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SPR 3 check K high flop with aces?

ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I have been at this table all day and have a great image. Big stack of over 1200 after starting with 500. 2/5 NL at Sands Bethlehem.

Villain is a very loose player who just loves suited cards connecting or otherwise. he has about 350 to start the hand.

These games are very passive and I wonder if thats because they are 10 handed tables. Its limped 6 ways by time I see AA in the sb and I really have a choice.. Make a small raise and have everyone call or make a big raise and maybe not get any callers. I decide to protect my stack instead and raise to 55. Villain is the only caller.

Flop K 5 7 r.. So with his call of 55 he only has about 300 left. Would you check the flop to maybe get some value later or just lead?

ww
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Comments

  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    How about leading small?
    If the flop goes c/c, then you have to bet $100 then $200 to get stacks in by the river. Betting $60-70 will make it easier for him to call 3 streets with Kx.
    C/R looks stronger and probably gets most Ks other than AK to fold.
    I think you can mix things up by check/calling some of the time, but as a default I would lead flop. Check/call, lead turn still looks strong and you take more risk of a negative equity slow play on later streets.
  • RecreationalRogerRecreationalRoger Posts: 789Subscriber
    I was thinking same thing as schmed - lead for about 1/2 pot.
  • BigOwl Posts: 80Member
    While I don't think leading small is real bad, I don't think it's necessary. He's most likely only calling if he has a King, and if he does he's not folding it if you bet 80. He can't have a flush draw, and straight draws are also unlikely so you're not trying to get called by draws. If you think he's the type to call with a second pair hand like TT 99, if you bet smaller then there is some merit to that, but I think I still use this as a chance to get more money in faster hoping he has a King.

    Al
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I don't think he's putting you on a range even though you 3-bet pre, so if you just keep betting small, he'll probably keep calling down with any pair.

    If you check, it still might be a challenge to get stacks in by the river because you would have to bet really big for two streets
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Claire

    You are absolutely correct. He is not putting me on anything. this guy was the biggest spot at the table and just loved those suited cards I was hoping the board wouldnt be that dry.. I honestly doubt he would play any king unless it was like Kx suited.. and he would call the flop at least.. I think he also realized that I was one of the most active raisers at the table. so I am sure that came into it as well.

    So I decided to bet 80 on the flop and he folded as I was getting the chips in the pot. *sigh*

    not much else I think I could have done there. I certainly dont want to play AA oop with 5 others..

    On another note I wasnt balancing my raises yesterday either. If I did have a big hand in ep I went ahead and made a rather big raise.. I wont see these folks probably anytime soon so what does it matter? The rest of the time it seemed I could outplay everyone when I raised to 20 against even a couple limpers..

    ww
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    plan the hand out after he calls your preflop raise. there is $300 effective remaining. try betting $50, $95, $155 if you think he'll call down with a K. you're basically not folding ever right? you don't need fold equity and you have three streets to get stacks in.

    i've done this same thing where i bet less than my preflop raise on the flop, and was still easily able to get stacks in by river (and was called by worse). this is almost like a 3bet pot since your pfr was so large -- you can bet smaller than a standard single raised pot. remember, you are trying to get called by worse, including Ks and pocket pairs.
  • BartBart Posts: 6,078AdministratorLeadPro
    I like paying that trippy trap game more in 3 and 4 bet pots on boards that shouldn't hit your range like, say ragged boards. Usually you are dealing with much lower SPRs when the pot is bloated in those spots. Here, i'd just bet small, maybe $50-$75, make it look like you are scared or that you have missed. Hopefully he'll piece off on the flop.

    Bart
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Thehammah said
    I really have a choice.. Make a small raise and have everyone call or make a big raise and maybe not get any callers. I decide to protect my stack
    I hate this thought process. What I would think is "how much I'm raising here with AK?" and "do I ever bluff here and if yes to which size?"
    Also you always should make most +EV plays. "Protecting your stack" has nothing to do with EV.
  • BigOwl Posts: 80Member
    Just a note this isn't a 3 bet pot it was limped and then she raised.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    TDF said
    Thehammah said
    I really have a choice.. Make a small raise and have everyone call or make a big raise and maybe not get any callers. I decide to protect my stack
    I hate this thought process. What I would think is "how much I'm raising here with AK?" and "do I ever bluff here and if yes to which size?"
    Also you always should make most +EV plays. "Protecting your stack" has nothing to do with EV.
    TDF

    If I raised to say anything less than what I did.. I would be playing AA 6 ways. how could that possibly be +EV? Again these ppl have never seen me , I dont live in the area and dont play there every day.. They are not paying attention. I had been very active at this table and there are some players that have over 1000+ behind.

    I am not in the business of building a pot for someone else to win. I want to win and to do that from the sb I had to raise an amount that I thought would thin the field. I had raised to 45 before in a similar spot with AQ and everyone called.

    ww
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    Thehammah said
    TDF said
    Thehammah said
    I really have a choice.. Make a small raise and have everyone call or make a big raise and maybe not get any callers. I decide to protect my stack
    I hate this thought process. What I would think is "how much I'm raising here with AK?" and "do I ever bluff here and if yes to which size?"
    Also you always should make most +EV plays. "Protecting your stack" has nothing to do with EV.
    TDF

    If I raised to say anything less than what I did.. I would be playing AA 6 ways. how could that possibly be +EV? Again these ppl have never seen me , I dont live in the area and dont play there every day.. They are not paying attention. I had been very active at this table and there are some players that have over 1000+ behind.

    I am not in the business of building a pot for someone else to win. I want to win and to do that from the sb I had to raise an amount that I thought would thin the field. I had raised to 45 before in a similar spot with AQ and everyone called.

    ww
    I agree Wendy. There is no need to balance your raising range between AA and AK/other hands here if you have never played in that room and probably never will again. Even if other players are paying attention, your EP open sample size will be so small that it's meaningless.

    55 would be a pretty standard raise OOP after 6 limpers anyway ($25 + $5 for each limper)
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    TDF said
    Thehammah said
    I really have a choice.. Make a small raise and have everyone call or make a big raise and maybe not get any callers. I decide to protect my stack
    I hate this thought process. What I would think is "how much I'm raising here with AK?" and "do I ever bluff here and if yes to which size?"
    Also you always should make most +EV plays. "Protecting your stack" has nothing to do with EV.
    So on another note of "protecting my stack"

    If I am playing in a very deep game and on saturday I was. Most of the players had over 500 and I think 4 of us had over 1000 I think you need to start thinking of protecting stacks along with +EV. As an example, say a play is slightly positive EV but a good majority of the time you will stack off is that always the way to play?

    There are many situations in poker where a play is +EV but I still wouldnt make it because a high percentage of the time I will lose my entire stack. Not only is that bad in that hand.. but it will severely affect my future EV with a bad image. With my positive image I was able to pretty much do whatever I wanted at the table and that will make me alot more money in the long run imho.

    TDF, I get the feeling that you play much much higher than most of us in this forum. I can only think that because of this the plays you must make to be a winning player have to be more sophisticated and more balanced. That just isnt needed or will actually backfire in this level of a game. Many of those types of plays would just go over the heads of most players and when they cant understand something they will just call.

    ww
  • I make it the same pre and then I bet the same on the flop, $55. He's calling with any piece and I think it would be a challenge to get it in without betting the flop. If he had like $200 I'd just check and bet turn and river.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    ww,
    I don't mind the size I just think your thought process was flawed.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Thehammah said
    If I raised to say anything less than what I did.. I would be playing AA 6 ways. how could that possibly be +EV?
    You win less often but you win more money when you win. It's quite possible that this is +EV in the long run.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Thehammah said
    There are many situations in poker where a play is +EV but I still wouldnt make it because a high percentage of the time I will lose my entire stack.
    I have a feeling that this might be a mistake but I don't think I can prove it to you. It just protecting your stack feels so natural to do (for humans) and most of the natural things are mistakes in poker. That's why poker so profitable. So I'm not sure that poker playing robot would try to sacrifice EV to protect his stack.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    So I have a degree in Econ/Math but I am not a weeds math kinda person but more practical. I think of it this way.

    Say I can make a play that is $50 +EV but half the time I lose $1000.. Should I make this play? In theory it is a +EV play but to me its just not worth ENOUGH to make the play.

    I would rather pick a spot that maybe +500 EV to risk my stack half the time.. That is what I see the difference in the AA hand.

    I make other financial decisions not on purely if they will make me money but what will make me the MOST money.. So the AA hand is an example of playing to win a little (or maybe even a lot less) but not losing the $1000 (not that I am stacking off with the AA but just an example)

    Then lets extend this a bit further. The game I was playing in was a $500 max buy in and I lose my stack making the play. I rebuy and then flop a set against a player who has $1500 in front of them. So now instead of not losing $1000 and then winning $1500 I am still lose $500.. (-1000+500= $500). the potential +EV on hands while I am a big stack are exaggerated and another reason to "protect" my stack for future more +EV spots..

    my thinking could be in error but this seems pretty logical to me ..

    ww
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Thehammah said
    Say I can make a play that is $50 +EV but half the time I lose $1000.. Should I make this play? In theory it is a +EV play but to me its just not worth ENOUGH to make the play.
    So, you are saying you not going to flip a coin putting $1000 vs $1100? That's your personal choice and you have all rights to do so but this is a clear mistake from game theory point of view. I personally would snap quit my job and sold my house to do those flips :)
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Thehammah said
    my thinking could be in error but this seems pretty logical to me ..
    You need to learn not to trust your logic. Read "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman for more on this topic.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    TDF said
    Thehammah said
    Say I can make a play that is $50 +EV but half the time I lose $1000.. Should I make this play? In theory it is a +EV play but to me its just not worth ENOUGH to make the play.
    So, you are saying you not going to flip a coin putting $1000 vs $1100? That's your personal choice and you have all rights to do so but this is a clear mistake from game theory point of view. I personally would snap quit my job and sold my house to do those flips :)
    The reason why I pick spots is because I do not have a limitless bankroll that I bring to the table. If I bring say 2000 and have an atm card with me that means in general I have 2500 dollars to play in this session (unless I borrow or go home and come back). So I take a couple of these thin flips and keep losing my stack and I bust and have to leave.. These arent too +EV but I take them and lose and now I am busted..

    I leave and now the person who takes my seat flops the nuts and a couple of sets and wins the jackpot!..lol extreme I know but the whole point of picking the most +EV spot is because we dont have an infinite amount of bankroll. No one does.. So you try to pick the ones you feel most comfortable about.

    Your scenario is perfect if someone had an infinite opportunity to flip and yes you would take it every time. But since that never happens in practice you cant think of it purely in theory terms. Thats what I think of what I take the most away from my math background.. application as apposed to theory

    ww
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