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Flop NFD and Gutter Deep

GatorXP Posts: 13Subscriber
Set Up:
Villain in this hand is seat 8. Ive played with many times before, has been absent for a few months tho. Aggressive and thinking but very Spew Monkeyish. He was back this weekend and i was amazed at his lack of spewyness on this Friday and Saturday, playing quite well. Some winning play from him finally i thought.

He did manage 3b call AI with me Prefolp and go runner runner with his trash after i flopped 95% equity with AAJT single suited in a 2k pot, a couple hours previously.

I also saw him fail to raise some premium rundowns with at least one nut suit from EP without intention to check raise.

We are down to 4 handed, Game in only staying together due to seat 1.
I almost ended the game a few hands earlier but seat 1 called AI OTT with 5 outs and binked the river. So we continue.

5/5 PLO $2400 effective

Im OTB with A 8 9 2
Both Seat one and I limp, SB limps.
Seat 8 makes it 30 from the BB. Everyone Calls

Flop Q 5 4

SB checks, Villain bets $100. Seat 1 starts to cutout out chips for a raise but ends up folding.

Plan?

Comments

  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    Against a range of AA, KK, and QQ, I like a call here, playing for the value of my draw only. That board is pretty draw heavy, and I wouldn't fold any of those hands in villain's position to a flop raise. Depending on what I thought of you, I might even 3! those hands for value vs. likely draws.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    The only hand you really fear is QQxx, since the other sets are unlikely. Even against a set - the top of his range - you have 66% equity. So, a raise isn't horrible.

    But, I think a call is better with your position. A 6, 7 OTT give you equity and are scare cards you can rep. If he checks the turn, I would bet a spade, 8, 7, 6, or 3.
  • GatorXP Posts: 13Subscriber
    So my thinking while in the hand was, This guys preflop raise is screaming strength, almost always AA or KK, Sure he could have QQ but it would have to be super premium. I need to add some fold Equity here, We are deep he is going to have to fold unless he shows up with QQ or if he goes spew monkey with some other weird spades, i have massive equity.
    I will say that i do not think enough about fold equity on later streets when i flop pretty big like this.

    I dont think he has much of a flop bet call range, Especially with the Q of spades on the board, how is he going to have a Q and a FD. Soo...

    I was going to say he has QQ 10% of the time, but i just dont think its that often. He just doesnt raise light from upfront. So we'll say 1 out of 15.

    That being said Flop Raising looks like this to me after the fact.
    We raise and he folds 92.5% of the time We make $203
    We get it AI with our Equity 7.5% of the time -$29
    So we make $174 by raising if im thinking about it right.

    As far as just calling this is where it gets fuzzy for me.
    Its tough for us to have any implied odds because its tough for him to have a FD. We also let him pick up some equity when we miss.
    It gets to complicated for me i guess to try to figure out the justification for calling being more profitable than raising.

    Help?




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