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Blasting villain off of over pairs?

JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
edited December 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain seems like a pretty average recreational $5/10 player. Hasn't gone out of line, playing pretty straight forward. Not good but not necessarily that bad, he should be able to evaluate his hand strength alright. My image is kind of natural TAG.

Folds to me in HJ w/ A K , I make it 35, btn calls and it goes HU to flop

Flop: 5 7 2
I bet 55, he raises 135, I raise 300, he thinks about it and calls

Turn: Jx
I bet 525 (about 6-700 behind effective stacks)

- A spot were it normally goes auto pilot c-bet/fold and next hand... Due to sizing on his flop raise I think he has A7/88-JJ here a lot though and I just don't see him going broke with that. Not in a single raised HU pot with spr 20 otf. I essentially let him make a decision for his stack on the turn here and I really don't think he calls one planing on folding river here almost ever.

Thoughts?
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Comments

  • pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    Seems to me like when he raises you and calls your flop 3bet, he's of the mindset that he's going with his hand... If you think he has reason to want to take a stand against you, then you probably want something better than ace high... I think maybe it's reasonable if you 3bet more on the flop and only continue when you gain enough equity to call it off.
  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    Could certainly go bigger on the flop with the intention to give up on the turn unless its a which I could possibly jam (also hopefully win on A/K) turns. I do think he peals one IP quite often with an over pair though. On the turn, especially on over cards I think he might just let go of 88-TT when I leverage the stack depths like this. I think it's on the turn I make him feel like he has to make a decision for stacks.

    I do like clicking it back for value on the flop too when oop btw. And kind of take the hand from there when getting called.

    If I can make him fold on the flop with a bigger raise thats nice but personally I think he will call ip and see what happens on the turn a lot. Flop 3-b is not necessarily immediate profit but with two overs to his range of pairs, back door hearts and barrel potential I sort of liked it.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,545Subscriber
    I like it better if you hit a heart on the turn as a back up. If he shoves, are you calling to hit an A or K?
  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    No, I fold to a shove here for sure. A heart is absolutely the ideal card for me to barrel but think I need to go with any heart and any T+ if I don't think flop is going to go through that often.

    Since I don't expect to fold out the range I'm targeting too often when I rase the flop, but probably on the turn I kind of have to go with two barrels (except maybe on an 8/9 and below non heart) or just fold flop here.

    That was pretty much my thought process
  • Oback2 Posts: 190SubscriberProfessional
    edited December 2015
    I really don't play these levels but this hand makes me question: what's your 3 bet value range on this type of flop?
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,977SubscriberProfessional
    I usually would need to see something from villain that makes me think he can fold an overpair in this spot. I'm not sure you've seen enough from him to try and barrel him off, but this seems like as good a flop spot as any. I guess the only question: How are you perceived? Would you bet/3-bet this flop with AA?
  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    Not that I need to balence this here. But sets. Possibly AA and 75s
  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    I think most players in a 5/10 player pool folds turn here with something like 99? Put yourself in villains shoes, do you really wanna stack off 150bb here? And we prob don't fold flop IP at a very high frequency?
  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    I feel fold flop or if I decided to take this line occasionally against a villain that can hopefully fold a vulnerable over pair here I continue turn.

    If He is a stubborn reg or a bad fish I will just take this line with sets, AA/KK and 75s and almost no bluffs. Or at least less and higher equity bluffs.
  • Jonw23 Posts: 175SubscriberProfessional
    Oback2 said:
    I really don't play these levels but this hand makes me question: what's your 3 bet value range on this type of flop?
    @Oback2 this is an excellent question. Although, possibly most players aren't thinking in this manner. There are some that may subconsciously ask themselves "well what the hell is he repping on this flop?"

    Jim, not sure if you have any reads on this villain, but in a vacuum I do not think this is a good line. You are repping an extremely narrow range on this flop and will be hard pressed to get a guy to fold an overpair here in most cases. I either fold or call to see if you did pick up additional equity ott if you opponent is pretty bad. If you opponent is half way decent then it's a clear fold. Additionally this higher variance play may work better if your stacks are deeper 150bb stacks, I feel are not deep enough.

  • dontfeedthenits Posts: 396Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    Against an average rec 5-10 player this is not a good play, only because most players make calling errors (not folding errors). It's quite likely he'll be unable to release his over pair (even though a fold looks 'correct' from our perspective).

    The reason we fast play big pocket pairs and sets here is specifically because villains can't fold hands like this.

    It sucks to put a V in a spot where if he makes the mistake he's inclined to make (call when he shouldn't), it's the right play.

    That said, if you've been playing with this guy for a while and you think he makes folding errors, I'm okay with this play, but I'd want to be confident about his tendencies (and would not describe him as an average 5-10 rec player).
  • pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    Another thing to point out... The jack doesn't really change anything. If anything, I'd feel your line is stronger if a 2 hit the turn and you made this turn bet. When a jack hits the turn and you're suddenly betting right around 3/4 pot after that smallish flop 3bet - it all looks really fishy to me. I mean, if I'm villain, I feel like you really want me to fold now that a possible scare card hit. I could see myself just going with a hand like 99 here. Not often/always, but occasionally I'll just make my mind up knowing that if I were to fold 99 in this spot always I'd be way too exploitable, so I might just say screw it and ship it in and hope for the best.
  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    Thanks for all the inputs. Most people seem to disagree with me here so I guess I should reconsider. I just feel thatyou can kind of reach these standard/passive "trying to be a winning player middle aged guy but is still a looser afer 15 years" guys threshold when threatening there whole $1500 stack when they have one pair. I feel that they don't really wanna go broke in a pot of $80 otf for there 1500 stack. And over card to their pair is just a scare card for most rec players since they don't hand read like that. I basically rep AA+ here, but yeah a deuce would reduce my set combos, not sure if that is villains thought process that often though.

    I do agree the majority of players make calling errors as opposed to folding errors in general, absolutely!

    It's an interesting situation that I saw as an opportunity, but might be a misstake. As a default I'm definitely not trying to get rec players off of tp+, especially not on later streets. But here It felt like I gave him the chance to sort of "get rid of it before it was to late". Meaning that he can fold here and only have comitted about 300 bucks insted of shipping his $1500 in with one pair.

    I'll spoil the hand later tonight. I'm guessing you guys assume I got looked up by TT since I posted here but that wasn't it....
  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    Correction of my post. A 2 actually reduce my set combos so it should not be a more scary card..
  • pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
    JimHamring said:
    Correction of my post. A 2 actually reduce my set combos so it should not be a more scary card..
    I agree. But I don't think you're ever really repping deuces anyway as PFR (not that you wouldn't open that hand, but I don't think it's usually going to be in your perceived range). The story with your flop 3bet is more, "I have kings or aces, maybe even a set of sevens." I find that story to be a bit more compelling when a total brick hits and you continue, "I think you have an overpair, something like nines or tens, and man I hope you shovel it in here." The jack peeling is more like a reverse scare card IMO. It hits villain's pocket pair range a bit harder than hero's range of pocket pairs+bluffs, and should make your value bets with KK-AA just a little bit more thin. So when I suddenly see what looks like a stack commitment bet on the turn, I start feeling like you're repping very thin - basically 77 only. It's not that you can't still have kings or aces, it's just that your betting doesn't produce that feel. Hope that makes sense. I've been mostly playing 2/5 recently though, it's been a while since I've played higher so I could be off here.

    Also, I give too much credit to other players. Like I said, to me the jack is a bit of a reverse scare card if I have 99 or TT. I'm sure most players are the opposite.
  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    I guess that mekes sense. But yeah I think maybe most players are the opposite like you mention, but who knows. Pretty nice stacks to make this play in my opinion and I will still be very value heavy in this spot I think. Pretty sure I click it back here with all sets, KK+ and 75s almost 100% when I think his range is this A7/88-JJ heavy. If I was to make all my Ax with back doors in to bluffs it's going to be a lot of bluffs but not sure how often I actually pull this move. Maybe 10% of the times when I have a hand like that if I think villain is a reasonable opponent to do so against.

    Anyway I should probably do this with almost 100% value and hope they don't fold a hand like that. I fealt it kind of is similar to the concept were a field player bets in a multiway pot on like a 852r and it's sometimes good raise to try and barrel them off tp...

    Outcome: The hand ended up with him calling turn, I x/f to a shove on the river. Once he shove river I think he had JJ or he just took this line with a flopped set.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Think you may rep strength better by flatting and raising turn. Maybe you only raise turn when you hit a heart to spot from over bluffing and if he checks turn you can bluff. Flop is so dry what do you really 3bet? aren't you going to just flat most sets? and stuff like AA. AP I just x/b turn and hope to hit my A or K and pray its good. most people don't call flop 3bets to fold to a turn bet.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    stayinschool said:
    Think you may rep strength better by flatting and raising turn. Maybe you only raise turn when you hit a heart to spot from over bluffing and if he checks turn you can bluff. Flop is so dry what do you really 3bet? aren't you going to just flat most sets? and stuff like AA. AP I just x/b turn and hope to hit my A or K and pray its good. most people don't call flop 3bets to fold to a turn bet.
    Didn't realize you are OOP. Advice remains the same tho.

  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    Jonw23 said:
    Oback2 said:
    I really don't play these levels but this hand makes me question: what's your 3 bet value range on this type of flop?
    @Oback2 this is an excellent question. Although, possibly most players aren't thinking in this manner. There are some that may subconsciously ask themselves "well what the hell is he repping on this flop?"

    It is a good question! Like I said 75s KK+ and all sets I take this line close to 100% against any rec player. Sure I might occasionally unbalance my sizing and bet like 415 on the turn.... That would be 23 value combos, potentially another 6 QQ combos.

    I don't really like to talk balance here when I play against this opponent and the flop action is kind of weird. But my value range isn't that narrow. It's kind of optimistic for him to think I go out of line that often with a pure bluff. And in reality I might do this 10-20% of the times were I have a backdoor flush plus 2 overs to his pairs. AQ/AK with bd flush being 6 combos and they only take this line at a reduced frequency.

    Balance kind of goes out the window though and I should probably do this with 100% value unless I have really strong reads.

  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    Stayinschool - Why would I not 3b my strong hands that dominate his range? Especially when everyone thinks he rarely folds. Even if he does fold an over pair on the turn here I pretty much still make the same when 3b flop as opposed to flat, then probably goes x/x turn and I get 1 bet in on the river. Then fact that he doesn't always fold make it higher EV.

    And if he does always, or very often fold, then it suddenly makes it very profitable to over bluff here as opposed to be value heavy.
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