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WTF?? How can this be happening in same session? (Podcast 12-8-15)

BartBart Posts: 5,723AdministratorLeadPro
edited December 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
UTG villain is very tight, crunchy, late 20's pro. Doesn't make a lot of moves but his age would suggest he knows who I am. He may even be an under the table subscriber.

$1600 effective. UTG raises to $35. Hero calls UTG1 with 9 T. Mp2 calls, BB calls.

FLOP K T 5

Checked around.

TURN: T

Check, Check, Hero bets $100. Fold, fold, UTG calls.

RIVER: 4

UTG checks. Hero decided because backdoors bricked out to over bet $540. UTG tanks for a few minutes and finally moves all in for $1425 total.
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Comments

  • RecreationalRogerRecreationalRoger Posts: 752Subscriber
    Crunchy?
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    I think its likely villain has a ten as well.. or a pair of 4s and was heroing you on the turn. I mean QT or AT TJ are all hands that I would play this way against you.

    Against a better player I am playing alot more as calling against better players because they thin value bet so much more. he could be playing this line against you.

    So I think your overbet is a mistake against this guy if you think he is a better player because his range isnt the same that a normal player would play. In fact he could be playing quite strangely expecting you to do what you do ie thin value bet.

    So as we arrive at this play on the river I think you need to ask yourself a few questions:

    1) would this villain ever slowplay a big hand on this wet board thinking that you might bet in essence too thinly?
    2) Does he know you well enough to expect you to bet thinly?
    3) Can he ever be leveling you into thinking your hand is no good and ships to get you to fold what he thinks is a better but weakish hand ..maybe even ace high flush that YOU missed?

    If you think that he is possibly leveling himself or you because of the river bet size then I think its a sigh call because he could be doing this with say QQ.. I know its very odd.. but if he thinks he can get your off a better hand like a weak king it looks awfully strong??? or maybe he thinks you missed your draw on the turn and he is re-bluffing you???

    I dont think there is any way for us to tell you this was good or bad because this is a completely live read thing.. and only you would know ..

    ww
  • BartBart Posts: 5,723AdministratorLeadPro
    edited December 2015
    RecreationalRoger said:
    Crunchy?
    Yeah like from Oregon or some shit.. He likes to wear REI cargo pants
  • BartBart Posts: 5,723AdministratorLeadPro
    edited December 2015
    Thehammah said:
    I think its likely villain has a ten as well.. or a pair of 4s and was heroing you on the turn. I mean QT or AT TJ are all hands that I would play this way against you.

    Against a better player I am playing alot more as calling against better players because they thin value bet so much more. he could be playing this line against you.

    So I think your overbet is a mistake against this guy if you think he is a better player because his range isnt the same that a normal player would play. In fact he could be playing quite strangely expecting you to do what you do ie thin value bet.

    So as we arrive at this play on the river I think you need to ask yourself a few questions:

    1) would this villain ever slowplay a big hand on this wet board thinking that you might bet in essence too thinly?
    2) Does he know you well enough to expect you to bet thinly?
    3) Can he ever be leveling you into thinking your hand is no good and ships to get you to fold what he thinks is a better but weakish hand ..maybe even ace high flush that YOU missed?

    If you think that he is possibly leveling himself or you because of the river bet size then I think its a sigh call because he could be doing this with say QQ.. I know its very odd.. but if he thinks he can get your off a better hand like a weak king it looks awfully strong??? or maybe he thinks you missed your draw on the turn and he is re-bluffing you???

    I dont think there is any way for us to tell you this was good or bad because this is a completely live read thing.. and only you would know ..

    ww
    That would be extremely odd for a guy to check AT on the turn on this wet of a board into 3 other players.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 752Subscriber
    Bart said:
    UTG villain is very tight, crunchy, late 20's pro. Doesn't make a lot of moves
    This description and his line reps KK. I fold here.

    Preflop, he definitely raises UTG with KK. Flop, he flopped top set, and could slow play.

    Turn, he has turned the overfull on a doublesuited wet board, so he can check expecting someone behind him to bet this board. He may have been planning to raise, but with you being to his immediate left and the other two folding could have changed his mind when it got back to him to let you catch up or barrel off. He knows his check, C/c line will look weak and be read by you as a draw or underpair. Thus, when the river bricks out, he continues his plan. If he knows you, then he can reasonably expect you to make a thin value bet OTR or try to barrel him an underpair if you missed.

    The only part that throws me off is the long tank on the river – did it seem legitimate or more for show?
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,386Subscriber
    This just looks like Kings full or a stone bluff. I think it should be pretty easy fold for a player of your caliber.
  • pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    If you don't know what to do here, I think the right thing is to figure out where you are in your value range and just play it GTOish (if he's bluffing, he needs to get through your value range well over 50% of the time, so deny him that by calling with the upper parts of your range). Given that you checked flop, I would think that your value range is pretty much completely Tx. So maybe call with AT and occasionally QT, but fold everything else.

    That being said, it would be very rare for a UTG raiser to have a hand you beat after not cbetting flop and check calling turn and making this move. He pretty much has to have JJ or QQ if he's bluffing. However KTs and especially KK seem completely feasible given his line. I think you should just give it up here.

    I also think AT makes some sense for his line. He could have been planning a check raise, but decided he gets more value HU with you by giving you the chance to bluff at missed draws on the river (if he has a ten, it's pretty unlikely you have a hand). It makes sense for the tank as well. But yeah strange of him to check it.
  • maphacks Posts: 1,985Subscriber
    he tanks for A FEW MINUTES? I would be shocked to see someone raising after A FEW MINUTES. this confuses me. under normal circumstances I fold but when he tanks soooo long I really consider calling. so sick..
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    I see almost no one ever tank for a really long time then ship as a bluff.. but again this is a leveling spot due to Barts sizing imho..

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    Bart said:
    Thehammah said:
    I think its likely villain has a ten as well.. or a pair of 4s and was heroing you on the turn. I mean QT or AT TJ are all hands that I would play this way against you.

    Against a better player I am playing alot more as calling against better players because they thin value bet so much more. he could be playing this line against you.

    So I think your overbet is a mistake against this guy if you think he is a better player because his range isnt the same that a normal player would play. In fact he could be playing quite strangely expecting you to do what you do ie thin value bet.

    So as we arrive at this play on the river I think you need to ask yourself a few questions:

    1) would this villain ever slowplay a big hand on this wet board thinking that you might bet in essence too thinly?
    2) Does he know you well enough to expect you to bet thinly?
    3) Can he ever be leveling you into thinking your hand is no good and ships to get you to fold what he thinks is a better but weakish hand ..maybe even ace high flush that YOU missed?

    If you think that he is possibly leveling himself or you because of the river bet size then I think its a sigh call because he could be doing this with say QQ.. I know its very odd.. but if he thinks he can get your off a better hand like a weak king it looks awfully strong??? or maybe he thinks you missed your draw on the turn and he is re-bluffing you???

    I dont think there is any way for us to tell you this was good or bad because this is a completely live read thing.. and only you would know ..

    ww
    That would be extremely odd for a guy to check AT on the turn on this wet of a board into 3 other players.
    hmm.. I check alot of tens into 3 other players.. maybe this is a leak???
  • BartBart Posts: 5,723AdministratorLeadPro
    edited December 2015
    Hammah, again I have to ask you are you reading the entire hand?

    If you raised with AT and checked a KT5cc board and it got checked through--on a Tss turn when BB checks to you would would check again with two players in the field to your left?
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    edited December 2015
    Bart said:
    Hammah, again I have to ask you are you reading the entire hand?

    If you raised with AT and checked a KT5cc board and it got checked through--on a Tss turn when BB checks to you would would check again with two players in the field to your left?
    no I get that.. I was trying to figure out how he might be playing this hand really backwards because you are in the hand.. but yeah thats not normal for sure..

    I can see someone playing KK this way ..not so much KT.. and 44s fit too from say a more normal line.. but your overbet might be messing with me too.. I wonder who is leveling who.. him or you.. or ME.. ha ha..
  • pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
    Bart said:
    Hammah, again I have to ask you are you reading the entire hand?

    If you raised with AT and checked a KT5cc board and it got checked through--on a Tss turn when BB checks to you would would check again with two players in the field to your left?
    I think it depends on who MP2 is. It could be that he wanted to punish MP2 for taking frequent stabs in spots like this (by an x/r). Also it depends on how aggressively people are playing their draws. Maybe he thought that clubs or straight draws are likely to have bet or will bet. There are some situations where I would check AT on this turn. Maybe I'm usually wrong for doing so, but I think it's possible to have reasoning behind it.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 752Subscriber
    I don't think a player described as very tight is opening ATo UTG. That Leaves just one combo: AdTd. Ditto for KdTd although I'm not sure he even opens that hand pre-flop.
  • pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    Well if he's a CLP subscriber, a pro, and very good, he may recognizes that bluff catching is negative EV here (I'm guessing Bart's showing up with Tx at least 2/3 of the time given action). So I don't know that his range really matters - that is, if he is going to shove or fold all of his weak made hands. Then he has way more bluffable hands than value hands for the shove. But that alone doesn't mean he's bluffing too much here as he's not going to just ship it every single time. I think the best we can do, if we think he has the ability to bluff in this spot, is to just stick to GTO and call off the top X% of our value range (AT and some QT).
  • workinghard Posts: 1,544Subscriber
    Well he could be going into a meta game where he's really using his crunchy image to get you to think he's not going to be able to afford his granola if he looses so it must be a value CR and he's repping the boat. however, I think in most cases this is a fold.
  • PocketAceTrader782 Posts: 439Subscriber
    I find it very unlikely he has a Tx here. For one he was the pre-flop raiser from UTG. Lets assume the tens he raises pre-flop are TJ to TA. TK he is betting on the flop. TA TJ, TQ, he will probably check the flop with although he would be the turn with that hand (plus its less likely that he has a T since you have one). This looks like a slow played K's full to me. IF he knows who you are, there is a good chance he would play the hand in this manner to get you to "value own yourself". I mean, I would play this hand against you that way.

    But anyway, if he did decide to play a T in this manner, there is no way in hell he is check raising the river with TA when you bomb it for that sizing. No way in hell. Its K's full. I would fold.

    Carmine

  • aaron Posts: 498Subscriber
    This just comes down to what this villian is capable of and would he turn QQ/JJ into a bluff in this spot. It's pretty strange to check a set on this wet of a flop unless there are other villian's in the hand that would induce that action. With this river sizing I don't even think 55/44 would always check/jam river and I def don't expect QT to check jam river. I don't think villian has missed draws as he'd be betting the turn himself with all of his AJs/AQs type hands.

    Value: KK/KTs (4 combos, give him 2)
    Bluffs: QQ/JJ (12 combos, give him 1)

    You're good here 1/3 so need 33%. You need 27% to BE so this is a call. If he has 3 value combos than it's a fold. Comes down to your read and range analysis and is pretty close. I will say that the few times I've been in a similar spot and made this call I haven't been good.
    by 1Bart
  • Amicus Posts: 188Subscriber
    I'd be annoyed, but this type of bet triggers my snap fold reflex

    Because you said he doesn't make a lot of moves. If he was the sick type, then there might be something to consider.

    If you really want to level:
    If you consider capped ranges, it's fairly unreasonable for you to have a full house. The only full houses you should have on this board that you would flat his UTG raise with are KTs and 55. It would be kind of weird for you to check after the PFR check if you had either of those two hands. I guess KK is also a small possibility too, but like KT and 55, you would almost never check the flop.

    So he could think, "Hmm, Bart's value range is a T at best. This guy always says that a river C/R is not a bluff. Let me turn my hand into a bluff and ship it to see if I can blow him off a T."
  • dontfeedthenits Posts: 396Subscriber
    Amicus said:
    I'd be annoyed, but this type of bet triggers my snap fold reflex

    Because you said he doesn't make a lot of moves. If he was the sick type, then there might be something to consider.

    If you really want to level:
    If you consider capped ranges, it's fairly unreasonable for you to have a full house. The only full houses you should have on this board that you would flat his UTG raise with are KTs and 55. It would be kind of weird for you to check after the PFR check if you had either of those two hands. I guess KK is also a small possibility too, but like KT and 55, you would almost never check the flop.

    So he could think, "Hmm, Bart's value range is a T at best. This guy always says that a river C/R is not a bluff. Let me turn my hand into a bluff and ship it to see if I can blow him off a T."
    I would level myself into calling in this spot following similar Logic to this, but fold is probably correct.
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