$2/5 1000 max buyin NL
Villain 1 ($1000) 30's white guy. Not really sure if he's a reg - I don't know all of the 2/5 regs yet. Opening a fair amount with these $15 opens. Average aggressiveness post - haven't really seen him bluff a ton. Not a nit and probably would cbet decent hands on the flop.l
Villain 2 ($800) Older white guy. Able to make folds postflop - he'll say "I got a piece of that" but still fold. Not good though. Would never slowplay this kind of flop with a set or top 2. He might just call JT I suppose or MAYBE AT, but he'd probably raise AT IMO. 3b's frequently for an older tighter guy. 3b TT and showed, and also 3b a few other times without showing. I'm assuming he 3b's AK a fair amount of the time.
Hero ($1000) Playing fairly tight. Won several medium sized pots, but basically running cold and haven't played a ton of hands for the last hour or so. Haven't shown any bluffs, and don't have real history with either player.
Folds to V1 in MP2
V1 raises to $15
Hero (HJ) Kh Qc calls $15
CO calls $15
V2 (button) calls $15
Sb/bb call $15
Flop: Ac Jc Ts
Checks to V1, V1 checks, Hero bets $65, co folds, V2 calls, sb/bb fold, V1 overcalls
Turn: Ac Jc Ts 5c
V1 checks, hero?
Is this just a bet/fold? If I face a raise I'm drawing to 7 outs here really, and I don't even have the nut draw. My draw is also super obvious.
V1 is not check/overcalling a set or 2 pair. He probably doesn't check the nut flush draw although he might get scared 6 ways. Txcc would probably bet. AK/AQ would probably bet. Maybe A9 or something gets scared and checks. He could conceivably check something like 67cc scared of multiway action and call. I don't know if he check/overcalls KJ or KT with the Kc. The only real way IMO he can call another bet here is if he specifically has KJ/KT with the Kc or KK with the Kc and c/c flop. He could also have a flush here, although some of the time at least he donks a lower flush.
V2 might peel with any ace really. He'd never slowplay a set, and when the flush comes I think he folds single paired aces and basically most of his range unless he hit a flush (very possible as he calls somewhat light pre), or if he somehow didn't 3b AxKc. He might not call KJ or KTo with 4 players left to act.
I have the Qc in my hand, so I actually have outs vs a lower flush, and if I check the turn I think maybe I can get looked up on the river by hands that might fold fearing 2 streets of bets when the flush comes. It also kind of announces I don't have the flush, so single paired aces might call.
I thought it was kind of tough for worse to call me, although I think I should probably have just bet/folded b/c my draw kind of sucks.
I actually checked (maybe terrible), v2 checks back.
River: Ac Jc Ts 5c 4d
V1 leads for $170, hero?
Is my hand a bluffcatcher at this point? I was really trying to figure out if I beat a significant number of hands he'd bet for value.
I think we can rule out 2 pair on the flop and flopped sets. Could have have a4 or a5? I guess it's possible that he got scared to bet the flop and backed into 2 pair. I don't think he check/overcalls AQ or AK on the flop, but I guess it's possible. Does he bet out a9 here? I don't know if he check/overcalls - he might just bet the flop.
Of course any flush is going to bet in this case, but my hand is pretty underrepped.
I'm getting 2.6-1 so I need to be good 27% of the time. I think V2 never has a flush (he'd bet the turn) so I'm not worried at all about getting raised behind IMO.
Do I just have a bluffcatcher? How easy of a call is this (or is this ever a fold).