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Betting the best hand OTR vs weak range

CajunDragonCajunDragon Posts: 173Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1-2 Local Vegas Game, we have 200BB effective stack vs the MP raiser and SB is a shawty with 40BB.

MP opponent: 25 Year old good competent winning reg. He's very good at hand reading and is the only person at the table who's game I respect.
SB: Tourist, idiot, calling station

# Young aggro kid raises $10 in MP/ 3 calls. Hero calls w/ AdKh HJ
# ($50) Flop Ks3s8h - SB checks/pfr bets 35/f/f/*c/c
# ($155) 3 players - Turn 5d - k/b80/*c/*c (SB is all IN)..side pot now active
# ($390) River 2c - Villain checks

MP opponent: 25 Year old good competent winning reg. He's very good at hand reading and is the only person at the table who's game I respect.
SB: Tourist, idiot, calling station

Q: What is our river value bet size here? 1/2 pot? ... Or perhaps bet small to induce some sort of spazz raise?

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Cajun

    In theory you are probably not getting called with a ss already all in with anything other than a king. Also you said that villain is the only player at the table you respect.. Given this I think you need to bet pretty small to get called...

    I always have a question for players in the 1/2.. Can this kid really be that good? If he is that good how come he is only playing 1/2? This is not to offend anyone who plays 1/2 regularly but with the rake issues how can someone really make a living at 1/2?

    Preflop.. in position against a player who is later position I am probably three betting with AK ..

    ww
  • LucasE Posts: 167Member
    Some thoughts, in no particular order.

    1. Don't think of or describe people as 'idiot'. It's not good for your mental toughness and doesn't serve as a useful poker read. We don't know if this guy is an idiot - he might be an accomplished doctor or lawyer or whatever but just bad at poker. If he's a bad poker player, describe him as such and be specific with reads, it will help you get better at analyzing players.

    2. I definitely like a 3bet preflop with all the dead money in the pot as a value bet.

    3. Do we like raising at any point for value on either the flop or turn? Or did you have a specific plan when you were calling, such as getting other people to call along?

    4. Villain's range is getting really defined at this point to a Kx type of hand. He raised PF the double barreled into multiple opponents - this is going to be a value hand all day. When he checks river, he may be pot controlling or he may have identified you as a good player and decided to bluff catch. I think it's really unlikely he holds any 3x and I think it's unlikely he would try to get trappy on the river with a monster like a full house (KK,88). I think you're either chopping or good here every time. The question is, do we try to get villain off a chop when he has AK or target all his other Kx hands (KQ,KJ, maybe KT) for value. I think villain is never c/f'ing AK on the river so let's go for value. Villain's bets have been pretty small all the way - the pot is only bloated because it was multiway. So I'm thinking we need to find an amount that he'll call with a worse Kx hand, maybe in the range of 120-160. I don't think we should go for a bet and try to get this guy to spazz, we have no reads that he's likely to do so and I don't think it's our most +EV line.
  • BartBart Posts: 6,080AdministratorLeadPro
    First of all Geoff should be praised for his help with the site over the last few weeks. The front page and functionality has been running at about 15x faster. And we are moving towards even better optimization.


    With that being said,

    1. Move up you nit

    2. This:
    Thehammah said

    I always have a question for players in the 1/2.. Can this kid really be that good? If he is that good how come he is only playing 1/2? This is not to offend anyone who plays 1/2 regularly but with the rake issues how can someone really make a living at 1/2?


    ww
    3. Against the typical, good players that I play against at $5-10 and up, I don't see a hand that they ever have here as a check call on the river. I mean, think of it, would they bet bet KQ and then check to check call at the end? Seems silly. You would have to be betting into a completely dry side pot to be bluffing--and you most likely are not going to beat the Sb all-in with no pair. For those reasons at $5-10 or $10-20 vs a good reg, I actually may check here as crazy as it seems, even if I am good like 95% of the time. However, this is $1-$2 and I just can't given anyone credit for being that good of a player. I think you have to value bet here as this kid could just have gotten scared of the size of the pot with one pair. Go $125-$150. Anything more, with your nitty image, would be difficult to call.

    Bart
  • CajunDragonCajunDragon Posts: 173Member
    Results
    This was a hand my roommate Craig played and he is too cheap to get a SOP account so I'm posting it. We had a long discussion about it last night because I feel like he bet too much. He bet $170 and the kid snap folded KQ. He was saying something about not wanting to bet less on the river then was wagered on the turn. I don't really agree with that logic if we are putting the guy on a missed flush or really weak one pair hand. I'd rather bet $50-$80 and get that extra value from a crying call. There is no incremental rule that says you must make a larger bet size then the previous streets bet. I think he calls $50 with worse %90 of the time for a net of +$45 and $170 with worse 10% of the time for +$17 Ed Miller was mentioning optimal river bet sizes this in part 1 of his interview. I think he said there were cases he'd bet 1/8th pot if thats what was necessary to get called by worse.

    Ya if we were OOP and he'd shown weakness on the turn perhaps we could of put a block bet out there. This guy is definitely capable of raising it as a bluff.

    Low Rollers
    Typically when someone comes up to me and proclaims a good 1-2 grinder was in their game I insta-roll my eyes mentally. However, I know various 1-2 / 1-3 players out here who are making $30/hr. One of my friends is a female player out here who's just amazing at poker. She blows my mind every time we talk strategy. She is a 1-3 Aria reg. Uh oh. I've said too much. She's gonna yell at me for outing her. I should get her to post in the strategy discussion forums. When you can buy in for $500 at a 1-3 game and play with drunk tourists just hanging to have fun, sometimes it can be less stressful then sitting in a 2-5 for $2000 with serious grinders.

    Of course in LA you can't play 1-2 or 1-3 for a living because of A) Cap B) Rake C) Cost of living. When I'm in LA I will only play $5 blind games.
    My roommate also plays 1-2 for a living at PH.He has no other income and he's paying his share of the rent. He was on LATB once with me.

    BTW There is a whole new podcast called \/egas Grinders about guys living the thug low stakes life.

    Bart
    How could you of thought I'd played this hand last night? I was working on your server for 7 hrs last night. ;) Ty for the praise on the site BTW. I'm going to treat myself to some fried Oreos on Freemont!

    When I was discussing the hand with Craig, my instinct was to throw $70 out there. That was before he told me the results or what he did. I know your a proponent of going slightly big but this was a mulit way put and the guys range was capped pretty weak OTR.

    Geoff
    Thehammah said

    In theory you are probably not getting called with a ss already all in with anything other than a king. Also you said that villain is the only player at the table you respect.. Given this I think you need to bet pretty small to get called...

    I always have a question for players in the 1/2.. Can this kid really be that good? If he is that good how come he is only playing 1/2? This is not to offend anyone who plays 1/2 regularly but with the rake issues how can someone really make a living at 1/2?

    Preflop.. in position against a player who is later position I am probably three betting with AK ..

    ww
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Disappointed to see results already posted as that typically sways responses.

    Before reading the results, I was going to suggest betting $110 on the river. The pot is inflated due to an all in shorty, and we have to bet small to get called by a worse 1 pair hand. But in smaller games, players aren't typically considering the size of the pot as they decide what to do on the river. They are looking at the absolute dollar amount of the value of their hand as compared with the bet they face. I think $110 is tempting enough for KQ / KJ to call.

    Btw- sorry if I'm running on a bit. Getting drunk in the Denver airport now as we had to make an unscheduled landing on the way here cuz a window in the cockpit cracked. Waiting for the last flight home tonight.
  • CajunDragonCajunDragon Posts: 173Member
    LucasE said
    Some thoughts, in no particular order.
    1. Don't think of or describe people as 'idiot'.
    They will hereby be known as fishcakes!
  • LucasE Posts: 167Member
    CajunDragon said
    LucasE said
    Some thoughts, in no particular order.
    1. Don't think of or describe people as 'idiot'.
    They will hereby be known as fishcakes!
    Whatever works, as long as it improves your friend's mental toughness. Although, you may have offended the SOP subscriber 'fishcakes'!

    Also - great work on the site!
  • CajunDragonCajunDragon Posts: 173Member
    Donations are accepted ;)
    LucasE said
    Also - great work on the site!
  • CruelUltimatum Posts: 160Subscriber
    CajunDragon said

    Low Rollers
    Typically when someone comes up to me and proclaims a good 1-2 grinder was in their game I insta-roll my eyes mentally. However, I know various 1-2 / 1-3 players out here who are making $30/hr.
    Not that I don't believe you, buuuuut

    I don't believe you. =-)

    10-155bb/hr with the rake being such a high percentage of the pot? I don't buy it. I don't buy it even a little. Everyone exaggerates their winrates. Marginal losing players say they're winners, marginal winning players say they're big winners, and people living in fantasy candy Magical Christmas Happy Unicorn Fuzzy Bunny Land say they're making 10-155bb an hour playing 1-2/1-3.

    Well, either that or they're on a heater and they're quoting their winrate over some small sample.

    Not to sound harsh, but I think these kinds of falsehoods (and I do think they are falsehoods - the rake alone makes that quote pretty ludicrous) are damaging indirectly to the poker community. A while back I decided to take the plunge as a full-time player, and I did a *ton* of research, talking to people about their winrates, talking to live grinders, even people showing me their graphs if they felt comfortable, so I could get some idea of:

    * General live winrates
    * The variance/swings involved
    * Bankroll management
    * Life management (stress management, etc.)

    And so on. And I gotta tell you, if I got on a forum and see someone saying "oh yeah, no, I totally make $30 an hour playing 1/2," if I wasn't in full-on skeptical face mode, I might buy it, and think that number is realistic and might be more inclined to make a poorly-informed decision.

    Your instinct to roll your eyes mentally seems correct.
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