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Any laying down top boat here?

WillWay Posts: 35Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/2 NLHE, 100-300 BI, $450 eff.
Passive, loose game since has tightened due to a few larger pots.Hero has good solid image, while Villain is nitty, but has balanced range incl. raising, calling w suit. conn., and suit. 2 gaps over last half hour.
Hero ($450) : MP1 with AcKh raises standard in game to 10.
Villain ($525): calls in MP2. Everyone else folds.

Pot: $23

Flop:

http://www.stevedawson.com/pokercards/7h.gif http://www.stevedawson.com/pokercards/7s.gif http://www.stevedawson.com/pokercards/ks.gif

Hero leads for $14, Villain clicks back for $28; Hero thinks and calls.

Pot: $79

Turn:

http://www.stevedawson.com/pokercards/kc.gif

Hero leads with $30, Villain pauses, then calls.

Pot: $139

River:

http://www.stevedawson.com/pokercards/qh.gif

Hero bets $76, and Villain makes it $220. After tanking for 1 min., Hero calls, and Villain rolls over

http://www.stevedawson.com/pokercards/kd.gif http://www.stevedawson.com/pokercards/qs.gif

After getting that price,is there any getting away from the call? Am I good 1 out of 4 times here?

Thanks,
Will

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I think its almost always a chop or he has 77.... One combo of 7s and every K..


    This is much different then if the board was

    K 7 2 K Q

    Players so often will shove when they have a K on your board that I just not sure if its smart to fold given its so unlikely villain has a KQ.. If you were much deeper then you get into a pretty sick spot but with the effective stacks I think you just have to call and tap the table..

    Wendy
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    You said the opponent is Nitty, if you really believe he is a nit then the re-raise smells. at best you are getting a chop so you have to ask yourself is the villain capable running a re-raise bluff ? or re-raising the river with KJ or less? what is he calling your preflop raise with that fits this betting pattern ? Look back at past play, has he ever raised any street and not had it ?
  • WillWay said

    After getting that price,is there any getting away from the call? Am I good 1 out of 4 times here?

    Thanks,
    Will
    I think at best you are calling for a chop. So the pot is 435, and you need to call 144 to at best win 218. So you need to be good about 2 out of 5 for the chop. It all depends on how you weight his combinations. Here given the description I don't think he plays other K's lower than KQ for a small re-raise on flop so his range is narrowed down to 3 combos of KQ, 1 combo of 77 and 3 combos of AK. As it turns out you are just getting the right price to call for the chop. When is raise is at least another $175 you are no longer getting the right price to call to chop.

    From his end I'd be shoving, I don't see many opponents at this level (and higher) not calling.
  • WillWay Posts: 35Member
    Thanks for the replies, guys. The general concensus points to what I thought about in retrospect: I am only calling to chop at best.
    -Yes, Mr. F it did 'smell funny' as you said with the reraise since he was a steady nit, but he had seen me bet thinly for lower pairs on higher prd. boards i.e. T T 6 and betting 7s for value; didn't know if he figured me for something like Qs or Jax on the flop, etc.
    -Wendy, I did think about the deeper stack scenario, and I cringed! I believe I would have called then as well, and chalking it up to run-bad. I will consider however more carefully when deeper in a similar spot in the future...it was brutal, Hammah ; )
    -CS, his past play did indicate at the least the combo of KQs in retrospect, and possibly even to set mine with 7s there...at best I'm chopping with AK. It is true that at this level of 1/2 shoving would be the proper play against most...he would have had me calling at those stack depths, but not in deeper waters after reviewing this hand...

    Thanks again, and may the run-good be with you-

    Will
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