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TP with BD FD. call, raise, or fold?

3/5 $330 effective with MP semi aggressive young asian, $530 effective with BB, rec player
I'm on the button with Q T
Couple of limps, MP raises to $20, couple of calls, I call, and we see the flop 7 ways.

Flop $140 T 8 7
PFR bets $55, folds to me and I decide to just call. The bet size is odd but I don't think he's betting with air in this large field. BB also calls.

Turn $305. 4 PFR goes all in for $255.
If i just call, I would have around $200 left. The BB has me covered. If all my outs are good (14 outs), I'm getting a little better than 2:1 and need that to call.

The main question is it beneficial to just call and have the BB call as well? I really put him on a straight draw or pair + SD since he played the flop passively. Or he could have a hand like A 7 which would be a reason to raise him off. Or playing ATo passively where if I raised him off, it would open some of my outs to the ten.

the alternative is folding which is pretty close. Espicially there is good reason to suspect PFR has some sort of set.

Comments

  • maphacks Posts: 1,985Subscriber
    raise 100%. imagine a 9 river falls off and he leads. what do you do?
  • MouseMasher Posts: 78Subscriber
    If you ship the turn BB will get more than 2:1 on a call, so you can expect to see the upper part of his range on an all-in. If you call the turn, BB gets > 3:1 and prolly goes to the river with most of his turn range, so it appears calling is probably > EV than shipping, especially if shipping causes him to fold his T9:XX, JT:XX, 98:XX, etc. Keep in mind he can't have ThXh, so the TX hands that call a ship probably have you out-kicked

    I think calling gets you to realize your equity vs a wider range, and allows you the benefit of getting lucky by catching a heart that also improves his hand, and gives you an extra stack.


    If I were you I'd set a range that calls your ship, and a range that calls the turn, and figure out your equity vs each range and how much of that equity you expect to capture vs those ranges.

    You might also want to consider the merits of the hand you choose to call with PF. The pickle your in is a good example of what to expect with a hand that will likely have meh equity in a multiple way pot with small SPRs

    Btw, if you call the turn and BB ships, there is no way you can fold...
  • workinghard Posts: 1,544Subscriber
    as played, I just called to get BB to call behind. that gave me 3:1 on my money. unfortunately, the river paired the 4. I shipped the $200 and BB folded a 98o. MP had KK.
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