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2/5 second pair top kicker

TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
UTG(425) straddle to 10, MP calls, Hero(700) in CO opens Ac9d to 40. Folds to UTG who calls, MP folds. HU to flop.
UTG is very loose PF, can play draws aggressively postflop, Plays often but not reg. Bit of a gambler. I expect him to defend his straddle about 80% of time.

flop (95) Kd9s2s, UTG checks, Hero bets 60, UTG calls
turn (215) 2d, UTG starts checking motion but stops midway, looks at the board and bets 75. The motion looks natural but I don't know what to make of it so I ignore and call. What do think about calling?
river (365) 5h UTG checks, Hero bets 100 for value.
What do you think?

Comments

  • BartBart Posts: 6,078AdministratorLeadPro
    I doubt the UTG is leading with a 9 on the turn. It seems to me that he either missed his draw or he has a weak K that he is planning on check calling. I am all for super thin value but this may be a little too thin.

    Bart
  • Doubleupnow Posts: 94Subscriber
    The turn lead does seem to be confusing. It might even be the case where he does not know why he is betting. Does he have a monster and is bating a check raise or does he have a mid-strength K or a strong 2nd pair hand like yours? I think I would just check back the river and avoid a very thin value bet. I just think his range is too close to your owm hand value to bet the river.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    If villain is playing draws aggressively posflop, this might be a good spot to check back the flop IMO.
    Villain's strange behaviour on the turn is more a sign of a medium to strong made hand than a draw / total air in my experience, so I am not betting the river for value. And I don't think you can bluff him of any Kx combos either, so betting probably doesn't accomplish much.
    Yes, he might have a few weaker 9x combos, but I don't think there are enough to justify a bet.
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