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Flop Nuts, Do I still bet river?

Pokerbully Posts: 6Subscriber
edited October 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I'm playing 3-5 spread limit at Casino Arizona. Maximum bet is $500. The relevant opponent has $1,000 to start the hand. I have him covered. I am utg +2 and have winning image. I have Q, J . I open raise for $25 and 3 players behind me call with position. Pot is $100 to the flop. The flop is A K, T. I bet $65 and all three players call. Pot is $360 to turn which is a 7. I bet $225. First player folds, next player calls, and last player folds. This player looks like a pretty tight and solid player. The pot is $810. The river is the Q bringing in the front door flush and 4 to a straight.

My instinct tells me that my opponent would not have called the turn bet with just a flush draw. He has a little less than $700 left.

Should I bet the river?, Fold to a raise?

Comments

  • Hazlitt Posts: 44Subscriber
    If you think he's not calling the turn with a naked flush draw, you only lose to K J , J 9 , J 8 and maybe K 9 and 9 8

    It's unlikely he's taking this line with AA or KK. AK and TT are possible, but still unlikely. He can have A× T× , K J× , K Q× , K× J , A× Q× , or A× J

    You betting three streets on this board after the flush and one-liner comes out looks really strong. Most solid players are folding everything worse to a river bet.

    Since he has more J than J or J in his range, I think this is a check-call.

    Bet-folding allows him try to bet you off a chop with his non-flush J hands. Checking might induce an overplay if he thinks you are afraid of the flush or straight. You also lose the same amount if he has the flush and might win an extra bet from him if he makes a play at it with two-pair or set.
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