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Crush Live Poker Video No.219: Folding Tough Hands

BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
edited November 2015 in Crush Live Poker Videos
This week Bart examines some spots in games where a tough fold is necessary. He breaks down why the given player should fold, the action and how position and hand reading plays a role in his decision making process.

http://www.crushlivepoker.com/videos/folding-tough-hands


Episode posts at 2PM ET.
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Comments

  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    first hand: why is it such a clear bet in david's spot on the river? AT and AJ are not very likely to squeeze preflop and might even fold the river when the club comes in. I assume steve is not a professional so he is likely to slowplay a monster or checkback AA in my experience.
    if he is a good winning player I also like the check/fold (or maybe even check/call) , because his range just crushes david's. david can't have AA,KK,QQ,AK so a decent player might just decide to raise against another decent player. also against a good player, it's very very unlikely to get a call from Ax in my opinion....

    I think this is too thin against either playertype unless the guy is a really really bad stationy fish.

    could you comment on that bart?
  • TeamNOsleepTeamNOsleep Posts: 153Subscriber
    These guys have same play as poker on air.
  • BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
    maphacks said:
    first hand: why is it such a clear bet in david's spot on the river? AT and AJ are not very likely to squeeze preflop and might even fold the river when the club comes in. I assume steve is not a professional so he is likely to slowplay a monster or checkback AA in my experience.
    if he is a good winning player I also like the check/fold (or maybe even check/call) , because his range just crushes david's. david can't have AA,KK,QQ,AK so a decent player might just decide to raise against another decent player. also against a good player, it's very very unlikely to get a call from Ax in my opinion....

    I think this is too thin against either playertype unless the guy is a really really bad stationy fish.

    could you comment on that bart?
    Sure, even though this was technically a 3 bet pot I think the raise sizing was super small. Off the top of my head was it $125 to $400 or something? I think Steve definitely has some AJ or Ax type of hands that may call the river. Although you make a good point that he doesn't beat much when the club comes in. Non club is a mandatory bet. Against players that don't play NL cash that much, I still bet. I really don't expect him to check back AK or QQ all that much, so I would really only be worried about a check back AA.

    Bart
  • BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
    edited November 2015
    TeamNOsleep said:
    These guys have same play as poker on air.
    I've been trying to tell everyone that! Game is great for 1-2, 2-5+ training.

    :cool:
  • mconrad3 Posts: 4Subscriber
    Does Laake fold the set of 4s? He should be raising the flop 100% of the time, no?
  • BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
    mconrad3 said:
    Does Laake fold the set of 4s? He should be raising the flop 100% of the time, no?
    No, he did call.

    I don't mind the flat, especially deeper. When a good player leads into the raiser on a straightening board I am flatting a lot with just bottom set.

    Bart
  • TeamNOsleepTeamNOsleep Posts: 153Subscriber
    edited November 2015
    Bart said:
    TeamNOsleep said:
    These guys have same play as poker on air.
    I've been trying to tell everyone that! Game is great for 1-2, 2-5+ training.

    :cool:
    @bart
    Was watching the live stream from this weekend. Seen many pros tilt off 150-200bb with top pair. Tilly some how was in a pot with 104. She reraised 10 high flop and called off 8k more when preflop raiser had Jj. Preflop jammed flopped. Seen similar play in the horseshoe daily 50 dollar tourney this morn. Lol
    by 1Bart
  • BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
    TeamNOsleep said:
    Bart said:
    TeamNOsleep said:
    These guys have same play as poker on air.
    I've been trying to tell everyone that! Game is great for 1-2, 2-5+ training.

    :cool:
    @bart
    Was watching the live stream from this weekend. Seen many pros tilt off 150-200bb with top pair. Tilly some how was in a pot with 104. She reraised 10 high flop and called off 8k more when preflop raiser had Jj. Preflop jammed flopped. Seen similar play in the horseshoe daily 50 dollar tourney this morn. Lol
    I'm trying to get invited to every episode!!
  • TeamNOsleepTeamNOsleep Posts: 153Subscriber
    Bart said:
    TeamNOsleep said:
    Bart said:
    TeamNOsleep said:
    These guys have same play as poker on air.
    I've been trying to tell everyone that! Game is great for 1-2, 2-5+ training.

    :cool:
    @bart
    Was watching the live stream from this weekend. Seen many pros tilt off 150-200bb with top pair. Tilly some how was in a pot with 104. She reraised 10 high flop and called off 8k more when preflop raiser had Jj. Preflop jammed flopped. Seen similar play in the horseshoe daily 50 dollar tourney this morn. Lol
    I'm trying to get invited to every episode!!

    Was looking for you this weekend on there. I thought u were gonna play. Might have been mistaken for next one. Good luck
  • BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
    TeamNOsleep said:
    Bart said:
    TeamNOsleep said:
    Bart said:
    TeamNOsleep said:
    These guys have same play as poker on air.
    I've been trying to tell everyone that! Game is great for 1-2, 2-5+ training.

    :cool:
    @bart
    Was watching the live stream from this weekend. Seen many pros tilt off 150-200bb with top pair. Tilly some how was in a pot with 104. She reraised 10 high flop and called off 8k more when preflop raiser had Jj. Preflop jammed flopped. Seen similar play in the horseshoe daily 50 dollar tourney this morn. Lol
    I'm trying to get invited to every episode!!

    Was looking for you this weekend on there. I thought u were gonna play. Might have been mistaken for next one. Good luck
    Where did u hear I was going to play?
  • TeamNOsleepTeamNOsleep Posts: 153Subscriber
    edited November 2015
    Bart said:
    TeamNOsleep said:
    Bart said:
    TeamNOsleep said:
    Bart said:
    TeamNOsleep said:
    These guys have same play as poker on air.
    I've been trying to tell everyone that! Game is great for 1-2, 2-5+ training.

    :cool:
    @bart
    Was watching the live stream from this weekend. Seen many pros tilt off 150-200bb with top pair. Tilly some how was in a pot with 104. She reraised 10 high flop and called off 8k more when preflop raiser had Jj. Preflop jammed flopped. Seen similar play in the horseshoe daily 50 dollar tourney this morn. Lol
    I'm trying to get invited to every episode!!

    Was looking for you this weekend on there. I thought u were gonna play. Might have been mistaken for next one. Good luck
    Where did u hear I was going to play?

    I thought u said in one of the podcast that u were playing ?
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    In the 3rd hand I think this has to a mistake from Affleck. Given his stack size and how table is playing I'm going to assume he has no 8x in his 3bet range so AA is the absolute best hand he has here. And i feel like betting 1/4 pot to fold your entire range can't be good and has to be exploitable. Its a gross spot when he gets two callers and then a c/r but then he has to bet bigger on the flop.
  • BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
    stayinschool said:
    In the 3rd hand I think this has to a mistake from Affleck. Given his stack size and how table is playing I'm going to assume he has no 8x in his 3bet range so AA is the absolute best hand he has here. And i feel like betting 1/4 pot to fold your entire range can't be good and has to be exploitable. Its a gross spot when he gets two callers and then a c/r but then he has to bet bigger on the flop.
    Sure its exploitable, but 9/10 in that lineup live folding AA is correct. He just got unlucky.

  • TheSpirit Posts: 1Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    About the Deeb vs Bellande hand:

    Lets break down Bellande`s betting range there on the river from his perspective:

    Value: AK, AQ, A9(may be half), 99, AA, 66, A6s, 8T(half of this), 85hh, 67, 56, 68, 69s, 6Ts, K6s, 64s, 63s(I think this range should be fairly close, as Bellande is playing very wide ranges preflop, you can add Q6s, J6s possibly) or 76 value hands

    Bluff: Every missed flush draw with no showdown is a potential bluff. There are: K5, K8, KT, KJ, KQ, Q8, QT, QJ, JT - 9 combos. Lets say he does not bluff all of them, but that he is able to sometimes bluff a hand that is outside that box, as Bellande is a out of the box player. I would say the very minimum is 20 blyffs, which is still very small amount compared to the 76 value hands. A top player here would be bluffing at least 30-35 hands.

    And thats assuming that he is betting the entire range with the same size.

    Now it is important to make sure that we are not folding too much vs Deeb on the river, because he is a world class player who can exploit that.

    Deeb is risking 8000 to win 5000 on the river. If we do some math we would find out that if we fold more than 40%(a little bit less I think, but lets round it up) of our range, Deeb will make instant profit with any hand that he decides to shove.

    Our total range consist of around 100 hands(to make it easier)

    What we 100%: 66, 99, AA, T8(thats halved already), 85hh, 67, 96s, A6s or a total of 25 combos.

    Now we have to figure out like at least 15 combos more to be in our calling range. 6x-s are all first candidates here, because of the blocking. If we think what are the most likely hands that Deeb can turn into river bluffs it should some Ax-s and missed draws. I would say in Deeb`s spot any Ax that block something is a potential c/r bluff(like A8, AT), so it is better if we actually do not have 8 or T in our hand(it might be the case that 8h is ok to have). So we should fold 86 and T6s and call other 6-s.I think there is some merit that K6 win against some thin value shove from Deeb(rarely I would say, but still we have to define somehow). So is the case with Q6s/J6s(which are represented as 2 combos in our calculation). Thats 4 combos of high 6x-s and still 11 to go. As we do not want to put 86/T6 we should go ahead and add 56, 46s safely.

    All in all I would say a close hand, but I do not blame Bellande for calling.

    Anyway thanks for reading this, it turned out pretty long.

    PP. As I am thinking more about the hand it could be more simple: Deeb probably would not expect Bellande to fold a 6 ever, so he would not do the c/r bluff. Sometimes the absolute hand strength matters.
    by 1Bart
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