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Too weird of a line with unlikely trips OOP vs an aggressive player

PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$2/5 $1000 max buyin NL

Hero ($500) just sat down about 15-20 minutes ago from another table. Haven't played with villain before. Had a little conversation with him, but didn't really talk poker. The game is down to 7-6 handed so I opened a few times from later position. Probably don't look like an aggro maniac or something but don't have a nitty image. No showdowns yet.

Villain ($1500) Might be a reg - not sure. Seems fairly active and/or aggro. He called 64s pre in a raised pot from the bb, flop T97r got checked through, he donked like $70 into $100 on a 5 turn giving him open ended to kinda a crappy straight draw and called a raise to $175 (guy started with about $500). He hit a 3 and shoved the river and got called by a set. I've also seen him fire multiple barrels as the PFR several times and he had a few where he bet very large on the river. The only one I saw at showdown was the 64 hand. Seems on the aggressive side but I don't know. I only have about 30 mins of observations (in a shorthanded game though).

I think it was 7 handed with maybe 1 guy sitting out. My $20 opens were not getting calls so i dropped it to $15

Folds to me in CO
Hero (CO) Qs 9s raises to $15
Villain (Button) calls $15
BB calls $15

$45
Flop: 9c 9d 5s
BB checks, Hero bets $25, villain calls, BB folds

$95
Turn: 9c 9d 5s Kh
Hero checks, villain bets $60, hero calls

$215
River: 9c 9d 5s Kh 6d
Hero checks, villain bets $150, hero shoves for ~$250 more? Hero calls?

Maybe this is too weird of a line

I thought villain sometimes would raise trip 9's on the flop although it's very dry. So I think a lot of the time he's going to show up with a low to medium PP, maybe some kind of gutshot, or maybe an ace high hand he thinks is good. I thought he also might float 2 random overs since I'm probably cbetting anything on this board.

Normally I'd just bet again, but the king is such a good barrel card that I thought he'd fold a lot of his pp's and if he floated me he probably just folds to another bet. I could bet and hope to get raised by a nine, but I just don't think a nine is necessarily a huge part of his range. If I check, I think he's always betting trip 9's, if he ran into a king he probably bets for value (he doesn't seem to have a problem betting) and he might bet random floats or bluffs. He could be running hot, but he also could be a bluffy guy for all I know at this point.

78 gets there on the river but I don't think he has that very much. I thought a bet/check/bet line looks too strong. I almost bet the river, but I thought if I check he probably still bets a king, definitely bets trip 9's and might bluff again if he's inclined to bluff. When he bets $150 I think now there's a real possibility he does have trip 9's.

Is shoving the river as played an overplay? My line looks really bizarre - it's almost like I should have quad 9's or KK kings full here if I do that. K9 is less likely because of the king. He absolutely could have A9s or maybe A9o, but people also like to play hands like Q9s-97s and sometimes J9-98o for a call in position, and is he really going to fold T9s to a river check raise? Pot would be around $750, $250 to call so he'd be getting 3-1 and in practice are guys really folding trips in this spot? If he somehow has KJ my line is so weird might he even call?

Maybe one of my leaks is taking really weird lines against people I perceive as regs or aggro, so if this is terrible please let me know it.

Comments

  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    But if he's aggressive and knows that you know that the K is a good turn barrel card, maybe he's floating to bluff raise the turn to try to represent the 9. Might as well bet and let him try to get you off a K or bluff you because he thinks you're barreling.

    If he's both aggro and stationy, then maybe you get called by worse on the river

    I think just calling the river might be better. Your line looks weird, but weird from a good player who is aware of what he's repping usually means a nutted range like you have 99 or KK. I would probably fold a 9 with a medium kicker to you if you played it in this manner (but now that I'm saying so, next time you take a similar line against me, I might have to call ;)
  • I would probably fold this preflop with a 100bb stack, but I'm not the preflop police. I just feel that you have less leeway to barrel off with just 100bb. I think just bet/bet/bet is best here. I'd start with $30 on the flop. He's not folding any pair. The turn is a pretty good card against an aggro player who might think you're fos. Bet again. River is a bet/fold. You lose to 55, A9, K9, and 87. I think as played, you should just call the river. Little too much FPS this hand, IMO.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    If he's genuinely that aggro - and if he's doing that much firing in a half hour, in a short-handed game, he very much could be - I don't hate this line, since I feel like he has a fairly high spazz out bluff frequency. That said, if you C/R the river I feel like it's going to be close if you are good more than 50% of the time - you lose to A9 and K9, beat J9/T9/98. Combo wise this is weighted towards the hands you beat, and like you said he probably isn't going to fold a 9 here.

    That said, if he's not a bluffy player, this line is way worse than just going bet/bet/bet. I think it makes sense against a super aggro player, though.
  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    I would either bet/bet/bet or check/call flop and bet turn+river. The reason why I might sometimes check flop is because it is so dry. I think villain can have alot of worse 9's, alot of Kx and rarely straights/houses.

    As played I think I would either shove or minraise/call. If I think villain will call a minraise with a king i would lean towards that because I think he can have more Kx than 9x. If villain will laydown Kx no matter what then I would shove to get full value from 9x (i think there is more 9x than there are straights/houses).
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    Coming into the turn i planned on a bet/bet/bet line. I definitely would just continue to bet if the turn was a low card etc.

    I really don't know if he calls a checkraise with Kx on the river. Probably he doesn't. Bart mentions a lot that guys will sometimes look you up light because they just never see anyone take a certain line. My line looks so weird that I wondered if he'd look me up with KJ here or something just because no one takes my line with pretty much anything ever.

    That being said he probably should a weak 9 on the river because no one is ever bluffing in this spot. Just don't know if he actually does it.

    I'll post results tomorrow in case you guys are interested. Maybe some other people want to comment first.
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    If anyone is interested, I ended up just calling river and villain showed 98 and I won.

    Thinking back I probably stack if I just bet/bet, but I guess I'm ok with it.
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