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firespitter Posts: 243Subscriber
5/5 PLO with a $10 button straddle. Blinds fold, I limp utg with QQT9cc. 3 more limps, and button makes it 60. I call, 2 limper call, then HJ(500) pots it to 370. Button (650) shoves. The two limpets yet to speak have 1800 and 900 respectively and I cover.
HJ and button are both capable of being very good players, but also have a lot of gamble in them and are capable of random spaz. Both stuck and likely tilting.

So, with the overlay is it worth the gamble to put it in here? How much equity do you expect to have in this spot, and how concerned would you be about the bigger stacks behind?

Comments

  • GatorXP Posts: 13Subscriber
    edited October 2015
    Its not terrible, the EV will be close but you will still be a bit behind most likely if it goes 3 ways.....You hand is most likely ahead of the limpers yet to go, you need to be sure at least one is coming along to make it profitable and still then will be only thinly or at all.
    All that being said if someone has your FD covered your screwed in terms of EV.

    Clear Fold IMO

    BTW Ive made this mistake before 5 ways with KQQT ss,
    Behind thinly but still behind.
  • firespitter Posts: 243Subscriber
    So the situation I had imagined is I shove, both limpets fold. At this point we would have a dead pot of 300, 440x3 for main and 400ish on the side. So I'm risking 600 more to potentially win 1350. I was hoping to get to an approach of approximating my equity, which im not good at in Omaha, especially multiway. You may have gathered that I do not give these players just premium ranges, though I obviously could run into AA and be in bad shape.

    Spoiler:
    I fold, limpers fold. The two players both have disconnected crap with not one overcard between them! I think it was JT84 vs T865 both single suited if I'm remembering right. They run it twice and I would have scooped with flush and straight respectively. So I had a spot where I folded in fear of a dominating hand, where in fact I dominate. But my question remains: how should I go about approximating my equity here, giving my opponents non-premium ranges (though AA certainly possible) also the limper with 1800 was a concern since I didn't want to risk his stack. But how likely is he to actually have AA or KK with his limp/call line with those effective stacks?
  • GatorXP Posts: 13Subscriber
    edited October 2015
    Looks like about 33% to me, if your FD is no good....26%

    The likely hood and the range of the player involved in the hand, is most closely only known by you, And thats the variable that cant be known, but you have the most info on.
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    TBH, hands like yours don't do that well as far as having a big equity advantage when all in pre-flop. So you either need some dead money in there or some gamble in you. Maybe there's no equity edge at all but having a +$2000 stack increase in a capped game can make the play worth it.

    Let's say you know these guys wouldn't limp AA or KK the first time so you know they're not limp re-raising. We can give them 55% hand ranges excluding AA and KK and excluding the top 10% of hands (they would have raised) and include 1 suit.

    PLAYER_1 QT:ccQ9
    PLAYER_2 10%-55%!AA!KK:xx
    PLAYER_3 10%-55%!AA!KK:yy

    All-in Equity
    image


    The tl;dr cliffs are that in these multiway AIPF pots you pretty much want to be the guy with AA.

    PLAYER_1 AA:cc
    PLAYER_2 10%-55%!AA!KK:xx
    PLAYER_3 10%-55%!AA!KK:yy

    All-in Equity
    image
  • Dusty Posts: 233Subscriber
    i think lower run downs are best to gambol in these situations, and pairs in our hand kill us vs. bigger pairs. 2 soots are better also - we are probably dominated here in some way if not a couple ways.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    edited October 2015
    Good analysis, @BradleyT. The interesting part is that, if we assume the other two limpers fold, it is +EV to call here albeit with very high variance. (But, that's why we love PLO, right)

    I'll be lazy and take a short-cut by assuming everyone had $500 stacks rather than calculate the main and side pots:

    EV = 0.3494 ($1180) - 0.6506 ($440)
    EV = $126
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