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Flopped flush , deep, pressure from PFR

CT Posts: 62Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2-5
Hero on Btn w $1000
Villian 1 BB w $1400
Villian 2 HJ with $400

Villian 1 is tighter but level 1 thinker, no value bets shown in past 1.5 hr played. Deep Stack is due to 2 flopped nuts and in 1 hand having 2 players get all in to him
Villain 2 nothing much to date little action or read , but short stack at this time of hand
Hero. Image competent, semi regular. Other 2 are not regs

Limps around I just call on Btn w 9s8s
V 1 in BB makes it 25
Call V 2 and I call.

Flop A 10 5 All spades

V 1 leads with $30 bet
V 2 calls
I make it $90

V 1 goes ALL IN
V 2 folds
.. I Think this is pretty clear cut as to what V 1 has (possible 2 hands , likely 1 hand) Note. There is is a royal payout bonus in this room It's over $1000

Call ? Fold ?

Comments

  • SKOOSKOO Posts: 160Subscriber
    thats a clear fold. he's not jamming 200bb with a set, rather he's probably putting you on a 2p/set type hand.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    JOHNJACKSON II said

    thats a clear fold. he's not jamming 200bb with a set, rather he's probably putting you on a 2p/set type hand.
    Sorry I disagree.. Level 1 thinkers and preflop raisers have AA here alot.. I once saw a guy do something pretty much the same with a set when I was at aria. He had 1000+ in a 2/5 game and overshoved on the flop to "protect" from a perceived draw.. He got called by the nut straight and then filled up. His response "I had to shove I had a set!"

    These guys just have no idea of relative hand strength.. If he is a player who you have seen overplay overpairs and the same then he has a set of AA here alot.. Its really up to you as a player if you call or not. What I know for sure is he doesnt have the nut flush.. That he would have slowplayed and is he really raising 25 preflop with Kx ss? again most of these types of player would limp that hand..

    I think its like 75% he has AA here and the rest would be a flush.. Its up to you if you think you are OK if you guess wrong and lose a big pot.. Quite honestly I am not sure what I would do in this spot..

    ww
  • JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
    Tough spot.

    Villain most likely does have a flush or a set here. Unless he knows you have a flush yourself and is "reading your soul" and knows you are going to pay him off, then this bet is out of fear.

    Since few people in his world most likely fast play flop flushes. He have something there he is protecting. My only worry would be that it is a Jack high flush.

    Against his sets, you are ahead.
    Against many of his flushes, you are ahead.
    A few of his flushes, you are drawing dead.

    So personally I would call. But realize that he is going to win this often enough that it is close.

    If he does "read your soul" and is value betting a better Flush, then you have your mark or you have a terrible tell you must find and fix.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    You have to consider what hands he would make it 25 from the BB with two limpers. Would he raise bigger if he had AA or would he make it $25 to make sure he gets callers? Compare this to his usual sizing. Fish tend to raise bigger with AA and play it face-up, whereas I probably would have made it $25 with AA in this spot to encourage the limpers to call.

    Do you think KQs in his raise to $25 value range? Or does he just like to bloat the pot from the blinds with any semi-decent hand?

    If this is his normal sizing for raising with AA and you think he would tend to check hands like KJs, KQs, QJs, etc, then it's more of a call. If not, I would lean towards a fold because you're not getting good odds and you're drawing pretty dead when you're behind.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Before TDF yells at me for another bet sizing with AA discussion (yes, this is just for TDF):

    If P then Q, but not if Q then P. So fish tend to make it bigger with AA because they're afraid of getting sucked out on. But making it bigger doesn't automatically make you a fish.
  • I'm not sure what is up with his initial $30 bet into an $80+ pot on the flop or your small raise of $90, but I'm calling off here and feeling pretty good about it. Sometimes he'll show up with a bigger flush, but I think this is a set a lot and probably TT. The $25 raise over limpers (it would be nice if you provided HOW MANY limpers and pot size) isn't big and I would expect more from AA, but it could still be AA sometimes. I'm not calling with 98s and then folding a flush in this type of spot.
  • CT Posts: 62Subscriber
    I think you have to take into account his pre flop bet in BB - would a level 1 player bet pre fop w Kx ss? would he bet small then shove on flop with the nuts? with my action - he is giving up a lot of $ to shove woth the nuts - besides the point that i would rarely see a shove with the nuts by this type player.

    so i would eliminate all Kx ss hands (or even KsJs)- he cannot have K-10ss due to board - why would he do this with QJ ss - why would he do this w/ 34 ss

    we should be assigning a range pre flop - then re-evaluate on flop... - his action of all in when this deep changes alot ...IMO

    What could he raise pre with and in BB and then ship with on the flop AFTER I raised his c/bet on the flop...

    the Hammah is right that Level 1 does a lot of pretection of hands - they want the W not the $

    I narrowed his range to either AA or AxKs - I think it is so much so that i cannot even think of another hand that would play this way so deep - its like 95%+ these 2 hands - so the question is - is that new range analysis correct? if so then what do you do?
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    There are three combos of sets of AA and three Combos of AxKs.. thats 6 combos only.. I calculated your equity and it comes out at 82% given these hands.. If this player would raise more with AA then sets of Tens and AxKs would be more likely .. If you add the three extra combos of sets of tens then your equity is reduced to 79%..

    Its a call if that is the range of villain and he doesnt play any KsXs.. If you add a little KsXs.. I added KQss and KJss and our equity is still over 75%

    Wendy
  • CT Posts: 62Subscriber
    I am not sure why equity changes from AA, AK vs. AA, AK and 10-10 - please explain.

    I am about 75% + of any range of hands that is limited to top pair and better flush draw or a set - does not matter which set, or better flush draw, etc

    FWIW - I think you could even eliminate one (1 only) spade from the short stack call that was in the middle of all this (this is a technical point, not relevant at time of play - whether he folded 1 spade or not has immaterial impact to my descision making once PFR goes all in)
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    When I calculated all the equities it was highest with just one set.. because that leaves only 6 combos of hands that you are up against.. When you add the extra set either AA or TT it adds three more combos.. Then when I added the KQss and the KJss that added an additional 2 combos.. the worst case scenario where villains range is AA, TT AxKs, KQss and KJss you have a total of 11 combos against you .. 11/45 =24.4% 100-24.4=75.6% your equity against worst case scenario..

    with one less set then there were only 8 combos.. so your equity become higher but villain outs are the same..

    wendy
  • CT Posts: 62Subscriber
    OK - I was and did not again include KsQs , KsJs , QsJs in his range - I know that it is possible, just I weight it as very unlikely - I see it now

    to the end..

    as i have stated I weight his hands so strong to be sets and AxKs that I called.

    he shows AxKs - spikes spade on river

    reload

    In the end - i still think the anlysis was on.. it was just a question of do you put in the possible other higher flushes as more likely than I did
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    CT said

    OK - I was and did not again include KsQs , KsJs , QsJs in his range - I know that it is possible, just I weight it as very unlikely - I see it now

    to the end..

    as i have stated I weight his hands so strong to be sets and AxKs that I called.

    he shows AxKs - spikes spade on river

    reload

    In the end - i still think the anlysis was on.. it was just a question of do you put in the possible other higher flushes as more likely than I did
    I think whether he has higher flush is really villain dependent. Thats why paying attention is so important. If you had seen villain raise more with AA for example then you should remove that from his range or severely reduce it. If you have seen villain raise with say JTss then you need to include alot more flush combos..

    whats great about Pkr Cruncher is you can select the actual combos you want. So I could go in and see that there were only three combos of AxKs,, Say you do discount AA.. you can edit the range to say only include 1/3 or all AAs.. its really makes it easy to see your equity against a range that includes some combinetrics (i am sure I have spelled that wrong).

    Also I think I am calculating the equity correctly by the 45 unseen card rule but please let me know if that is wrong.. I am getting more into combo analysis and its a good idea to double check if I am thinking this incorrectly.

    ww
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Wendy, I think you have a slight mistake in your calculations. If we want to calculate our equity vs. a range, we have to perform the following steps:
    1) list all possible hands which villain could play this way
    2) calculate the equity of our hand vs each hand in villain's range individually
    3) count the number of combos of each hand in villain's range
    4) multiply the equity of each hand in villain's range by the number of possible combos of this hand and the divide by the number of all combos in his range

    Following these steps, we get the following:
    1) AA, TT, AxKs
    2a) Vs a set, we have 65.6%. There's no difference in our equity if villain has TT or AA.
    (The reason is that villain is behind on the flop and needs to boat up or hit quads to win at showdown. He has 7 outs on the flop and 10 outs on the turn. All his outs are the same with AA and TT)
    (shortcut: 7 times 2 plus 10 times 2 = 34, plus 10% of this is 37%)
    2b) Vs. AxKs, we have 68.3%. Villain needs to hit a fourth spade, so there are 7 outs left for him.
    (shortcut: 7 times 4 is 28, plus 10% of this gives us 31%)
    (it's not exact, since on a 7s or Js turn, we have two outs as a straight flush redraw; on a 6s or Qs we have one redraw out.)
    3) AA = 3 combos, TT = 3x, AxKs = 3x
    4) [ ( 3 * 65.6% ) + ( 3 * 65.6% ) + ( 3 * 68.3% ) ] / 9 = 66.5%

    All in all, there's hardly any difference between a set and AxKs, so it won't effect our equity much if villain plays TT like this.
    KsQs type hands are much different, since we are basically drawing dead against them.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    And the above is the reason why Pkr Cruncher is the shits.. Wink
  • SKOOSKOO Posts: 160Subscriber
    Thehammah said
    JOHNJACKSON II said

    thats a clear fold. he's not jamming 200bb with a set, rather he's probably putting you on a 2p/set type hand.
    Sorry I disagree.. Level 1 thinkers and preflop raisers have AA here alot.. I once saw a guy do something pretty much the same with a set when I was at aria. He had 1000+ in a 2/5 game and overshoved on the flop to "protect" from a perceived draw.. He got called by the nut straight and then filled up. His response "I had to shove I had a set!"

    These guys just have no idea of relative hand strength.. If he is a player who you have seen overplay overpairs and the same then he has a set of AA here alot.. Its really up to you as a player if you call or not. What I know for sure is he doesnt have the nut flush.. That he would have slowplayed and is he really raising 25 preflop with Kx ss? again most of these types of player would limp that hand..

    I think its like 75% he has AA here and the rest would be a flush.. Its up to you if you think you are OK if you guess wrong and lose a big pot.. Quite honestly I am not sure what I would do in this spot..

    ww
    You're right. I didn't see that it was RAISED from the BB. I was under the assumption it got limped around. sorry for my first post/misread Embarassed
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