This hand has been rattling around in my brain for a few days and I could use some feedback.
Good 2/5 game at local casino with some loose action players. I have about 150bb in HJ, villain in CO covers. I've been active in late position and have kept heat on some of the more passive players at table with flop and turn bets. Villain has also been active in lp, but seems a bit more spewy. He can fire three bullets, but I get the sense he can't always slow down (or vary bet size) once committed. I I haven't seen him 3 bet preflop. I check-called him on river with underpair to flushy board, which seemed to get his attention.
The hand: one limper in ep, Hero raises to 20 with QQ in HJ, V min-raises to 40 in CO, SB calls, Hero calls. Flop comes 772 ($130). Checked to V who bets 110. SB folds, I call. Turn is another 7 ($350). I check again, V bets 320, I tank for a few minutes, then call. River is a blank ($940). I check, he puts me all-in for 300+, I snap-call.
My "line": Initially, I had his 3 bet range fairly narrow, from JJ-AA, AK, maybe AQ. I don't see suited connecters (67or 78) here. The min-raise suggests he wants a max 3 person pot, which suggests big pair ( In these games, I see players min-raise AA/KK more frequently than AK, where they just want to take down pot preflop). On the other hand, if he's holding AA/KK, why so much on paired flop board? On flop, I narrow his range to AK,1010/JJ. I think my hand is relatively disguised. On the turn, I was less sure but decide to commit, figuring he would show up with AA/KK less than 50% of the time here. If I got it all in on turn, I would certainly fold out his air, whereas if I just called, with no showdown value he might turn his hand into a bluff despite weak fold equity (I only had about 300 left).
My question: What do you think the optimal play is here, given the (albeit incomplete) picture painted? This is a hand where intuition and deductive thinking don't always match up.