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Set gets raised by pretty passive player

PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$2/5 $1000 max buyin NL

Hero ($1000) Won KK vs AA for like $500 on like my 2nd hand at the table. Since then I've played fairly straightforward and tight as the game isn't great and I haven't really been getting cards. I had a few spots where I cbet and got called or raised and had to shut it down. I had 1 hand vs villain where I cbet a A24 2 spade flop with QT not spades, he called and I just shut it down. I didn't realize how light he peeled at the time. Turn went check check, river was a ten and checked through and I won with the tens. He said I got lucky so apparently he had some kind of small pair.

Villain ($700) Pretty stationy player. Fairly loose preflop and doesn't really like to fold to raises. He peels a ton on the flop, but usually gives up the turn unless he has something decent or a draw. This guy wouldn't slowplay, especially on a flop this wet. So if he flopped a set or 2 pair or a straight he would raise there especially when I bet big. Haven't really seen him play any huge pots. From what I've seen he's passive post. If he has a draw he's not going to fold but I don't think he's raising turn without some kind of made hand.

Folds to hero in MP
Hero (MP2) 10s 10c raises to $20
Villain (Button) calls
SB/BB call

$75
Flop: Td 9c 7c
Checks to hero, hero bets $65, villain calls $65, blinds fold

$205
Turn: Td 9c 7c Ks
Hero bets $140, villain raises to $280, hero?

It's a pretty sick spot. I think this guy NEVER slowplays this flop with 99 or 77 or 97 or w/e. I don't think he slowplays j8 or 86 either. So when he calls flop he either has a pair or some kind of draw.

QJ just got there. I don't even know if he raises Kxcc because I bet pot and then like almost 3/4 pot and he might just call and see what happens.

He could have turned KT, but I block it so there's only 1 combo of KTs and many fewer combos of KTo while all combos of QJ are there. I don't know if he calls K9 or K7 on the flop facing that bet and 2 players left to act.

I probably want to add in a spazz factor just b/c fish will always spazz some % of the time with I dunno some bizarre slowplayed 97 or something.

Is this a sick spot where I could call and then check/fold the river if I brick? He only has about $300 left, so if I call the pot is like $700 and I can't bet/fold. Or do I just shove back turn? If I'm not folding the river I think I should just shove now because he's never folding, but he could fold if a scare card hits the river.

It's just such a weird spot where he min raises a super wet board with not much behind - not sure what he reps with this.

Comments

  • EDUB Posts: 29Subscriber
    Pretty sick spot, he can't even have KTcc or ATcc because we have the Tc. From your read, it sounds like he is only repping QJ, he would raise everything else. I guess he could have QJcc would he flat the flop with that? If it's only QJ, I suppose I just call and see the river, I don't think he is folding to a raise.

    If we think he never has a flush draw here like even AKcc, then flatting turn makes the most sense. We don't have to worry about him freerolling us where we would call off the river it it hits but he is never putting more money in the pot unless he gets there.

    You said there may be a scare card on the river that kills the action. If he has qj, only a club would scare him, right? if the board pairs, we assume he stills calls right? Could we rep the flush and turn our hand into a bluff if the club hits? It's going to be a $300 call into a $1,000 if we jam river, would he fold? It's tough with the stacks getting so short.
  • BartBart Posts: 6,078AdministratorLeadPro
    This really looks like QJ to me. I would call as you are getting good implied odds--$140 to win $925. Easily enough to draw to a boat.

    On the river I am most likely check folding to an all-in. There just isnt any hand that this guy can have. Against a player that is actually capable of folding and with deeper stacks this is a rare spot where you could actually turn your set into a bluff if the clubs come in--something a lot more common in PLO that in NLHE.

    Bart
  • Agree with Bart on all fronts.
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    Thanks for the comments.

    I actually just called the turn and the river was the 3c. I checked and he agonizingly checked back and showed QJ. At the table I like to think I could have made a river fold had it got to that.

    I saved money, but it got me thinking if I'm just being too nitty and got lucky this time. Normally I assign a spazz factor to random fish. Just thought with the board the way it is I could rule out a lot of hands I beat.

    I really thought about shoving the river, but I thought at that point we just weren't deep enough. He said he would have called if I shoved. Unless we were really deep I don't think I like a donk shove on the river because I think he just levels himself into call.
  • LucasE Posts: 167Member
    PokerIsFrustrating said

    Thanks for the comments.

    I actually just called the turn and the river was the 3c. I checked and he agonizingly checked back and showed QJ. At the table I like to think I could have made a river fold had it got to that.

    I saved money, but it got me thinking if I'm just being too nitty and got lucky this time. Normally I assign a spazz factor to random fish. Just thought with the board the way it is I could rule out a lot of hands I beat.

    I really thought about shoving the river, but I thought at that point we just weren't deep enough. He said he would have called if I shoved. Unless we were really deep I don't think I like a donk shove on the river because I think he just levels himself into call.
    I think you can usually assign some amount of spazz factor to a random player, but I'd hesitate to use it as justification to make any particular play. I like the call on the turn and I like the idea of shoving the river, but only as a bluff to represent clubs. In this case, I'd never do it because we're so short stacked compared to the pot and I would never expect a random player to lay down two pair or better against a draw that came in. It's good to have this in your arsenal but it's really villain & situation dependent.

    Also, it's interesting that you noted villain agonized and then checked back QJ. That should tell us a good bit about him. He's unlikely to be making turn/river bets when draws come in. He's hesitant to pull the trigger so he's really unlikely to run a big bluff. He's going to be missing value bets so we can narrow his range whenever he does bet. He also sees obvious draws and is scared of them - this can be used to our advantage as well.
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