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NFD facing xR

firespitter Posts: 243Subscriber
5/5 plo with $10 utg straddle. 5 handed. I sit with around 3k, V covers. I've played with V a lot at NLHE, and he is very tough, hard to figure out. Generally somewhat tag but can make big bluffs and very good at putting opponents in tough spots. Hand reads very well. He views hero as kind of a nit.

Anyway he returns to the table from a break and puts up a dead 20 utg blind. I'm otb with AdQd8s6s and I pot to 80. Obviously not a great hand but I have the button...thoughts?
All others fold, V calls. I think his 3-bet frequency is 0 in this spot so I have no reads on his hand other than he decided to play it.
Flop(180): KdQsJd.
V checks, I bet 135, V raises to 600. I call, brick turn, and I have to fold to his pot bet on the turn.

After the hand I was wondering if I actually have good fold equity in this spot if I re-pot flop. If I were to treat this as a Holdem hand where I have AQdd and he has AT, I'd have 42% equity.
When he check raises should I give him credit for nuts+redraw? I think he would have to credit me with this holding if I came over the top, and maybe I get enough folds to justify this play. At the time I felt like I didn't want to overplay and risk my 3k stack, but maybe I need to sack up and put the pressure on him. Maybe more experienced PLO players can better estimate my fold equity vs how often I'm up against straight + set.

Comments

  • scourrge Posts: 29Subscriber
    Pre is fine. We have a reasonably playable hand if we can get HU, and being IP makes it fairly standard imo. How I react to a 3b depends loads on villain's preflop tendencies, but I'm usually not folding a hand I'm willing to raise pre.

    The main problem with this hand is that we block everything except for the current nuts. I'm not saying he has nuts + redraw, but I think it's incredibly likely he has T9 or AT in his hand. He's not going to play sets this aggressively on this board if he's as good as you say, and we block almost every combo draw he can have. Plus this is a board where it's difficult to semibluff anything in the first place because the nut straight is broadway. So if he has a bare T with a K, Q, or J, he's not going to ever take this line, even with a T-hi FD, because he gets it in absolutely crushed way too often.

    Off the top of my head I don't know what our immediate decision on the flop should be, but I don't think we should assume any implied odds since he's supposedly pretty good. I'm usually taking the same line as you I think, but it could definitely be a fold.

    Keep in mind I'm a relative PLO newb. =]
  • firespitter Posts: 243Subscriber
    Thanks for comment. What I was really wondering here is if he folds a bare nut straight... Seeing me as pretty tight and giving me credit for nut straight +NFD... Which I think I rep pretty hard if I re-pot. Or is he just never going to xr with a hand he's not willing to get it in with...
  • tomorrow33tomorrow33 Posts: 485Subscriber
    firespitter said:
    Thanks for comment. What I was really wondering here is if he folds a bare nut straight... Seeing me as pretty tight and giving me credit for nut straight +NFD... Which I think I rep pretty hard if I re-pot. Or is he just never going to xr with a hand he's not willing to get it in with...
    Never. He's flopped the nuts. Its heads up so he's always getting it all in. I don't know if I've ever seen someone flop the nuts heads up and fold.
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    tomorrow33 said:
    firespitter said:
    Thanks for comment. What I was really wondering here is if he folds a bare nut straight... Seeing me as pretty tight and giving me credit for nut straight +NFD... Which I think I rep pretty hard if I re-pot. Or is he just never going to xr with a hand he's not willing to get it in with...
    Never. He's flopped the nuts. Its heads up so he's always getting it all in. I don't know if I've ever seen someone flop the nuts heads up and fold.
    This. If he does have AT, he's sticking it in happily every day of the week. His check/raise with AT gets value from NFD, T9, and all sets. I think if he has a set or T9 he's probably check/calling flop anyway, not check/raising.

    So the bottom line is he has AT 99% of time and he's never folding.
  • Dusty Posts: 233Subscriber
    hand really can't stand a c/r, so I prefer taking the weaker line of c/b flop. We can also bet call if we are capable and willing to bluff when the board pairs. anyone like these thoughts?
  • firespitter Posts: 243Subscriber
    Yeah, give me my cards back, I check.
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