$5/$10 at Commerce
Villain (UTG - $2000) - 30s Asian Male, hasn't been at the table long. Seems solid, hasn't gotten out of line, but small sample size.
Hero (Button - $1800) - 30s Black Male, neutral to negative image. Caught bluffing on a scary runout in a big pot not too long before this hand. Aside from that, preflop the tightest player at the table.
Preflop: Villain UTG opens to $40. Hero only caller on Button with K♠ J♠.
Pot $90. Flop Q♣ 9♠ 8♠. Villain bets $65. Hero calls.
Pot $220. Turn T♣. Villain checks. Hero bets $100. Villain calls.
Pot $420. River 5♠. Villain checks. Hero bets $600. Villain tanks and shoves ~$1000 more. Hero?
Preflop is okay I think. My plan was to fold the turn if I hit top pair, but he bet flop and turn. Raising the flop would be an overplay, so I just call.
Turn I hit gin. When he checks, I bet smaller to try not to blow him out. The only club draw he could have would be A♣ K♣, and if he hits that on the river, or the board pairs, I'm going to be able to get away without too much damage.
Flush comes home on the river, and he checks after a few seconds. He has all sets in his range, plus JJ. I don't know if I can get called by any of those on this board with a normal C-Bet, so I overbet. Good? Bad?
He tanks for a loooooong time, then shoves! Did my overbet induce craziness? Or did he read me for exactly what I have and get me with A♠ Q♠? Is this ever a bluff? Or a shove for value with worse?