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river decision vs unknown, what is his spaz-bluff frequency?

jossimar Posts: 7Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hand played in London at £1/2, villain has 260 and I cover. He is an American gentleman, in his 50's and his wife is also playing at the table. He is fairly loose and has shown a river bluff to one of his friends he is drinking with. He knows nothing about me.

Two limpers and I raise on the button with A9o to 10. The blinds fold (including his wife, who jokingly says I shouldn't get in the way of a marriage dispute!) and the 2 field limpers call.

Flop (pot 33) is AJ9 with two spades (inc the Ace). I have no spades. Checked to me and I make it 20, EP folds and villain calls.
Turn (pot 73) is offsuit K: He checks, I make it 50, he thinks for a second and makes it 100. I call.
River (273) is offsuit 5: He pushes all in for 133. I think for a while and fold.

I am getting about 3-1. The only value hand I can see him having here is QT, which I think he has most of the time. I can't rally see him playing a flush draw this way or KJ because I think it looks as though I have 2 pair minimum when I call the turn check-raise. I just can't see myself being good 25% when he shoves. Also I think that the presence of his wife is a small factor against him wanting to be felted. However, thinking about it now, he could have hit a K and a flush draw on the turn, although perhaps I am just inventing hands. I know there is always a small % of bluffs in people's range but this surely would be a terrible spot to do so? Against an unknown, is this always a fold?



  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    In my experience most rec players don't play kxhh as a min check raise on the turn. They'll either block bet or maybe check/jam or something if they want to be bluffy.

    Do you think villain ever overplays j9, k9, kj here? He probably doesn't play aq this way and you'd think he would raise aq. You also don't beat aj if he didn't raise pre.

    What sucks in llsnl is guys will sometimes randomly overplay worse hands.

    I would probably lean fold. What was the situation where he river bluffed btw? Might help. You wouldn't expect guys to run 2 street bluffs.
  • JerseyJay Posts: 181Subscriber
    Without a ton of thought, im folding here and not thinking about it again. Youmguys are not deep, so people can slowplay a little and still get all the money in.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Are you folding AA as well?
  • jossimar Posts: 7Member
    I can't really remember the hand he showd as a bluff, but it was against his drinking buddy so not sure how useful it would be. I think my hand is equivalent to AA as I only lose to AJ which I think he raises preflop with. If I knew more about him, and that he was a terrible player there is more chance he is overplaying two pair and I may lean to a call.

  • The ole check/min raise with few behind. Bart talks a lot about how strong this move is and i 100% agree. probably the biggest indicator of strength ever. You can fold your entire range here, he's got QT 98% of the time here.
  • JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
    The guy is drinking. Next time, ask him if your Ace is good here, show the Ace and fold. He is drinking and wants to show off for friends and wife. Either he will show a bluff or tell you no. Or yes... or maybe". Basically, ask him.

    Personally I get lost in hands like this one. I have recs who love to min-raise bluff and min-raise value. This is an important hand to destroy this player with. If you can just ask him to show you he might.
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    JCW said The guy is drinking. Next time, ask him if your Ace is good here, show the Ace and fold. He is drinking and wants to show off for friends and wife. Either he will show a bluff or tell you no. Or yes... or maybe". Basically, ask him.
    I never fold face up. Especially if you show real hands people may decide they can bluff you, which you really don't want to encourage. We know that A5 is crap here, but for all you know some fish not even in the hand thinks ace/anything is the nuts here. Then randomly later he decides to bluff shove the river in a big pot because he saw that.

    Usually you can get the same results by saying "I'm folding a pretty good hand. Do you have 2 pair?" or w/e and they'll show or honestly tell you what they have. Sometimes I'll just speculate on a random hand. "You must have J9 right?" If they have better they'll want to show better so they look even stronger. If they're bluffing they want to show you they tricked you.

    You wouldn't believe how many times I've said "Deuce seven off right? That's a sick bluff sir" and the guy just flips over his hand. I don't know why it works but rec players just want to show they're not bluffing or w/e.
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