value he might turn his hand into a bluff despite weak fold equity (I only had about 300 left).

My question: What do you think the optimal play is here, given the (albeit incomplete) picture painted? This is a hand where intuition and deductive thinking don't always match up.

Many thanks

Comments

  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    If you assign him such a strong and narrow 3betting range, it becomes a fold on the turn. It's pretty unlikely that he's firing huge on two streets with TT, JJ or AK/AQ. It's much more probable that he is strong and just wants to get all the money in.

    If there is a chance that he's 3betting somewhat wider than the range you assigned him initially, I like reraising (technically it's a 4bet, even though his 3bet is a minraise) preflop to take the initiative back. If he 5bets, you can fold. If he calls, you fire a half pot sized bet on favorable flops and go from there.
  • marseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    thanks whatsyourplay. I see where you are coming from. All things being equal, this is probably the safer play. OTOH, I am not so sure how unlikely double barreling on paired board is. What if we flip things around? If it looks unlikely from the perspective of Hero, that suggests it could very well be a viable line from thinking opponent with AK or other non-made hand. He has position, can persuasively rep high pair, can reasonably eliminate 7 from my range. If I check call flop, why not fire another salvo on turn if checked to? His problem would be (or should be) evaluating my hand range, since the min-raise doesn't help narrow things down. With only one caller, I might trap with a strong hand knowing there are only two others to the flop. Considering how hard a call this was for me (on turn) and the table talk after, perhaps turning up pressure on paired boards in position (rather than slowing down) might be a useful tactic to balance range in 3-bet pots. Obviously, these spots are extremely player and situation specific.
  • LucasE Posts: 167Member
    You say one of your reads is that villain has trouble easing off the aggression and has trouble varying bet amounts. Then you question why he bet so big on the flop. It seems that villain may simply be betting big because he has a big hand. I think taking AA/KK out of his range because he bet big on the flop is really optimistic. I know if I'm in villain's place I like a big bet on the flop because I'm putting you on an overpair to the board that is likely to call or a missed AK/AQ that's going to fold regardless of my bet size.

    The turn continues to tell the same story. Villain 3bet preflop, bet big on the flop and continues to bet big when he turns a full house. He's putting in a pot size bet that's half his remaining stack - I'm inclined to give villain credit for a big hand here and am very likely to fold the turn.

    By the river, I'm not sure what bluffs you think he has in his range unless he 3bet you with AK/AQ and has decided to 3barrel bluff all-in. I'd need a really strong read that villain is capable of taking this line (very few people will 3barrel themselves down to the felt) before I was comfortable putting myself into a c/c bluff catching position. You did mention he can fire three bullets - any specifics on the hands you've seen him do this? Having more info on this read will really help us make our decision here because it's going to be extremely player specific.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    players who minraise pre are generally not putting their oppoments on ranges. Also, they are usually not good enough to consider how specific bet sizes are perceived by their opponents. And he's not considering stuff like balancing his 3betting range, like never in a million years.

    I think villain is either playing his own hand (most likely) or he's just a spewmonkey who loves to move his opponents off hands postflop (much less likely).
  • marseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    Thanks Lucas. Very lucid. I totally agree- this is very player specific. I don't take AA/KK out of his range but as long as I think there is at least a 50% chance he is double-barreling with worse or air then I don't see why either a call or ai is not profitable on turn (call especially). Also, his flop and turn bets look strong. In fact, they look like only one thing: AA. But unless he puts me on QQ+, I'm not sure why he's betting pot. I would say my hand is pretty disguised. What am I calling a pot-bet with on turn? KK, maybe QQ? But is my perceived range really that tight? Personally, I think his sizing is out of whack with preflop play. The river bet is of no consequence- the pot is 900+, I have only 300. I think alot of aggro players at this level, once they start down the road, just can't stop. Clearly I am not giving him credit to check river with air.

    I return to my observation made last post: looked at from the villain's perspective, a big turn bet with trip sevens on board screams AA. Most players won't call here. Which is why it's a great place to bluff. As for his capacity to three barrel, I admit that was a guess but his style of play suggests it. He double barreled turn and river in position on flushy board against me with air, pot or 3/4 pot bets both times. He also snap bet out each time. This can mean different things of course but here it looked like he wanted to look strong. Would he play AA/KK exactly the same way here? I don't think so. I just don't see him min-raising here. I probably should have said that sb, the one other caller, was seriously spewing and called everything. Why min-raise here? Along those lines, I have to disagree with whatsyourplay. I think the min-raise is in the toolbox of alot of thinking players. Against certain players in certain situations, it can be tremendously profitable. Including me! (though not this time..) As far as balancing 3bet range, I was thinking in terms of me, not him: whether incorporating double and triple barreling paired boards against certain opponents was something to consider. Cheers-
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    LucasE said

    You say one of your reads is that villain has trouble easing off the aggression and has trouble varying bet amounts. Then you question why he bet so big on the flop. It seems that villain may simply be betting big because he has a big hand. I think taking AA/KK out of his range because he bet big on the flop is really optimistic. I know if I'm in villain's place I like a big bet on the flop because I'm putting you on an overpair to the board that is likely to call or a missed AK/AQ that's going to fold regardless of my bet size.

    The turn continues to tell the same story. Villain 3bet preflop, bet big on the flop and continues to bet big when he turns a full house. He's putting in a pot size bet that's half his remaining stack - I'm inclined to give villain credit for a big hand here and am very likely to fold the turn.

    By the river, I'm not sure what bluffs you think he has in his range unless he 3bet you with AK/AQ and has decided to 3barrel bluff all-in. I'd need a really strong read that villain is capable of taking this line (very few people will 3barrel themselves down to the felt) before I was comfortable putting myself into a c/c bluff catching position. You did mention he can fire three bullets - any specifics on the hands you've seen him do this? Having more info on this read will really help us make our decision here because it's going to be extremely player specific.
    That perfectly summarizes it!
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    marseille said
    I don't take AA/KK out of his range but as long as I think there is at least a 50% chance he is double-barreling with worse or air then I don't see why either a call or ai is not profitable on turn (call especially).
    This is very optimistic IMO.
    marseille said
    Would he play AA/KK exactly the same way here? I don't think so. I just don't see him min-raising here.
    Some bad players do minraise with AA, because they don't want to loose the opponent. Postflop, they then start to bomb each street because they suddenty become afraid to get sucked out on.
    [Example: I recently played a hand at 1/2 where I openraised to 10 with 8d6d and villain on my direct left minraised to 20 (eff. stacks around 800) with AA. I checkraised a Td8s6s board, he called, and when I potted the turn (board was Td8s6s5d !!), he raised me!! With AA!!
    I shoved, he tanked and finally called. So, he lost 400 BB with AA on one of the worst boards possible. There's literally no single hand he can beat that I would play that way. But he doesn't think like this. He has folded for hours to pick up AA, so he's not folding now.]
    marseille said
    I probably should have said that sb, the one other caller, was seriously spewing and called everything. Why min-raise here? Along those lines, I have to disagree with whatsyourplay. I think the min-raise is in the toolbox of alot of thinking players. Against certain players in certain situations, it can be tremendously profitable. Including me! (though not this time..) As far as balancing 3bet range, I was thinking in terms of me, not him: whether incorporating double and triple barreling paired boards against certain opponents was something to consider. Cheers-
    You are definitely correct that there can be some spots where minraising makes sense. Maybe I was a bit unclear. What I intented to say is that with the information provided in the OP, there's no reason to believe that it does make sense, so therefore the likelihood that he's a decent player goes down.
    If there is reason to believe that he is minraising for a purpose, you need to include this.

    Anyways, I feel like we are really overthinking this. He minraised pre and showed extreme strength on all streets. We have a pure bluff catcher, and very few people are bluffing for 4 streets, so this is why it is a clear fold.
  • marseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    This isn't over-thinking; it's situational thinking. This wasn't a clear fold at all. Preflop and postflop just didn't match up. He's not a "bad" player in the sense of a non-reflective player and hardly ever min-raising AA here given the table dynamics. Yet postflop his action indicates AA and only AA (I give zero credit for a 7 and KK would have slowed down). His bet pacing is pure aggression. He snap bets every single street. He is trying too hard to look aggressive. This all just comes down to table dynamics and progressive reads. Given all the factors, his story didn't add up. And I play with a fair number of players who can bluff to the felt. In fact, they seem to enjoy it—in no small part because it works. Against many other players or at different table, THEN it is probably a fold, I agree.
  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    Is villain an aggrofish or competently aggressive? I know he has been caught bluffing but i'm not sure if he is competent or not. My basis of what I would do would depend on that information. Also his past betsizing I would want to know about. does he always bet close to the pot?

    If he is an aggrofish, I just check/call and let him hang himself as played.

    If he always makes potsize bets I don't think I can definitively say he cant have 1010 here. I would bet two streets with 1010(but not potsized) and if this guy always makes potsized bets then I think its a call.

    If this guy doesn't always bet the pot then I think his range is stronger than 1010+, and turn is a fold.

    I don't get why you think KK slows down?
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