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KQo rivers 2-pair vs. 3-barrel donk bet

jmc Posts: 58Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
7-handed, 1/2NL in New Mexico. My image should be very tight.
Villain in hand is possibly tilting semi-loose reg. A few hands ago, he lost $200 calling a turn check-raise from someone who called a preflop raise w/ A9o and turned top 2-pair. Somehow he had 43 (suited? unsuited?) in the hand, and another player asked to see his cards (laggy rec player w/ a cowboy hat). The two men got into an argument, and floor was called over. Floor ends up announcing that villain had 43 (she saw the cards), but cards were irretrievable in the muck after some shenanigans.

He rebuys for $200 and this is the effective stack.

2 limpers, I raise on the button w/ KQo to $12. Villain in the BB calls and CO limper calls. $36 pot.

Flop is Kc5s4d.

Villain donks for $9, CO folds, I call. Pot is $54.

Turn is 6s.
Villain leads for $30, I call. Pot is $114. (About $150 remaining stacks)

River is Qs
Villain leads for $30.....

Should I be raising this river for value, or is a call more prudent?

Should I be raising at any other point in this hand?

Comments

  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    I would raise/fold flop. This is blocking bet with weak pair or 2pair+ inducing raise bet. Raise to 25-30.
    I think you have the best hand OTR very often and I would go AI to get calls from weaker 2pair.
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    jmc said

    Villain in hand is possibly tilting semi-loose reg.

    2 limpers, I raise on the button w/ KQo to $12. Villain in the BB calls and CO limper calls. $36 pot.

    Flop is Kc5s4d.

    Villain donks for $9, CO folds...
    At this point in the hand, I'm using my read of villain to determine what his 1/4 pot donk bet means, other than weakness. For instance, is he betting a 4 to "find out where he's at" and will fold to a raise? Have you ever seen him continue to barrel on future streets with weak holdings, or does he fire one weak bet and then give up?

    If he's semi-loose, and will continue in the hand with any pair because he's tilting and "doesn't believe you," then you have to raise this bet so you can get all the money in by the river. I would raise this to $25 or $30. When called, there will be $86-$96 in the pot, and you should easily be able to get all or almost all of villain's stack in the middle with a worse Q or any other trash holding he has.
    jmc said

    Should I be raising this river for value, or is a call more prudent?

    Should I be raising at any other point in this hand?
    If you haven't raised yet, a raise on the river is MANDATORY!!! He has not shown much aggression in the hand (his bets have all been small, especially the flop and river bets) and you have a nutty hand compared to the holdings of a tilting, semi-loose reg in the big blind. Raise to $75 or $80.
  • TJ Posts: 239Subscriber
    I don't mind the call call line from a possibly tilting donk bettor. I think I would have made a small raise on the turn to get more money in. As played I think it's a raise/call on the river. The sizing seems to make his river bet quote polarized, but he could think he's betting 65 for value.
  • Outlier Posts: 88Subscriber
    It seems that you have picked up a wealth of information by the river:
    --Flop bet: least meaningful. Could be block-betting bottom pair or donk-leading to induce a raise with a strong hand. I don't mind a call here with a one-pair hand with which you would feel uncomfortable if check-raised. The key thing is that you have a position and can find out a lot more on future streets.
    --Turn: much more meaningful because bet size is now much bigger (1/4 pot on flop, but almost 2/3 pot on turn). I think this puts a lot more 1-pair-plus hands in his range. Call and evaluate river.
    --River: what, now he goes back to 1/4 pot bet? Two pair that got scared? If he backed into a flush with something like K4ss or A4ss, would be bet sneaky small like this? My first instinct is that he has a two pair that got scared of the flush on the river (non-thinking player). So I like a raise/call on the river.
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