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5/10/20 QQ vs LAG

DonutDonkey22 Posts: 26SubscriberProfessional
edited January 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
5/10 with a mandatory utg straddle, one limp upfront hero (10k) makes it 75 from MP with QQ folds to Villain (3500) in the SB who 3bets to 300, hero calls.
Flop (650) T83r villain bets 500 hero calls
Turn (1650)9o villain bets 900 hero??

Villain is a LAG semi/pro who has a lot of gamble in him, and was spewing a bit earlier in the session but has since noticeably tightened up. He's generally a smart player though. Hero and villain have tons of history that may/may not be relevant to the hand...but at this point we both respect each other's games and haven't been playing back at each other much recently.

What should hero's plan be the rest of the hand? Is folding the turn an option?
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Comments

  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    What is hero's general image to him?

    Does villain 3bet light OOP much?
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    edited January 2016
    I guess there is no way this guy is ever folding AA,KK with the given history? against certain players and with slightly deeper stacks raising appears to be a decent option. it's pretty hard for you to be bluffing here.
    AP, I guess we have to fold without further information. the board isn't that great for him to double/triple barrell bluff and once he decides to bet the turn, stacks on the river will be awkward and it's gonna tough to find a fold. only hand I can see him overplaying is JJ but that has to be discounted a ton I would say if he is thinking. you probably have TT-88, QJs in your range and maybe even 33 or T9s,98s.
    QQ is more or less the bottom of your range I would estimate.

    also his 3bet is rather large especially for a straddled pot. that's probably a sign of strength?
  • Jonw23 Posts: 175SubscriberProfessional
    You really only have 2 options fold or play 5th street chicken. I prefer a fold in this spot. Villains range is uncapped and he probably perceives you capped at one pair.
  • Jonw23 Posts: 175SubscriberProfessional
    Also, the bottom of his 3 bet, double barreling range from OOP against a good player, should really be only be JJ and AK at this point. You lose to everyone else.
  • Jonw23 Posts: 175SubscriberProfessional
    *everything else^
  • DuDot Posts: 97SubscriberProfessional
    What's his OOP 3betting range? Is he 3 bet bluffing often, and if so, how likely is he to double and triple barrel bluff?
    Does he perceive you as someone who will fold to pressure?

    I'm not folding the flop and I'm often folding the turn. On the turn it's not a great board for him to barrel so I'd give him more credit for a real hand that includes JJ+ plus a semi bluff with any hand that contains a jack. I would expect a bigger turn bet size if he had a set.
  • I think we need a better read on his 3b range here.
  • firespitter Posts: 243Subscriber
    edited January 2016
    This is a tricky spot, as we're not usually too fond of the idea of getting stacks in with one pair. With this mindset in game I would probably fold most of the time, but I'm not sure that's correct.

    We are faced with a $900 bet to win 2550, or about 2.8-1. We would need to win about 27% of the time to make this call, if there were no more betting. If we call, pot will be 3450, and V will have 1800 behind.

    Suppose we give V a range of AA-TT. 15 combos beat us, 6 we beat, and one chop. Conveniently all these hands are 88-12. We would then have 35% equity. So we're in bad shape, but we are getting a good price to call IF it were to guarantee a showdown. Could we call turn knowing this, but expect to fold to a river shove? Given these assumptions this would be a winning play unless V would shove hands we beat (JJ) and cause us to make a bad fold.

    Should I have included 99 and 88 in V's range? Maybe. But I think we also have to give him some bluffs. This is trickier. Preflop it's easy to give him AK, but this is a bad board for him to double barrel. But if he sees your hand as what it is he might try it. Overall though you'd probably expect him to give up on AK ott.

    What about other hands? AJ? KQ? KJ? QJ? JT? Or just the suited combos of the above?

    I think with this preflop action if this type of Villian looks down at AJs or KQs or even KJo (if he doesn't want to fold) he is more likely to 3-bet against your raise than to flat.

    If we put some bluffs in his range then our equity goes up considerably. If we give V Suited AJ, KQ, KJ, QJ, JT as well, our equity is close to 50%.

    So if this is a better approximation of reality (and I do think V has to have some bluffs, the question is how many), then we're back to the question of whether we can call turn to play fifth street chicken. Will V bluff the river often enough that folding a blank river will be a mistake? He will be left with a half-pot bet, but still a large bet.

    I think from a theory perspective this is a call on the turn. Then on the river if V has about 25% bluffs and 75% hands that beat us when he shoves, calling and folding will be equal EV. If he bluffs more often that this, we should be calling, if he bluffs less often we should be folding.

    I expect to win most of the time when V checks river.

    Long winded I know but I found this spot very interesting. You can decide how relevant the theoretical approach is to the live game situation.
  • DonutDonkey22 Posts: 26SubscriberProfessional
    Villain considers me a tough and aggressive opponent. But I think he knows that I don't have quite as much gamble as he does (and I have a lot of gamble in me). He might think that this is a really good time to bluff me since I've just acquired a huge stack and might be on lockdown...I try never to lockdown as I think it's important for maximizing longterm success, but admittedly I did feel weak/tight during this hand....I ended up folding he didn't show. But I felt real uncertain about folding in this spot.
  • DuDot Posts: 97SubscriberProfessional
    My turn calling decision would depend on what type of range I think he's 3betting and how often he continues to barrel as a bluff. Sometimes I'm 4betting this hand preflop.
  • [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited January 2016
    Given the responses in this thread... wouldn't it be profitable to 3bet and 3-barell shove any two vs all of you? After all, how often will you have better than a pair? ;)
  • DuDot Posts: 97SubscriberProfessional
    JapanTown said:
    Given the responses in this thread... wouldn't it be profitable to 3bet and 3-barell shove any two vs all of you? After all, how often will you have better than a pair? ;)
    Probably, because our hand is usually 1 pair if we just call the turn. That's why I would want a better feel for his 3bet range/frequency and his barreling frequency. Against some opponents you need to close your eyes and call it off (or shove turn), and some opponents are rarely/never going to fire the second or third barrel as a bluff. It's a spot where most opponents will have a less than optimal bluffing frequency.

  • DonutDonkey22 Posts: 26SubscriberProfessional
    JapanTown said:
    Given the responses in this thread... wouldn't it be profitable to 3bet and 3-barell shove any two vs all of you? After all, how often will you have better than a pair? ;)
    this is a pretty bad board texture for one pair

  • DonutDonkey22 said:
    JapanTown said:
    Given the responses in this thread... wouldn't it be profitable to 3bet and 3-barell shove any two vs all of you? After all, how often will you have better than a pair? ;)
    this is a pretty bad board texture for one pair

    Not really. You're blocking QJ. What str8s does he have? 76s? That's if he 3bets that. So besides KK+ you're mostly afraid of TT, that's it.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    I don't see how we can be folding here. We described this guy as a LAG and we are going to fold a good overpair +GS just because he 3 bet us and then bet twice. In this type of game players are far to good to be folding this hand. Yes this guy is a semi-pro but i assume he still has a reasonable amount of light 3 bets and can be double barreling light here. And i know balance isn't as important live and whatever but if we fold here we are massively exportable. He can just barrel with any two if we are only continuing with two pair plus, which is hard to have.

    I mean for us to fold here we have to be saying he only has KK+ here and that is far too simple of an assumption to make for a player at this stake. Nothing beats us besides KK+ that wasn't a light 3 bet, besides TT but if he has TT he may have some extra combos of AQ in there. And if we are beat by a had that light 3bet then that means that he also has all those hands that he is semi bluffing with.
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    I think we could reputably shove turn to turn our hand into a bluff and get villain to fold out AA, KK, and QQ. You say you haven't been playing back at each other and he respects your game, so a turn shove looks SUPER duper strong. You have a lot more TT and 88 in your range than villain. You also have 6 back-up outs if called a small portion of the time.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    JapanTown said:
    Given the responses in this thread... wouldn't it be profitable to 3bet and 3-barell shove any two vs all of you? After all, how often will you have better than a pair? ;)
    I think triple barrell bluffing $3500 in a 5-10 game against a reg will work a good amount but eventually a good player will start to adjust. You probably would get me to fold a ton as well if I don't know you.

    one thing about this hand though: I would say hero (or at least I am) is close to the bottom of his range as odd as it seems. JJ,TT,88,99, and to a lesser extend T9s/98s/QJs/76s are all in heros range. other than some rare floats, QQ is one of the worst hands hero will have here. that would me my range at least...

    so even if balance would matter more, we are definetely NOT exploitable by folding QQ here.

  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    Awkward stacks.. Deeper I would definitely consider turning it in to a bluff with a decent amount of outs and credibly repping all the 88-TT that we do have in our range and potentially QJs. Think this requires a deep enough stack to raise turn and continue with a sizable bet on the river though. Here I'm probably done with the hand against most opponents, feeling OK about it knowing I have a bunch of sets in my over all range that I can call with. An option is to call and hope he shuts down river.

    Out of all the hands we call pre+flop QQ is one of the weaker hands (counting JJ as stronger) we arrive here with which helps me motivating the fold against a good aggro semi pro.
  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    Occasionally you see some players check their KK/AA here just because they will hate life if they get shoved on, we might actually fold all weaker hands plus the board smashes our range. If that type of player continue bluffing here it's something that we can exploit the shit out of. I try to look for this and I have seen it, but it's nothing I would count on from a smart reg if I don't have reads that indicate this.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Against LAGs at high stakes we do need to start considering adding QQ to our 4bet value range
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