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Under The Gun Podcast No 27. Embracing The Tilt With Our Old Friend, Chester

Craig Posts: 691Administrator
Joe, "Chester" McClain comes on and talks about embracing our tilt, Bart wants advice about his survival league and EWass and Tuck talk DFS this week on Under The Gun



  • BartBart Posts: 5,840AdministratorLeadPro
    Here the link to the NYTimes article that I read from:

  • BartBart Posts: 5,840AdministratorLeadPro
    edited October 2015

    It is an interesting discussion with regards to David's strategy as to what he "doesn't" like to pick in certain weeks of survivor pools. In terms of game and gambling theory if a team is playing an in division game as a big away favorite--lets say the Patriots at Miami with -7.5 (-340) would we not want to make that pick instead of an obscure out of conference game where the home team is favored by maybe 5.5 at -230? Conversion chart is here:


    The numbers would say that the team favored by -7.5/-340 wins 77.3% of the time (reciprocal of 1/4.3 or "not probability") and the team at 5.5/-230 wins 69.7% of the time (reciprocal of 1/3.3)

    Notice how this is exactly the same math we use translating poker pot odds to equity percentage.

    Thoughts about playing by the math vs some of the intangibles that Dave discusses in contests like this?

  • DavidTuchman Posts: 786Pro
    I don't like to fight vegas...that said, We've seen divisional games play much closer than the talent on the field would suggest it should
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