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Deepstacked PLO - RIVER DECISION

CalgaryPokerGuy Posts: 342Subscriber
$5/5 PLO, fairly deepstacked. We are playing 8 handed, villain in hand is semi-competent regular player, she recently moved over to our main game with $2300. Plays splashy / spewy at times but has been playing a little tighter lately and has been running good for the last month. I have her covered with about $3200.

Button straddle $10, blinds limp (including villain in BB), I limp in mp with JJ66ss. A player in late position makes it $60, 5 limpers including myself call.

(pot $360) Flop 6 5 5

checks to me, I bet $200, folds to villain in BB who calls, heads up.

(pot $760) Turn 2

she checks, I bet $575, she thinks about it and calls. At this point I think there is a small chance she can have a straight flush, but it's much more likely she has hands like 5789, A5xx with diamonds, and sometimes 55. She did limp $10 / call $60 which should reduce 34dd in her hand.

(pot $1910) River is 8

She thinks and bets around $900 (of her $1500ish stack). I think this is a great card to hit her kicker range if she's playing a bare 5 with overs.

QUESTION: is this always a raise for value, always a call because nuts are in her range, or one of those options based on some other thought process? Thanks!

Comments

  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Gross. But we have 6th nuts and a $900 bet is a huge bet in that game regardless of stack sizes. I think I'm just calling river but maybe I'm a nit in 8 handed plo.
  • ILikeGamble Posts: 89Subscriber
    I'd usually lean towards a call. You mentioned shes been playing tighter recently. Unless she's getting extremely spewy all of a sudden when you raise the river, she's not calling with the A high flush on a paired board and i doubt she's even leading with it for over half her stack. She also couldve rivered a straight flush if she had 47dd for an OESFD on the flop. Most Vs in this scenario are checking the river and then making a crying call with the A high flush when you bet. If you reraise her all in, 58 may call. All 3 straight flushes, 55 and 88 are calling. 2 combos of hands you beat, 5 combos of hands that beat you (even though 88 is very unlikely). I think it's almost always a call.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Just to be clear : there are 3 possible straight flushes that beat us , 88 is 3 combos total (we may not want to include all 3 if we are weighting combos), and 55 (1 combo). We beat : 6 combos of 85, 3 combos of 65, neither of which should call a river raise.

    A non-spewey reg is not drawing for an ace high flush on this board.

    Call.
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    edited October 2015
    It's weird that 5x wouldn't lead that flop - it's such a drawy board.
  • CalgaryPokerGuy Posts: 342Subscriber
    edited October 2015
    There are 3 possible straight flushes that beat us (as well as 88), but I seriously discount 47 and 79 because of her turn check / call. I know that she will put me on 5A+ and not continue with many hands which would have those combos in them, unless she's made a flush with a boat redraw (with all overs to the 6). So A457 with, what, 3 diamonds is in there? I don't think so. Maybe 5789 with 79 but that's a very rare combo. Even A588 would maybe continue on the turn with nut diamonds, but this hand is eliminated once the river is 8 ...

    So I think it's a few combos of 34 (because of the preflop call), a 55 combo, and many 5 + 3 overs hands - 5678, 5789, 589T, etc.

    Not leading the flop with a 5 and close kickers is reasonable into 5 players, she may not just want to get raised and gii with that type of hand.

    For what it's worth, I don't think she's ever drawing to naked flush draw, and would fold nut flush on turn without a redraw to a larger full house.

    But I do believe she will call a raise 100% of the time with 58. How do you interpret the blockish bet on the river?
  • YoungGrinder Posts: 210Subscriber
    I would sigh call and then feel like puking once I realized this is probably a fold as I don't even know if I expect 58 to always lead the river. I would think quads and straight flushes would lead out though. Such a gross spot.

    This is why I rarely play deep PLO cuz pokerzzz is hard :cry:
  • High__Rolla Posts: 765Subscriber
    Counting Hold 'em combos can be sometimes be misleading in PLO. I prefer to use the count function on ProPokerTools. I think if she has 65xx, she would have already been more aggressive OTF or OTT, so I discount this. Let's assume that she is playing the top 33% of hands preflop from the BB to count combos:

    33%:58 - 985 combos
    33%:55, 33%:3d4d, 33%:7d4d, 33%:7d9d, 33%:588 - 760 combos

    This shows there are more combos of 85xx than the hands that beat you. So, basically your river decision comes down to how you think she would play 85xx. If you think she takes this line and will call off the extra $600 with huge pot odds, then its a raise.
  • CalgaryPokerGuy Posts: 342Subscriber
    High_Rolla - agreed, at no point did I think she had 65xx. And I like you using ProPokerTools and logic behind it. I simply think the 47 / 79 and 88 combo's are severely discounted by how she played the hand on the turn, and the cards that would have to accompany them. It's hard to make up hands that would take that line with those cards in them.

    I thought her betsize on the river looked block-ish, and that she would shove 55 and straight flush with <1 spr. I do think she leads with 58 as she likely was putting me on 56. Even though she's smart enough to bet-fold in spots, I don't think she ever folds to a raise with 58 with that stack size.

    So I lead towards raise. Just wondering how many people share the same thinking, or are flat calling because we don't have the nuts...

    YoungGrinder - I don't think this is ever a fold but who knows.
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    I don't think you'll be able to come up with a solid conclusion for either way without using player specific reads.

    It's really just a $600 for $600 decision so if her 58 calls are greater than her nutted calls you should raise.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 765Subscriber
    CalgaryPokerGuy said:
    High_Rolla - agreed, at no point did I think she had 65xx. And I like you using ProPokerTools and logic behind it. I simply think the 47 / 79 and 88 combo's are severely discounted by how she played the hand on the turn, and the cards that would have to accompany them. It's hard to make up hands that would take that line with those cards in them.
    Good point. If we assume that she must also have a 5 in her hand to have one of the straight flush combos (due to the flop and turn action), then it reduces to only 327 combos that beat you. It possible that she might have some additional combos with AA, KK, or Ad in them that caused her to play this line. Per my earlier post, there are 985 combos of 33%:58.

    Regardless, it seems like she is about twice as likely to have 85xx than a combo that beats you. This argues for a raise unless you think she can bet/fold the river.

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