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2/5 - Over 500BBs deep, flopped top two

pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
edited December 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Thoughts on all streets appreciated. Also, I'm curious about other river cards and what my plan should be. Game is 2/5, 1k max BI. In this game, it is rare to see 200BB stacks go in except in big cooler situations.

Villain in hand is mid 30s tan skinned woman, who seems slightly aggro though I have not been at the table for all that long (previous game broke). My impression is that she plays higher. I saw her raise pre a few times and take down pots post. Only preflop raised hand I saw her showdown was AJo, raised to $25 from middle position (played hand very straightforward).

She has ~$2800

SB (~$600) - typical 2/5 rec fish
BB (~$1100) - younger guy
Hero (covers table) - might seem a bit laggy.

Hero dealt 97o (both black)
Villain opens MP2 for $25. CO calls. Hero calls on button. SB calls. BB calls.

Flop ($125): 9h 7d 3d
SB leads for $75. BB calls. V raises to $275. CO folds. Hero thinks for a bit and calls, others fold.

Turn ($825): Qh

Villain thinks for maybe 15 seconds. She bets $450. Hero tanks for a bit and flats again.

River ($1725): 7c

Villain checks fairly quickly. Hero thinks for about 10 seconds and bets $900.

Comments

  • GuccGucc Posts: 17Subscriber
    Fold pre. Cold calling some ~30th percentile hand is spew.

    Flop is super-tricky. I think we're good here vs everyone a super high percent of the time besides a rare 33 from SB or V. We do however need a lot of protection vs 2pair draws, FD, SD. Unfortunately cold-3betting this flop looks like exactly 97+ and probably blows V off her overpairs which she is going to be really slanted towards with this action, although that's not the worst thing. I'd probably still just go for it.
  • pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
    GuccGucc said:
    Fold pre. Cold calling some ~30th percentile hand is spew.
    I mostly agree. I was up a couple buyins, and was feeling a little gambly with a big stack in position. I think with stack sizes it's not crazy horrendous, but yeah I should probably be folding this especially when I don't have all that much history at the table.
  • nariman44nariman44 Posts: 96Subscriber
    calling pre flop is only justified if:
    1- villain open raise pre flop is very tight (not T9 or JT suited)
    2- you both are deep.

    I like you pre flop call if she is tight pre flop and you know that for sure. you can crack AA and KK and she never folds that.
    In this case (if she has a narrow range preflop) you called $25 to win 112 times $25 ($2800) so it justifies the call.

    I would re-raise or even ship the flop since your top two has 25% chance of getting counterfeited by the river against an over pair. your hand is vulnerable despite of set.

    The way she raised two players (SB and BB) on that flop means she should have over pair. so any river that does not counterfeit your top two is good to bet. any Q, K, A if she bets I would call (you may see set of Q or K or A sometimes). in general if she checks the river I would thin value bet
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    edited December 2015
    Pretty ambitious call since she doesn't seem like the folding type, so if she opening a tight range and never folds then yeah gambool
    AP
    Flatting flop might be best, since 3! Will like 2P+ ( because we have no reads on how attached she'll be with OP's)
    River: I'm going for gold once she checks
  • pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
    I'm curious how people would rank hands in my spot... Like Q8s, Q7s, K5s? I tend to like 97o more than any of these when I'm deep IP because it has more nut potential, and flushes tend to be easier to bluff than straights (i.e., more likely to get paid big if I hit a straight than if I hit a flush). Plus the random suited hands can be problematic when you get caught up in some thin implied odds situation. Thoughts?
  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    Pre: fold
    Flop: like it, although we could click it to 575 and go bet/bet if we can get it in vs QQ+. It gets sick if she jams though and we kind of over rep our hand given this action. If she is capable of jamming a combo draw (highly unlikely) etc we open ourselves up to that.
    Turn: like it OK too. Again we can raise it and try and get it in vs over pairs. There are a bunch of cards that might kill the action against those hands which is a good argument for a raise. We do own ourselves occasionally against a set though.
    River: I like the sizing, think she can make some calls when draws bust etc. If you get x/r it's insanely gross

    In general those hands suck but are playable if you think your opponents are gonna play very face up post flop and be very easy to play perfect against ip. A hand like Q8s/K7s etc. could be used as 3b bluffs ip here. I tend to 3b quite linear in these types of games for value but if you have been card dead for 2h and they can fold some hands pre I would throw in a 3b bluff like that occasionally with a hand like K7s that has some playability post flop and a K blocker. It's also a good candidate because it's so borderline if it's a profitable call or not. Unless $25 is bigger open then "standard" I don't do that almost ever.
  • pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
    I'm mostly wondering about her range on the turn? When she bet $450 after the $275, I felt like it was a little small for a flopped or turned set as I look like I could have a big draw (TP + FD or FD+SD or nut FD) that she would want to make me pay for... Is her sizing consistent with a big draw, or something like AQdd/KQdd? Or are we still putting her on a lot of overpairs? If I raise her turn bet, do you think she's mucking her KK/AA hands?
  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    I'm not OP but I think she is over pair heavy given sizing, hence my arguments in my post. If she folds AA to a 1075 raise it sucks but I wouldn't expect it. If she jams she probably has QQ or 33 though. So if raising turn we need to be prepared to raise/fold in my opinion.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Kinda think we have to flat flop. Maybe we can click it up but cold 3bet look really strong. Pretty good reasons to raise turn imo. Ap I'm betting on the smaller side OTR to try and get called by TT and JJ and maybe some random Qx. Don't think V Checks AA or KK here often.
  • pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
    Thanks all... FWIW, she definitely was not happy about my river bet, but she didn't take all that long and called, and I was good. Just wondering if I missed some value.
  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    Think you may miss some value on the turn but there is a chance she folds AA/KK to a raise plus a river bet so I think you're fine. A smaller bet on the river would have been a mistake. We can't be targeting hands like Qx and JJ here, they are very rare compared to AA/KK if she has them at all.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,097Subscriber
    The way the hand played out - I think it worked out very well for you either way. :cool:

    Pre - I flat on BU with 97o all day long with those stacks (unless Blinds are very squeeze happy)
    I would dump Q8s, Q7s and K7s - those are trash (especially muti-way)

    Flop is very interesting spot.
    She obv has a OP here A LOT.
    There's a ton of action killing cards. SB most likely has some weak 1p hand, but he could also have a draw (FD or SD) if that's the case, by flatting we're giving him pretty good odds (pot $750 - $200 to call)
    The biggest factor is - is she capable of folding QQ+ to a small cold 3bet here.
    This also depends on how she perceives HERO.

    As played, I think it's pretty fortunate that she continues to lead turn.
    I think now she must have QQ+ for sure.
    The problem is that raising turn would now looks UBER strong (like a flopped set)
    So if you thought she might fold and OP on the flop, I think you're forced to just flat turn (plus there's a small chance she ran into set of Qs also)

    River bet size is PERFECT I think! :tu:
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