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PLO math

Pretty simple hand here I wanted to run by you guys. I basically want to know if I am getting the right price to call with a nut flush draw on the flop.

1-2-5 PLO. Mp1 raises to $15 hijack calls, I call in the cutoff with Ac10c10s7s and the small blind calls. pot $65. Flop is Qc4c3d and it checks to hijack who bets $40. i call and now the small blind ships $140 initial raiser folds and hijack is now all in for $200. so basically it is now $160 for me to win $445. I will be getting 2.75-1 on the call so how much equity would i need to make this call profitable?

Comments

  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    I think it's probably close, but when it's close in low-stakes PLO and you have the nut draw(s), then you go with it. Hitting a T might be good, plus clubs and backdoor broadway...gotta go with it.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    edited November 2015
    You need 160/(445+160) = 26.45% equity. (it's actually a little more complicated than this because of the side pot but probably shouldn't matter much in this case. ) It's an easy call. Even have one player has top set and the other a 765 wrap, you are almost priced in, and surely their ranges are wider here.
  • BooneyToons13 Posts: 26Subscriber
    high rolla thanks. i thought we don't count our $160 when making these calculations?
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    DanielGilardi said:
    high rolla thanks. i thought we don't count our $160 when making these calculations?
    It's easier to see if you think about a situation where you need to call $25 into a pot of $75. In that case, you can lose three times (3 x $25) for every one time ($75) you win to break even. So, 1 win out of 4 attempts equates to 1/4 or 25% equity. Or, 25/(75+25) = 25%.
  • FreeLunch Posts: 1,309Pro
    edited November 2015
    DanielGilardi - your confusion comes from the difference betweens odds and probability. and specifically, odds we are offered and equity needed to call. Instead of calling 160 into 445 - make it 100 to make 100. Obv odds are 1/1 but you need 50% equity. Similarly, call 100 into 200 - you are getting 2/1 but need 33% to call. Equity needed therefore = 100/(100+200) even though odds are 200/100

    I personally don't like the HR's method as it does lead to exactly the confusion you have.

    I prefer to calculate odds (200/100) - call it 2-1 knowing that 2-1 means to future equity use 3/1 (just add 1 before dividing). HRs method is probably the easier shortcut though if you are not used to converting odds to probability.
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