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$5/$5/$10 Take a flop vs AA?

firespitter Posts: 243Subscriber
5/5/10 PLO, 2500 eff.

Villian is a good NL player who is new to PLO... I've kind of egged him on into taking up PLO to build our player pool.

2 ep limps, pro makes it 50 ep, HJ calls. I raise to 160 otb with A K Q T
Ok?
Sb pots to 610. Folds back to me.

At this point I am absolutely sure that he has AA. Pay 450 more for a flop with 1900 behind? I think if the ace in my hand was instead a jack is certainly do it. Maybe even just if I had a suited ace.

Thoughts on whether we are deep enough to see a flop? If not how deep would we need to be, or how much better our hand would need to be at this stack depth?

I fold. He shows A A 8
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Comments

  • GhostDogGhostDog Posts: 328Subscriber
    I'm curious about this too.

    I tend to think having the Ace in our hand sorta hurts us here since that takes away from our 2p draws. I'm curious too if having it suited changes that at all.

    I'm with you in that if you had a J here instead of the A then I don't think a call is horrible, but obviously I could be wrong and why I'm also curious about this spot. If it's the Js then I think it has to be a call.

    I'm not very good at preflop equities in plo by any means, but I'd venture to guess that a double suited Broadway rundown type hand is good enough at this stack depth to continue especially with position.

    Any reads on villains playing style? Like would he ever check fold "scary" flops? Is he the type to not stack off with one pair?

    Looking forward to reading more seasoned plo players take on this hand.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Yeah the ace in our hand definitely hurts us here to the point that I think it's an easy fold pre. We do have position so we can control the size of the pot post flop, but with a crippled hand we don't flop a lot of equity often enough to put $450 more in pre.

    There are some factors that might sway this more towards call: does villain x/f with unimproved, are we willing to semi bluff in this hugely bloated pot, does he blindly bet all flops?
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    3.3 on http://en.donkr.com/Articles/plo-from-scratch---part-3-219

    A bit worse because he's using a suited ace.
  • firespitter Posts: 243Subscriber
    I gave him a 4 as his 4th card and I only have 25% equity hot and cold... Not sure how much of that I could actually realize

    As far as Villians tendencies... He's only played PLO once or twice before, so I don't know what he'd do on certain boards... He doesn't know. He does however like to check/call AA on flops like 986 in NL.
  • firespitter Posts: 243Subscriber
    Good stuff bradleyT.

    So one model in that site has us putting in 12% of eff stacks vs AAxx and shows a small profit against an opponent that will blindly stack off on the flop. However putting in 37% of stacks pre is a big loser. So in my hand we're looking at putting in 25% of stacks pre, which isn't looking good. So just surrendering 16bb is the best option?
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    I would think so unless you know his tendencies and can steal pots that aren't yours like 345, 456, 578, type flops. You don't flop the required hand equity often enough so you have to make it up through post flop fold equity - stealing his equity. Add quite a bit more in your favor if you don't have to bet full pot to get him off a hand when you're bluffing.

    Unfortunately we don't know how he's going to handle flops, and we don't know his side cards so we do end up with like 0% equity on some of our bluffs.

    Result is marginal super high variance spot, just not really seeing much of an upside here.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    BradleyT, thanks for sharing. Here is my attempt to use the same approach as that Donkr article. Note that the article calculates from the first chip put in the pot, but in this case we need to calculate from the decision point of whether to call the 4bet of $450 more.

    Assumptions:
    1. Villain has AA:xx
    2. Villain bets every flop.
    3. We either commit or fold the remaining chips depending on if we have enough equity.

    We need (1320+1900):1900 = 37.1% minimum equity on the flop to GII. Using propokertools to graph, we have that minimum equity on 28.5% of flops. Using a very rudimentary method, I estimate the area under the curve to be 0.171. The average equity is then 0.171/0.285 = 0.596.

    EV = take flop, fold + take flop, commit
    EV = (1 – 0.285)(-$450) + 0.285{0.596($5120) - $2350}
    EV = -$121.82

    If the math and assumptions are reasonably accurate, this shows it is clearly a fold to the 4bet.

  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    ^Rerunning the calculations using the Jd in place of the Ad, it looks like you can call the 4bet profitably.

    We need (1320+1900):1900 = 37.1% minimum equity on the flop to GII. Using propokertools to graph, we have that minimum equity on 46.2% of flops. Using a very rudimentary method, I estimate the area under the curve to be 0.292. The average equity is then 0.292/0.462 = 0.6304

    EV = take flop, fold + take flop, commit
    EV = (1 – 0.462)(-$450) + 0.462{0.6304($5120) - $2350}
    EV = $163.37

  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    edited December 2015
    Gotta love seeing flops with rundowns, nice work.

    I'd also like to point out a potential in-game caveat to the method used above. It's assuming we know with 100% accuracy when our equity on the flop is XX% or above.

    K 8 9 we have 39.8%
    J 8 8 we have 37.1%
    J 6 6 we have 29.9%

    There will definitely be times when we don't recognize our equity being 37.1%+ and times we think we have 37.1% but don't. So we're going to miss some GII spots as well as GII bad sometimes both which make us want to get less money in pre.
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