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KJ99 river bluff decision

TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 295Subscriber
This was the last hand of the night from the Poker On Air NLHE/PLO cash game on December 1st. You can watch it here as long as the link works: http://www.twitch.tv/pokeronair/v/27989208

Last hand of the night, hero with $3,400, villian is Chicago Joey Ingram with about $2700. Joey has been stuck most of the night, got back over even, and then took a bad beat two hands prior and is playing wide open with the game shutting down after this hand.

Hero UTG opens KdJs9d9h to $15. Two calls, Joey 3bets to $45 out of the BB. Hero calls, MP1 calls, Button calls. $185 in pot. Flop comes down 5d6h7c rainbow. Joey checks in BB. Hero bets $110 with 99 blocker and backdoor equity. MP1 and button fold, Joey calls. $405 in pot.

Turn is Tc, giving hero gutshot, putting backdoor clubs on board. Joey checks again. I bet $220. Joey calls. Pot $845.

River is 7d. Joey checks again. Clearly 99 doesn't have much showdown value in this spot. Do you decide to fire the third shell, and if so, what's the sizing?
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Comments

  • BartBart Posts: 5,921AdministratorLeadPro
    That show will be up on POA's youtube channel as well in a few days. Its easy to download the entire night via youtube and scrub through as opposed to Twitch.

    Bart
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Yes, joey's range is pretty weak in this spot, but with the game closing down , him being a bit wide open, and a river bet by hero being a bit polarizing*, I don't like a river bluff.

    * hero is clearly repping a straight based on flop and turn action including betting into a multi-way field. does the table dynamic / hero's image allow for hero to credibly value bet a straight on a board pairing river? (.....to get called by trips or an overpair)
  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 295Subscriber
    In terms of my image, the hands that I have shown down have all be nutty/very strong. Hero's image should be tight in this spot, though Joey knows me a little bit and figures I am capable of putting together a credible bluff line.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    Why didn't you bet larger on the turn? I think if you want to tell a credible story of having the nuts, the turn bet should be larger than just more than half pot.

    It doesn't sound like a player with this current mindset and it being the last hand is a good spot to bluff on the river. ,But if you do, I would make a small bet to give myself a good price and represent 89xx going for thin value. Maybe $350-400. You would really be targeting a hand like 84xx or T87x, or T8xx:cc to fold out.
  • boredoo Posts: 223Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    I don't like the line mainly because you did not bet like you had the nuts or a nutty hand on any street, including when the nuts change, which makes a it a good spot for Joey to bluff catch. Not a PLO expert but I don't find the line nutty at all. Are you really betting half pot-ish with the nuts on every street when the board is wet, gets more wet, and then the nuts change?
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    I think it's a good spot to bluff, because if he was check/calling with a medium strength hand like AAxx that picks up clubs, he's folding to a river barrel.
  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 295Subscriber
    I agree upon review that the turn sizing was too small. No nuts changing there, but the club draw coming into play does make me think 98 needs to charge more. To tell a convincing story, I think the turn does need to be bigger.

    On the river, yes, the nuts change, but our opponent checks. He should never be checking any full houses there, since the hand we are repping has always been the nut straight. So with 98 we should be targeting hands that picked up trip 7's, or overpairs that now have two pair and are thinking about bluff catching. Is blasting the river the right play, or sizing it so it looks very much like a value bet (and in turn getting away with betting less if called)?

    I chose $375 b/c I thought it looked like I was begging for a call, which I ended up getting b/c he did indeed run into a 7. However, if you watch the video, Joey holds his hand up, ready to pitch the cards in when he sees 98. After I turn over blockers, he then tables his holdings. Clearly thought he was calling off a value bet at the end of the night. Would betting more have worked? I'm not sure given his mindset. But I think given the spot in future hands, yes, it's a good spot to bluff, the question is whether we need to blast away or not.
  • Dusty Posts: 233Subscriber
    maybe a slightly larger value bet would have worked. Blasting pot obviously looks fishy with how the hand went down, but a bet around $525 might have got through and still looks like value sizing. maybe vs a non-tilting, non end of the session hand your size would have worked, but at this point i think the described V calls anything under 500 most of the time.
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