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$5-$10 Snap Fold? (Podcast 1/5/16)

BartBart Posts: 5,955AdministratorLeadPro
edited January 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
This hand went down around 8PM at Commerce Tuesday night. Hero had a neutralish image. V1 is a bad, mid 50s, Persian recreational player. V2 is a late 20s unknown Asian. Haven't really seen much of note from him.

V1-$1220
V2-$1050
Hero-$2900

UTG limps, V1 limps in UTG1, MP1 limps, Hero raises to $60 with 7 7. V2 on button thinks for a few seconds and calls. SB calls, limpers all call. POT ($360)

FLOP: 6 2 2

Checked to Hero who bets $180. Button thinks for a bit and calls. Folded to V1 who quickly moves all-in for $1160 total.

Even though V1 is bad I don't think he ever has A2os in this spot nor would he over ship 6s full. Also highly unlikely that he would do this with some sort of overpair like 99. V2 is entirely an unknown. Snap fold or is there more to this hand?
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Comments

  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Interesting pre. I go back and forth between overlimping small - medium PP. Is there a podcast where you go over when to raise and when to overlimp with PP and SC because I would love to listen to it.

    I mean if we take A2o, 66, and overpairs out of V's range we don't loose to that much. Just the 2 combos of A2s and other random 2x. Problem is a lot of hands that do this have decent equity against us. Most bluffs have at least two overs and sometimes a FD which puts us at a coin flip. I would say this kinda looks like a FD and overs but it really depends. Sometimes this is just 67 being really weird and assuming they have the best hand now and trying to protect. But if we give V that we probably have to give him at least some 88 and 99 too. Hard to say. Think folding is fine as you are never crushing villains range, but I may lean toward calling as i think the shove takes out most nutted combos. I expect this to be overs with a FD, 6x or maybe a small overpair, even though you don't seem to think thats likely.

    Also not too worried about V2. Yes he probably has 66 and some 2x in his range but he also has a lot of other stuff that will just fold. If he knows anything he won't overcall with anything less than 99+ and AK, AQss. I think that's even a little loose but from description he may call lighter than he should.

    One more reason to call is just for info. This is a very weird shove and what he has will give you a lot of information about how he plays. IDK how often you play with the same people in your game but there is some value in getting information. Its a very small % of my reasoning but think we can consider it.

    However, you know the game much better and i'm just doing my best to make a guess. I think I would call but folding could very well be best and I do have a habit of calling too much.

    Peter
  • PocketAceTrader782 Posts: 441Subscriber
    I think the only real hands that beat you here are the two combos of A2 suited. I agree that it is very unlikely he has 6's full or an over-pair. With the two spades on board, there are a lot of over card & draw possibilities that he could have limped in with pre-flop. V2 might have an over pair higher than yours. I think the key is if you think he would fold an over pair then you can call.

    Carmine

  • baudib1 Posts: 218Subscriber
    I think it's pretty close. If we were closing the action I might call off here. With someone else having flatted flop bet I think I fold and probably call off JJ+ so V1 has 1 or 0 overs most of the time to mitigate the times that V2 is trapping.
    by 1DTMoore
  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    Not closing the actions vs their combined range it is a fold. Button is still uncapped too -- not a decisive consideration but even the shovers semi bluffs have a lot of equity versus you. If you can call and think button will fold then calling is probably not unreasonable. It doesn't appear we have enough information to make that determination with sufficient certainty.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,955AdministratorLeadPro
    I'm somewhat suprised more people don't find this spot Intersting...
  • x65Roses Posts: 20SubscriberProfessional
    what a weird spot. you would think that if he's limping with AA KK QQ pre, he would 3 bet you pre. I've seen people limp with hands like JJ and just flat pre. i think 99 TT JJ are all actually possible but not likely. if they're scared enough to limp with those they're probably not check shoving the flop. they're more likely to be the pot controlling type. I've seen this same play with an underpair actually. on a 994 board this lady shipped on me with 33. As dumb as that sounds, some bad players think "oh I'm most likely ahead, let me ship and get the over cards out." i think this is very player dependent. even though you have the young asian guy behind you, if you call i don't think he can ever call. even a hand as strong as TT or JJ is in a super tough spot. and we would assume he's 3 betting anything stronger. i think i lean toward a call here, but again its player dependent. obviously we're puking if he shows up with something like 88 or 99. one more thing... you said if he has A2 its almost always suited.... that being said i think he has all combos of K2s Q2s and i think we have to give him some combos of other suited 2s. that being said is he really check shipping those hands?
  • Pipboy Posts: 8Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    What I find interesting is that if we call, V2 will/should fold some hands that are beating us now. 88-TT, maybe JJ. V1 is heavily weighted to flush draws, some of which are combo draws--plus only 2 combos of A2s, a couple 6x, and the rare overpair. I think the pot odds are there to call it off if you think V2 will fold a lot.
  • aaron Posts: 498Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    You're going to fold out majority of v2's range here. If I'm in v2 spot I'm probably folding JJ and even QQ isn't an easy call. Majority of v1 range here is going to have 15 outs or around 50% equity. I don't mind getting it in here w dead money. He's Persian right??
    by 1Bart
  • BartBart Posts: 5,955AdministratorLeadPro
    I think that this hand is the exact opposite of the tweet that I sent out today.

    https://twitter.com/barthanson/status/682351896095539200

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    so do I have this right???

    If this guy doesnt have any overpairs and no 2s doesnt that mean he ONLY has combo draws? If so then your equity is really bad and yes its a snap fold..

    ww
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    aaron said:
    You're going to fold out majority of v2's range here. If I'm in v2 spot I'm probably folding JJ and even QQ isn't an easy call. Majority of v1 range here is going to have 15 outs or around 50% equity. I don't mind getting it in here w dead money. He's Persian right??
    hmmm.. 15 out draw..

    so are we squarely putting him on ONLY 34 and 54?? what about nut flush draws.. that also has what 40% equity against us too..

    so if his range is 34 54 Ax all spades that 3 combos.. and villain would have either 17 for oesfd 13 for gutter flush draw and 12 outs for overcard and flush draw..

    so I guess I am wrong with my previous post and yeah we should get it in..

    BUT we would have to be really really confident villain didnt slowplay some kind of overpair.. otherwise we are in deep shit..
  • aaron Posts: 498Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    Thehammah said:
    aaron said:
    You're going to fold out majority of v2's range here. If I'm in v2 spot I'm probably folding JJ and even QQ isn't an easy call. Majority of v1 range here is going to have 15 outs or around 50% equity. I don't mind getting it in here w dead money. He's Persian right??
    hmmm.. 15 out draw..

    so are we squarely putting him on ONLY 34 and 54?? what about nut flush draws..
    2overs+fd is 15 outs
    There is no oe fd
  • BartBart Posts: 5,955AdministratorLeadPro
    Thehammah said:
    so do I have this right???

    If this guy doesnt have any overpairs and no 2s doesnt that mean he ONLY has combo draws? If so then your equity is really bad and yes its a snap fold..

    ww
    It feel like sometimes you are not absorbing the entire hand when you post responses to these spots. Much like accurate hand recall at the table I think that this is something that you can work on to improve your game.

    Bart
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    Seems like a standard call given the read. It's actually a bluff call against V2 as he will often fold better pairs than 77.
  • Amicus Posts: 190Subscriber
    I think it's interesting, Bart!

    But I would have folded. I'm not used to action games, so I would probably fold too much in LA or LA style games

    It's interesting because:
    Like the above post mentioned, V2 will probably fold 88-JJ to your call.
    Would the Persian fish ever play a pocket pair higher than 77 as a limp-call pre-flop, or is he always raising these hands? It's more of a fold if he would limp-call with 88-99 and see the flop and say "I have an overpair, I guess I'm all-in"
    It's entirely possible that the fish would do this with a 2? Does he play 32s or 42s this way pre-flop?
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    edited December 2015
    we need around 36% if I am correct?

    Board: 6s2s2c
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 51.92% 51.92% 0.00% { A2s, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, 4s3s }
    MP3 48.08% 48.08% 0.00% { 7d7c }

    this seems reasonable to me. it acutally doesn't really change a whole lot if we add more flushdraws. we can add up to 5 combos of 88-TT/K2s/Q2s/32s and still call if we assume v2 is folding every overpair.

    v2 could of course have 66 or 22 but it's a very very tiny part of his range.
    by 1Toby
  • baudib1 Posts: 218Subscriber
    maphacks said:
    we need around 36% if I am correct?

    Board: 6s2s2c
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 51.92% 51.92% 0.00% { A2s, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, 4s3s }
    MP3 48.08% 48.08% 0.00% { 7d7c }

    this seems reasonable to me. it acutally doesn't really change a whole lot if we add more flushdraws. we can add up to 5 combos of 88-TT/K2s/Q2s/32s and still call if we assume v2 is folding every overpair.

    v2 could of course have 66 or 22 but it's a very very tiny part of his range.
    Discounting BTN in the equation is pretty dangerous because when he calls we are essentially drawing dead.

    Given villain description I doubt he has many overpairs as I'm guessing that most "late 20s Asian" players will be 3b vs. Bart with most of them in this spot.

  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    edited January 2016
    baudib1 said:
    maphacks said:
    we need around 36% if I am correct?

    Board: 6s2s2c
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 51.92% 51.92% 0.00% { A2s, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, 4s3s }
    MP3 48.08% 48.08% 0.00% { 7d7c }

    this seems reasonable to me. it acutally doesn't really change a whole lot if we add more flushdraws. we can add up to 5 combos of 88-TT/K2s/Q2s/32s and still call if we assume v2 is folding every overpair.

    v2 could of course have 66 or 22 but it's a very very tiny part of his range.
    Discounting BTN in the equation is pretty dangerous because when he calls we are essentially drawing dead.

    Given villain description I doubt he has many overpairs as I'm guessing that most "late 20s Asian" players will be 3b vs. Bart with most of them in this spot.

    well I am not sure if it's even a bad thing to have BTN calling us. he could have FD's as well and we are up against 2 flushdraws sometimes which is great. not 100% positive but I think EV is higher when BTN calls his FD rather than folding?

  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    The snap ship from that type of player can be almost any flush draw including 75ss, A3ss, Q8ss, K4ss. A decent portion of those have only 1 overcard to hero's 77 -- villain over limped in utg+1 so he will have two big spades a lot less often in this spot.

    Overpairs are a tiny portion of his range (almost nil) and would only even possibly include 88 and 99. This villain is typically going to make a huge raise pre with TT+ to try to win the pot now / avoid a bad beat.

    Call.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,569Subscriber
    The only hands that V2 can have that beat Bart are 66 and a couple combos of A2s or maybe K2s. he could also have overpairs like 88, 99, etc. The A2s type hands are discounted because V2 both called pre and only called the flop with action behind. So, he likely either has 66 or other pairs. A call would be a "merge call" to get the range of better hands from V2 to fold and go heads up with the likely draws from V1. Bart's action looks strong so I think it's a good play if he any reason to think btn might fold which I think a lot of players will fold 88-TT here. It's high variance though as Bart is counting on 1. btn folding a better hand, 2. V1 did in fact CR a draw and 3. V1's outs don't hit.
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