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Took a shot at 10-20 -- Interesting Spot

PocketAceTrader782 Posts: 439Subscriber
edited October 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
10-20 NL. $4000 Effective. The Circuit Event is in town. This game will normally be awful, but its 1am during the circuit and the game is really good.

I have K Q . UTG old man rich coffee reg raises to $70. I call in the CO. BB calls (big calling station, doesn't value bet light, calls down light, very typical player).

Pot $220 Flop comes 10 9 3

BB checks, UTG bets out $130. I decide to raise to $400 (thoughts ?). BB flat calls $400.
UTG guy folds.

Pot $1150. Turn: 8 . BB checks. I bet $1000. He thinks for a while, he asks me much I have left. I just move my hand and let him look himself. Thats just my style, I never like to answer the question verbally. He asks the dealer how much I have because he says he couldn't see. The dealer says about $2500. After some deliberation he decided to call.

Pot $3350. River 9 . BB leads for $1000. I have $2500 left. Whats your play here?

Carmine
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Comments

  • Dab44 Posts: 408Subscriber
    Seems like a blockerish bet..kind of setting his own price. I would think his sizing would be larger if he were full..
    He doesn't have nut flush.. He would c/r that all day..
    His line could be consistent with top two, until the river comes.. I mostly dismiss 9 10 with the river sizing.. Slowplayed set of 33 on the flop possible. However, he would probably 3bet you on the flop (board is wet).
    His range is weighted to smaller flushes, maybe QJ strait, and rarely a full house..
    Are you good 50% of the time on the river?
    It may be thin and a higher variant line to raise..
    I would say your good at least 50% of the time and you could ship..
  • Jonw23 Posts: 175SubscriberProfessional
    I agree this bet looks blockerish but raising would be an overplay, because you block a lot of nut flushes that V opens from that spot. I think calling is the right play here.
  • tomorrow33tomorrow33 Posts: 485Subscriber
    edited October 2015
    @dab44 I think you may be confused with how the 50% equation works with raising the river. Because we can just flat call the river given the odds and take down the pot, when we raise we need to be able to (when called) be good more than 50% of the time. Yeah we may be good here enough to call the river bet but we have to look at what hands will call us if we ship the river. Can we get called by a straight? A smaller flush? Or will we only get called by a full house. If we can only get called by a better hand then raising river is a big spew.

    As for the hand as played. Yeah the OMCs river bet is small in relation to the pot, it's still a big bet for live poker. What kind of hands is he blocking the river with that we beat? Is he really blocking with the straight (QJ)? Your hand looks exactly like a flush and his bet is just screaming that he wants a call. Why also would he want to know your stack size on the turn of he had a straight? Is he turning a pair of Aces with the A of into a bluff on the river?

    And how does he have a smaller flush? Is OMC raising UTG with J9? 67? Check calling turn and now leading river?

    I could see him playing AJ this way and is now worried that you'll check back the river because the board has paired so he's leading out small to get paid by a smaller flush.

    You have all the combos of flopped sets in your range as well that bet large on the turn to "protect"/get value from over pairs with a .

    I agree that if he flopped a set (99/TT, 33 unlikely because I don't think he opens this UTG) he would have most likely 3-bet the flop but I think some combos he definitely could play slower. Explains the reason behind wanting to know your stack size on the turn of he's working out the odds he needs to fill up if you made your flush.

    Do you have anymore info on this guy? Any other hands you played with him or tendencies you saw? I don't play at those limits so I don't know the dynamic of how OMC plays at those levels (I'd think the standard would be much better than the $5 blind level) but I just don't know if he's betting this small with a hand we beat... It'd be such a weird bluff because your hand looks like a flush and he would ever expect anyone to fold a flush for that sizing. With out hand and the board runout we basically block all of the smaller flushes he could have so even though we're getting 4.3:1 I don't know about this one...
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    your turn bet was so big. why??? after I think you have to call river
  • tomorrow33tomorrow33 Posts: 485Subscriber
    Thehammah said:
    your turn bet was so big. why??? after I think you have to call river
    What's your reasoning behind Carmine having to call river?
  • 1. Don't like flop raise as OMC's range is strong and BB is a station.

    2. V's underbet is weird but since we have no read as to what it means and since we're taking a shot and probably prefer a lower variance route - we call. We definitely have the odds to call and he will be value betting worse often enough. In any case, I highly doubt raising here is optimal even though BB is described as a station.

    3. There seems to be some confusion between the two Vs in this thread. Please reread OP.
  • tomorrow33tomorrow33 Posts: 485Subscriber
    JapanTown said:
    .

    3. There seems to be some confusion between the two Vs in this thread. Please reread OP.
    I definitely was reading as if OMC was the Villian on the river. Didn't realise he probbaky folded turn.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    Carmine
    First - congrats on having the "huevos" for taking a shot at a bigger game during the WSOPC. You've got a great game (and skills) so I'm sure you fit right in.

    Next...
    I agree with most about the flop raise. Maybe it's a move a lot of players are doing in the bigger game - but since you were "gapped" - I don't like it. If you had Q J - (15+ outs) then I like it tons more. But here, I'm not so sure why you couldn't smooth call. (would nut flush draws really fold here?)

    Ok...
    now on to the turn/river.
    you make is sound like BB is a spot... but anytime I hear one guy ask for chip counts (when he's not raising) it's because he wondering about RIOs. He's either got 2-pair/set and wonders if he hits if he can get paid. Or maybe the A X× and wondering if a fourth club comes, can he make some $$$.
    So to me, that's a "thinking player" (which is typical for 10/20 unless he's a celebrity/sports player). Which means that the river bet isn't for show.

    Speaking of river bet - you said this guy is a "calling station that doesn't value bet light."
    So that probably means that he's not betting QJ, 76 or even, A9... right?
    So what does that leave him with?
    Overpairs? nah... that's just plain silly...
    Flushes?... AJ, A9, A7, A6, etc.... J9 or J7... 97, 96... 7X...
    (seems to me there are more reasonable A X hands than smaller flushes)
    FH? TT, 88, 33, 98, T9
    Quads? 99

    Missed flushes - A X× or 9X hands
    Good 10/20 players should be able to use the PLO "nut card" concept with the naked A to know you don't have the nut flush. But I would think they would be good enough to make your river decision a LOT tougher than $1000 into a $3350 pot (of course there's always that "underbluff" when he's thinking that you're thinking he's got to be nutted to bet this.... yikes!)

    Which brings me to your original description... "doesn't value bet light"...
    He cold-called your monster bet on the flop (after OR bet) and made a deliberate decision to call your turn bet after calculating the odds.
    I think he's got to be nutted to donk bet river, hoping that 4:1 odds are enough for you to call.
    I have a very hard time making up a hand that someone might play here that you beat.

    I read on 2+2 about a new theorem which talks about guys who check/call 3 streets of betting/raising and then "wake up" on the river to donk lead are usually repping a monster hand that beats a single pair. Obviously - in your case, you've got a good flush - so you're not as far behind as the theorem suggests. But me thinks that this bet is too polarizing for the average CLPer to properly analyze.

    Online - it's a numbers game - you have to call.
    But live... I think you can find a fold IF YOU think he's never bluffing here.
    I originally thought that you have to call - to avoid being bluffed later (image) - esp after you've shown such strength. But now, I'm really on the fence...
    Sorry... don't think I've helped much... :frown:
  • PocketAceTrader782 Posts: 439Subscriber
    edited October 2015
    On the flop. I have played with the OMC many times before. What I have noticed about him is that on draw heavy boards he wants to protect his overpairs if thats what he has. I know 130 into 220 isn't the smallest bet in the world, but I felt he had an overpair he would bet more than that and I can fold out alot of his AK, AQ type of hands (even though I block some of those combos). I felt I could take it down alot here even with the rec player behind. But I was kind of debating with myself on that.

    When the rec player called the 400 and the OMC folded, I felt the rec player was pretty strong. If the turn was a brick, and he checked, I was well prepared to take the free card because I didn't think I had any fold equity against this player after he called the 400.

    On the turn: The 1000 bet might have been a little big, but I felt that he was strong when he overcalled the 400 on the flop, and he would continue on. I was actually setting up a shove on the river, and I think this player would call me down with two pair or a set. I was saying to myself on the river "give me a brick, give me a brick".

    The river paired the 9. Then he leads out for $1000.

    Carmine
  • maphacks Posts: 1,992Subscriber
    call
  • flyingtriangleflyingtriangle Posts: 101Subscriber
    If BB is a station then he can have pretty much all combos of small suited cards in his range for calling the extra $50 preflop. I think he can have a lot of smaller flushes here. Definitely wouldn't fold river getting this price.

    It doesn't seem like there's much value in raising, but if the guy is a complete station maybe we could consider clicking it back to get a crying call from a flush. Sucks if he bet/3bets and we have to fold for our last $1,500, but I can't imagine he's ever coming back over the top without a full house anyway. Even so, I feel like raising is probably too optimistic. I vote call.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    *grunch*

    What is villain check/overcalling the flop with? You've got to suspect he'd raise a set there, so you're really only worried about T9 and the NFD. There are a ton of lower flush draws he could have, but he's going to have some propensity to raise a flush on the turn, so maybe that should be discounted? On the turn, it really feels like he was asking to see your stack to determine if he had the right implied odds to try and boat up against a flush.

    While some might interpret his river bet as a blocker bet, it feels to me like a "I need to get value and don't want this to get checked through" bet. You need to be up against a smaller flush 1 in 4ish times. I'm really thinking you're beat here, and should probably fold. But I certainly wouldn't fault you for calling. (Raising is out of the question IMO - you can't get called by worse once the board pairs.)
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    tomorrow33 said:
    Thehammah said:
    your turn bet was so big. why??? after I think you have to call river
    What's your reasoning behind Carmine having to call river?
    I am of course making a big assumption.. and this is that this villain would block bet 1000 with a hand weaker than carmines.. If that is not possible then its an easy fold..

    however if this guy has any spaz factor or his tank on the turn seemed genuine then I am way more inclined to call.

    All of this said I am not sure why Carmine would bet so big on the turn.. When he bets pot its just soo soo much harder to get called by worse.. and we all know that OMC just love love to slowplay their monsters ..

    ww
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    PocketAceTrader782 said:
    On the flop. I have played with the OMC many times before. What I have noticed about him is that on draw heavy boards he wants to protect his overpairs if thats what he has. I know 130 into 220 isn't the smallest bet in the world, but I felt he had an overpair he would bet more than that and I can fold out alot of his AK, AQ type of hands (even though I block some of those combos). I felt I could take it down alot here even with the rec player behind. But I was kind of debating with myself on that.

    When the rec player called the 400 and the OMC folded, I felt the rec player was pretty strong. If the turn was a brick, and he checked, I was well prepared to take the free card because I didn't think I had any fold equity against this player after he called the 400.

    On the turn: The 1000 bet might have been a little big, but I felt that he was strong when he overcalled the 400 on the flop, and he would continue on. I was actually setting up a shove on the river, and I think this player would call me down with two pair or a set. I was saying to myself on the river "give me a brick, give me a brick".

    The river paired the 9. Then he leads out for $1000.

    Carmine

    Rec players could have a 9 or that makes them two pairs.. who the fuck knows.. thats why sometimes you have to throwup and call..

    besides do you think this rec player when he fills up is going to know "Hey carmine only has 2500 left but if I ship he might fold"

    HELL NO!!!


    so yes this indicates some kind of value hand ..but again I think you just have to call..

    I am not surprised to see lots of 9 combos.. Q9 J9 A9 etc... or A T etc...

    ww
  • Sonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    edited October 2015
    FWIW, just because the villain asked to see how much our hero was playing, it dosen't necessarly mean anything. Lots of live players do that just because they've seen pros do it, or just to know how much the hand might cost him. As described I really don't give him credit to be calculating his implied odds. As Tuckman has said, "don't assume other players think the way you/we do".
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    Mjriemen said:
    FWIW, just because the villain asked to see how much our hero was playing, it dosen't necessarly mean anything. Lots of live players do that just because they've seen pros do it, or just to know how much the hand might cost him. As described I really don't give him credit to be calculating his implied odds. As Tuckman has said, "don't assume other players think the way you/we do".
    good point.. Most of the time thats because they are on a draw.. NOT when they have a monster.. Think about it.. have you ever heard a rec player tank ask you how much you have then make a value bet??

    sure pros do it all the time.. I see really really good tourney players do this.. but in a cash game?? as a rec player? no way.. they want to shovel their chips in when they hit a full house..

    ww
  • PocketAceTrader782 Posts: 439Subscriber
    Thehammah said:
    tomorrow33 said:
    Thehammah said:
    your turn bet was so big. why??? after I think you have to call river
    What's your reasoning behind Carmine having to call river?
    I am of course making a big assumption.. and this is that this villain would block bet 1000 with a hand weaker than carmines.. If that is not possible then its an easy fold..

    however if this guy has any spaz factor or his tank on the turn seemed genuine then I am way more inclined to call.

    All of this said I am not sure why Carmine would bet so big on the turn.. When he bets pot its just soo soo much harder to get called by worse.. and we all know that OMC just love love to slowplay their monsters ..

    ww
    Hey Wendy, I just whated to clarify that there seems to be some confusion in this thread. The OMC guy folded on the flop. The Villian in the BB is a station rec player. As the OP says.

    You make a very good point regarding the size of my bet on the turn. At the time, I wanted to go for gold against this guy and setup a river shove on a brick because A) he is so bad and b) I thought his flat of $400 on the flop was strong.

    But, I completely agree with your saying that It's much harder to get called with by that sizing.

    Thanks!!

    Carmine.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    Carmine
    The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that he's nutted.
    Most 10/20 players are only calling your flop raise with either a set or the 9
    That means that he's got TT, 99, 33 or A 9, J 9 or 9 7
    The only other non-9 hand that makes sense is Q J - which we block.

    T9 is also a very big possibility - but it would have to be suited.
    So that would be only leave T 9 and T 9.
    And after your turn bomb - he'd have to be a real big spot to call when the str8 and flush get there. So I'd think that combo is unlikely.

    Against this range - we only beat J9 and 97. And lose to 3 combos of TT, 1 of 99, 3 combos of 33 and 1 combo of A9s.
    I'm not a big fan of those odds.
    I don't think the 1k is a blocker bet - but a value bet.
    And in most cases, it's because he doesn't want it to get checked thru.
    I would think he would check all his flushes and just use them to bluff-catch.
    which means that he would only bet his FHs or quads.
    Unless there's a leveling war going on here - I don't see how we can call.

    As far as @Mjriemen comment about all players don't think like we do - I tend to agree. But more so at the lower limits. This is ten-freaking-twenty NL :eek: meaning that most of these players are walking around with 10-20k in their pockets. So unless this guy was the owner of White Castle or a degenerate gambler - I think we can safely make an assumption that he's not trying to make moves that he's seen on TV, and he has some knowledge of pot odd, pot equity and reverse implied odds. My experience has been that a "very typical player" who plays 5/10 and above does not think like a 1/2 or 2/5 player. But I might be wrong in this case....
  • aaron Posts: 498Subscriber
    I would think most Rec players are 3b sets/2 pair on flop. Initial feeling is his range is heavily weighted towards the nfd. AcT and JQ are potentially in his range and may play the hand like this depending on how bad villian is (sometimes these guys just bet merged bc they don't know what else to do) but that is doubtful given the strength you've shown. All of the Broadway fds are blocked so he basically has Axcc and a few fds you beat (j9, 79,67,65,54). If we give him every Axcc (7 combos) and maybe 3 combos we beat (doesn't play all his flushes in this way all the time) then we're good here 30% of the time. getting 4:1 we have to call.

    The crux of the decision is how often he cold calls non nut fds. If he folds out a few fds on flop and only continues with say j9/79 then this is closer to a fold. If he has a propensity to slow play sets its def a fold.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    snap call. IF(cooler == true) { bad_luck = 1} else { bad_luck = 0}
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