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$1/$2/$5 PLO - Turn decision

BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
$1-2-5 PLO
A 3 8 8 ($300)

Preflop: UTG goes $10, few calls, I call from CO, btn folds, we go 6 ways to the flop.

Flop ($65) 9 8 5
Checks to me, I bet $50, PFR calls, MP calls

Turn ($215) J
Pfr checks, MP bets $150, I have $240 in my stack...

I don't think PFR has a made hand, most likely had overpair and some kind of backdoor flush or gutter. He'd bet out if he made his hand, but could have picked up flush draw and will call whatever I do.

I haven't played with MP and this is 10 mins in so no real reads. If I had to guess I'd say this is probably 7T instead of QT, but I'm not sure with this guy.

Call, shove, fold?
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Comments

  • GhostDogGhostDog Posts: 328Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    Readless for me it's probably a fold. I don't think it's ever a call. That board is super connected and we can't be sure that all our boat outs are clean.

    I'd venture to guess that MP has at least a straight, and possibly picked up clubs to go with it. If he has QJT9, JT97 we're effed. Could also be 2p + FD, but that's like best case scenario other than naked FD or bottom set.

    I haven't done the math but just looking at it I think we're behind too often and likely aren't getting the odds to draw out. Would love to see what others think.

    *Edit: because I spell bad*
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    I'm assuming that MP almost always has T7xx or QTxx here without any other rEads. You have about 23% equity versus those hands heads up. The pot is laying you 445:150 in implied odds since I don't expect MP to fold for $90 more on paired rivers, so you need 25% equity to break even. Thus, you can't call profitably against only MP.

    If we assume the PFR calls, the pot will lay us 515:150, meaning we need 22.5%. There are 42 unseen cards (accounting for MP's two straight cards) and 10 of those pair the river. 10/42 = 23.8%. I think that is too thin to call because we can't be certain the PFR will call (or he could c/r) and we don't have the nut FH draw.

    If we were deeper, a call becomes more attractive in position because we could potentially rep clubs, Q, or T On the river.
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    I made the call hoping PFR would come in, knowing that it's a mistake if he doesn't - and by the looks of it (thanks HR) is razor thin even if he does....
    I call $150, PFR folds

    Flop ($65) 9 8 5
    Turn ($215) J
    River ($515) 5
    MP checks, I toss in my last $90, he makes a 'whatever' call and mucks to my 8's full.
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