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Tough Run Out Awkward Stacks

BartBart Posts: 5,819AdministratorLeadPro
edited December 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Wednesday 3:30PM 5-10 at commerce. Hero moved to current table about an hour ago. Her hasn't played many hands. V1 is a mid 50s Indian guy. Never seen him before, he's played pretty tight. He has $2000.

$1650 effective.

One OMC limp UTG folded to Hero in SB w T T who raises to $45. v1 in BB calls, limper calls.

FLOP: Q T 7

Hero bets 85. BB thinks and raises to $285. Limper folds, Hero makes it $525. BB thinks for a while and calls.

TURN: J

Hero ponders bet sizing and makes it $600. v1 thinks for a long time and calls.

RIVER : A

Hero?
«1

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    all in? would this player raise flop with just a pair and king. if not then he doesnt have any kings in his range. that is unless he slowplayed them pre

    I dont see many omc raise draws. but I do see them sand bag that said I think you have to ship. he can have kings and aces. but also AQ

    so if you dont think he will call you on river then check fold. as there is no way I see him bluffing.


    I mean you have $500 left right? I cant see folding for that price. better to ship
  • BartBart Posts: 5,819AdministratorLeadPro
    edited December 2015
    V1 isn't the OMC. I think the turn sizing is quite complex as everyone is always scared of AK from villains perspective. Id hate to see him fold a hand like Q7 or 7T to a ship all in.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    oh I thought villain was omc.

    well if you dont think he is raising a draw then AK really shouldnt be in his range either

    but the pot is already 2000. how can you bet anything less???
  • BartBart Posts: 5,819AdministratorLeadPro
    Thehammah said:
    oh I thought villain was omc.

    well if you dont think he is raising a draw then AK really shouldnt be in his range either

    but the pot is already 2000. how can you bet anything less???
    Your going to need to work on your reading comp Hammah. Read my 2nd post again.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    Bart said:
    Thehammah said:
    oh I thought villain was omc.

    well if you dont think he is raising a draw then AK really shouldnt be in his range either

    but the pot is already 2000. how can you bet anything less???
    Your going to need to work on your reading comp Hammah. Read my 2nd post again.
    if he is worried you have AK he already called a $600 turn bet. sorry I must be tired cuz I still dont understand. :frown:
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,298Subscriber
    Your hand is fairly face up.

    QT or 77 would be the most likely (12)
    I would weigh less a bluffy draw type of hand since villain is unknown and you showed strength post flop on a 2 paint card.
    Small chance he has KQ.

    The issue is what do you bet and will he call? Would he even call $100 here?

    You could bet really small and call a spazz shove. I know indians at my casino do all sorts of crazy moves if they smell weakness. But that's my casino.

    Shoving I think will NOT get two pair hands to call except some bizzare AQ hand maybe.

    Check-Calling is an option if this type of player is liable to bluff here. He doesnt have to bluff shove often to make it profitable.

    So I would say bet very small or check call and plan ahead if you are going to call a shove if you bet small.
  • flyingtriangleflyingtriangle Posts: 101Subscriber
    Bart said:
    I think the turn sizing is quite complex as everyone is always scared of AK from villains perspective. Id hate to see him fold a hand like Q7 or 7T to a ship all in.
    You said the guy was playing tight though, right? Does he have those hands in his range when he calls $35 more from the BB?

    Speaking of sizing on previous streets, I'm actually interested in the 3bet sizing on the flop too. I have a hard time knowing how much to raise in these spots, and I think I usually make it too big and wind up blowing people off a lot of the hands I want to get value from. Even so, $525 seems pretty small. Why not make it like $650 and make it easier to get stacks in on the turn?

    As played turn sizing seems perfect to keep Villain in with his entire range. And I like Fuzzypup's suggestion of either betting super small or just check/calling river.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,819AdministratorLeadPro
    Thehammah said:
    Bart said:
    Thehammah said:
    oh I thought villain was omc.

    well if you dont think he is raising a draw then AK really shouldnt be in his range either

    but the pot is already 2000. how can you bet anything less???
    Your going to need to work on your reading comp Hammah. Read my 2nd post again.
    if he is worried you have AK he already called a $600 turn bet. sorry I must be tired cuz I still dont understand. :frown:
    The complex part is the turn sizing not River play.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    This "he could be afraid of AK" thing has me confused. How often are you bet/3-betting AK on this board? You should have very few AK in your range with that flop play.

    Because he's so tight, and you have middle set, there should be very few 2P hands in his range. I would also discount a set, as he just called the three bet on a board with obvious straight draws. What does that leave? KJ, J9, and 89 for aggressively played straight draws, plus AQ/KQ. So while the jack on the turn makes 89, it gives more equity to the rest of his hands. I assume Bart bets the turn to that size for value, and is able to fold to a ship, which must be 89.

    On the river, I'm not sure we can get value from anything except AQ, and with these awkward stacks, I don't think we can bet/fold. He's unlikely to turn whatever made hands he had into a bluff, except maybe J9, so I think I'm check/folding here.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    I like turn sizing. We can easily get it in on the river and think much more may scare away some hands we have crushed. River is really weird. I think our options are b/f or c/f. I don't like c/c as he really has no hands he needs to bluff with besides some weird weak pair plus SD but some people will just x/b with that anyway. Also he may flat hands like that a lot on the flop. I think I like betting like 1/4-1/3 pot? He has a fair amount of straights but also a lot of hands that may call that we beat. In terms of range we really have no Kx in our range after flop 3bet so this is pretty exploitable but I don't think we have to worry too much about a bluff raise. I think c/f and betting tiny to fold are pretty close.
  • maphacks Posts: 1,992Subscriber
    pretty clear allin or do I miss something? flop sizing is debadeable, turn sizing is fine I would say. he will call 2pair and 77. against a total nit I might bet 400-500. river seems we have no other option than shoving? 89 will very very rarely play that way and same for KQ. you have to have a really really sick live tell to check fold here...
  • DMan0047 Posts: 5Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    Villain's hand looks like AQ/KQ/QJ, maybe a rare QT or KJ. I discount QT because older, tight players will usually fold pre and some percentage of the time he does have QT, he will try to get it in on the flop. He doesn't have a set because Villain would probably try to get the money in after your 3-bet. I don't see older, tight players raise with straight draws very often, so I would discount those, although KJ may be possible. The fact that he thinks for a while after your flop 3-bet and turn bet really makes it look like AQ/KQ/QJ to me. I think KQ/QJ is very much in this player's range. Some guys just won't fold top pair on the flop, and those hands improve on the turn leading villain to call again.

    I'm ruling out 89 because I would think he would get the money in on the turn. Do you really think Villain is so scared of AK that he would just call the turn bet after he made his hand? In my experience at low stakes, older, tight players (not OMCs) might mutter something about AK getting there, but without fail, they will put all the money in if they hit their straight with 89.

    There are very few Indian players in my player pool, and all of them are mid 30s or younger, so I'm not sure what, if any, poker stereotype would apply here.

    I think you could bet a little more on the turn, say $650-$700, and still get calls from all the hands you beat that call $600. I wouldn't go much more than half pot though because then you leave very little money behind making your play look really strong.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,390Subscriber
    Effective stacks is $1650 - 45-525-600= $480.

    The pot is 2385 at the river. There is no room to bet/fold. It is all in or check fold.
  • eastvanshooter Posts: 19Subscriber
    Im also a bit confused about saying the villain might be scared of AK on the turn
    I know most rec players do put players on AK way to much but when u 3bet the flop on a q-10-7 no suit board do you still think villains will put on you on AK?
  • Nicholas31 Posts: 50Subscriber
    I think my line here would be to bet $525 on the turn. Then check/eval and leaning towards call if he shoves river. Indians in my casino are certainly capable of shoving worse in this spot.
  • KSMKSM Posts: 222Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    Flop is fine, turn is read dependent for me. It depends on what I would think V's propensity to fold two pair here is.
    Pot is 1185 on the turn, with 1080 behind. There are a ton of river cards that can kill your action, so if you think he's willing to go with a hand like QT, or 77, then just shove turn.
    But then again, if you're going to do that you should probably make the flop slightly larger to make a more comfortable shove on the turn. Maybe like 645 setting the pot up to be 1425 with 960 behind.
    If you think he's capable of folding (Which he probably was), then as played is fine.. and obviously shove river.

    Also lolz @
    Nicholas31 said:
    Indians in my casino are certainly capable of shoving worse in this spot.
    Fuzzypup said:
    You could bet really small and call a spazz shove. I know indians at my casino do all sorts of crazy moves if they smell weakness. But that's my casino.
  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    We have $1080 effective left on the turn in a pot of almost $1200 were he has already called a 3b otf if I'm not mistaken? Just bet $500 on turn to almost never make him fold T7 and the hands you mention, then jam the other $580 on the river?

    Sure a rec player who is terrible at hand reading might be worried about AK but when he has put in that much and already called the 3b does he really fold something like Q7 or T7? He also got the 77 combos.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 765Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    Flop - I would 3bet higher, to at least $700. I don't think his range for calling a 3bet to $700 is appreciably different than $525, but it gets more value and gives you the option to shove the turn for about $900 into $1435.

    Turn - I think his range to get to the turn is AQ, two pair QT and T7s, possibly 77, and SDs (KJ and J9). I heavily discount KQ and QJ based on the flop action. You want value from this range, so I think your sizing is fine. It allows him to continue with his pair+SDs and the made hands in his range. After he calls, I dismiss 77 and 89 (and discount QT), since he could shove for just a little more.

    River - His range is now mostly AQ, T7s, KJ, and J9. Sometimes he can have KQ or QT. T7s is now scared to death of that board. KJ and any KQ have made the nuts. J9 is done. So, the only hands you might get value from are AQ and any QT left, but that's really thin. I prefer to check/evaluate here expecting it to usually go to showdown. I think the risk of getting bluffed is low since he usually shows down his two pair hands.


  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    Regardless of the complexity of the turn we are now at the river..

    If we check will villain bet two pair or a set of 7s? NO

    If we check will villain bet a bluff? maybe

    If we check will villain bet a K? Yes..

    If we check will villain bet AA? I dont think so.

    If we check and villain goes all in can we fold? NO

    So all in all I think effective stacks are just too small to fold here.. regardless if our read is villain is unlikely to bluff or bet a worse hand. There is always that small spaz percentage that will make us call getting the pot odds.. So thats why I thought regardless we should just go all in for our last $500..

  • Amicus Posts: 190Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    I probably would have just bet all-in on the turn and hope he calls with a hand like two pair or pair+straight draw

    Why have people been discounting K's from his range? He could have thought he was raising the flop for value with KQ and gotten stubborn. Or less likely KJ that semi-bluffed the flop and obviously can't really fold after that.

    I would not bet the river for value.
    His two pairs would more likely be a cautiously played QT or AQ. Or QJ that raised the flop and got stubborn to not fold to a flop 3bet. I don't consider not betting the river losing too much value against those hands, because those should likely fold (maybe with the exception of AQ) thinking he was either beat the whole way or you were semi-bluffing and got there. He should NOT have Q7 or T7 if he's reasonably tight. The guy limped UTG, come on.

    So it's a check/likely fold but may call based on live instinct
    If he got to the river, he either has a hand that had showdown value, or he was drawing to something and got there. Would he even think to turn something into a bluff on the river? Probably not, when the instinct for recreational players is to check when they have something and bluff when they have absolutely nothing. There aren't that many hands that could have gotten to the river that he would think to turn into a bluff instead of checking back. You pray he has J9 and played it exactly this way AND thought he could turn it into a bluff? Not impossible, but a little steep.
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