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Passive Villain Bets River when most draws missed.

ZambrotAZambrotA Posts: 372Subscriber
edited December 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$5/$5 cash game, crazy table dynamic, a lot of limping, people having fun.

Villain, UTG2 ($800), around his 30s, from Middle East, Loose Passive, plays at least 70% of his hands. He is one of the spots at the table.

Hero, cutoff ($650), playing at this table for 2 hours, not playing any hands, Super Tight.

No history between Hero & Villain.

I'm the Hero with 9 2 on the cutoff, I was sit out and came back at this moment to the table then I posted $10 on the cutoff as I missed the blinds. Every single person limped , I checked my option, the blinds did the same.

Flop (~$45) 9 8 4 9 handed

Everybody checks, I decided to bet $40 for value to get called by draws or middle pair.
Villain calls pretty fast on the UTG2.

Turn (~$125) 2 HU

Pretty good turn for me, couldn't ask better, I bomb $100 knowing that V is fishy and he is not folding open ended or top pair for sure. He calls again.

River (~$325) J HU. Final Board 9 8 4 2 J

V makes the motion like he is about to check, then kind of changes his mind and bets $260...

Hero??

Comments

  • tensor0910 Posts: 123Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    ugh....your bets are so strong yet he still calls.....by the river I think youve folded out all draws and only sets and 98 are sticking around. Plus I think its silly to go broke w/o the nuts in a limped pot. You played it well, but I fold.

    Since V plays 70% of hands do you have any HH examples? This may sway my analysis.
  • ZambrotAZambrotA Posts: 372Subscriber
    tensor0910 said:
    ugh....your bets are so strong yet he still calls.....by the river I think youve folded out all draws and only sets and 98 are sticking around. Plus I think its silly to go broke w/o the nuts in a limped pot. You played it well, but I fold.

    Since V plays 70% of hands do you have any HH examples? This may sway my analysis.
    Nice hand then, i called and i was beat. He shows QTo.

    I could bet smaller it's true but this guy was a calling station, i just wanted to get max value from "his draw". Or fishy top pair. I also don't mind the fold here as a lot of cards on the river are bad for my hand. I don't mind the fold but it's close in my opinion. It's very polarized from Villain.

    The HH that i would pit him are:

    AJhh-A2hh
    KQhh-K2hh
    QJhh-65hh
    QThh-75hh
    Q9hh-85hh




  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 226Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    When you say "Most draws missed" clearly you're referring to flush draws only because QT is a pretty obvious draw and with 70% vpip (estimated) you know he's not sticking to just suited cards. I wish you had waited a while before posting the results, it makes it harder for me to know whether or not I'm being a bit results oriented but here go's. It's rare for someone OOP to bluff a missed draw vs a consistent show of strength. The bluff usually comes when they've chased a draw IP and get checked to on the river. For this reason, the OOP bet is more often a value bet, especially when the draw comes in as it did in your case (not the flush draw of course). Also, weak players make weak bluffs and $260 into $325 is not weak. None of these things are in themselve's definitive but sometimes the donk gets there and if you're not folding here then when?
  • ZambrotAZambrotA Posts: 372Subscriber
    deadinaditch said:
    When you say "Most draws missed" clearly you're referring to flush draws only because QT is a pretty obvious draw and with 70% vpip (estimated) you know he's not sticking to just suited cards. I wish you had waited a while before posting the results, it makes it harder for me to know whether or not I'm being a bit results oriented but here go's. It's rare for someone OOP to bluff a missed draw vs a consistent show of strength. The bluff usually comes when they've chased a draw IP and get checked to on the river. For this reason, the OOP bet is more often a value bet, especially when the draw comes in as it did in your case (not the flush draw of course). Also, weak players make weak bluffs and $260 into $325 is not weak. None of these things are in themselve's definitive but sometimes the donk gets there and if you're not folding here then when?
    Ya my bad about the premature results posting but as nobody commented on my last 2 hand's discussions, i didn't worry too much about that. Anyway next time i wait a little bit more.

    I agree with what you said, at the time, what really made me call was the combination of his hesitation checking then me thinking that he had a hand like JT, QJ and he was not sure if "Value bet it" or not.

    But ya, hard to fold with so much shit i saw him doing. Anyway, as i said, i agree with your comment, i don't think it's the worst call ever but i could avoid it.

    Ty.
  • tensor0910 Posts: 123Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    Not that bad of a call, I don't blame you for not putting him on qt. I know he's sticky but in my experience most V's will fold draws to a turn.bet, and you definitely put the heat on him.

    One thing Bart days that I consistently use is "Villains at the lower levels rarely bluff rivers". When he bets the river that strong in a limped pot if I'm not holding the nuts it's almost a 100% fold.
  • afiguy357 Posts: 99Subscriber
    In my experience the cc,cc, donk river big line from a player like this is almost always the nuts.

    Paying that line off is easily my biggest leak
  • ZambrotAZambrotA Posts: 372Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    afiguy357 said:
    In my experience the cc,cc, donk river big line from a player like this is almost always the nuts.

    Paying that line off is easily my biggest leak
    ya, make sense to me. I'm glad it's not something that i remember hurting my game a lot, but this time at least was that exact idea and i couldn't avoid it. That turn plus the bad quality of my opponent made it harder to fold.

    Ty
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