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Flop action with the nuts + redraw

chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
live 5/5
villain is unknown to me before tonight. he is a 55ish gentleman of likely persian decent, but has played pretty tight and hasn't played any big pots since i have joined this main game (about 2 hours prior) in a 3 game must move chain. he is dressed nicely in business attire and i believe i heard some chatter earlier asking villain if he was going to play the 10/25nl game tonight (implying that he had played it in the past).

hero is about even for the night but has a winning image at this table. haven't played any big pots or significant showdowns, but have won several small - medium pots in the past two hours. i did showdown TT that i 3bet pre in a straddled pot and got it in pre vs a short stack (AK) and held.


preflop ($10)
1 limp, solid pro raises in MP to $20, hero ($1800) calls in CO with 7 8, villain ($1200) calls in BB, limper calls.

flop ($80)
5 6 9
checks to hero who bets $45, villain check/raises to $200, others fold. hero?
[min raise click? standard raise? call and then raise the turn? call/call/raise?]
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Comments

  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    He has a ton of super value here, like set, 78, 2p. I don't think this is the kind of player who has come to the casino to ever fold any of those. There are a ton of action killing cards that can peel on the turn so I raise big here. We have no blockers to the set/2p either which is obviously good. I would go probably around 700-800 and stick the rest in on the turn. I don't even think it's a bad idea to ship it if that potentially looks more draw heavy in his eyes.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    I agree. Vs this villain just go for gold and ship it he's likely got a set or 2 pair and will snap call.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    So you guys are saying raise to $1200 on the flop ? You don't think that gets a snap fold from hands like TT, QJss, and possibly bottom 2 pair ?
  • BartBart Posts: 6,021AdministratorLeadPro
    I would just go $500. Too many cards that this guy doesn't lead on turn. I call this spot Jakegold..
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    even though I dont think he is folding I think if you raise say bigger than $500 or $600 you just get him to fold.

    by 1Bart
  • JimHamring Posts: 339Subscriber
    chilidog said:
    So you guys are saying raise to $1200 on the flop ? You don't think that gets a snap fold from hands like TT, QJss, and possibly bottom 2 pair ?
    He's in the BB with this pf action and the player you describe, so his range is so wide pre here and I think TT/JJ is such a small part of his range. Even if he folds them 100% now(which may not even be true), I think we miss value from 56,69,95 and possibly even sets every time a spade or a one liner to the straight comes in. I think that is a bigger problem and I still go 700-800 here. QJss is kind of w/e against our exact hand if he folds that, and there aren't very many combos. If we go 500 and hit the flush, as long as we plan on stacking off when that happens we actually want him to rather fold that specific hand then him calling another 300.

    Iet me put it this way, I would never bomb it with a draw here against this guy and this action, just because he looks so strong and almost never folds. For that exact reason I just go for gold with my super value. I doubt he ever folds button two here to be honest after reading your description. But yeah, if he does fold those, by all means make it smaller and jam combo draws...

    Also I think TT/JJ is further reduced because I don't think the sizing is very indicative of that. If he went like 140 it's a different story. I just think he's nutted here very often and doesn't go anywhere...
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Bart said:
    I would just go $500. Too many cards that this guy doesn't lead on turn. I call this spot Jakegold..
    Jakegold? Did I patent a poker play that I'm not even aware of ?

  • carru036 Posts: 173Subscriber
    I think the standard play would be to 3bet to $550. This sizing allows you to shove most turns with a reasonably sized bet relative to the size of the pot (roughly 650 into 1100). There are just so many action killers that might cause him to fold hands you dominate so I like playing this hand fast.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    One of the reasons I posted this hand was that I got unsolicited advice from a solid pro who I respect (the initial pfr) that was completely different than the line I chose.
  • sxz18 Posts: 345Member
    chilidog said:
    One of the reasons I posted this hand was that I got unsolicited advice from a solid pro who I respect (the initial pfr) that was completely different than the line I chose.
    Not sure what advice you got but I don't see an issue with calling here. You're in position and while there are cards that may freeze villain on the turn, there are more cards that won't, so you have a lot of "outs" so to speak.

    If we break down villain's range into 3 buckets: 2p, set, and better fd, we find that our equity is good against all three but definitely not a lock. I don't know your style but I think it's typically very difficult to get your opponent to stack here with 2p by putting in a 3rd bet in position on the flop. That leaves sets and better fd which will continue if you put in a 3rd bet.

    By calling, you are basically merging your entire range together minus pure bluffs. This creates confidence for villain that he may have the best hand whether it be 2p or set. It also creates room for him to fire off with a fd. All sets will stack themselves on blank turns/rivers.

    Another way of looking at this problem is how range vs range plays over 2 streets. You have the nuts with a redraw but the redraw is actually very useless other than that it takes away 2 outs from a higher fd. Let's look at each scenario over 2 streets:
    1) Villain has 2p
    a. You put in a 3rd bet, villain folds
    b. You call, villain fires turn
    2) Villain has fd
    a. You put in a 3rd bet, depending on villain, he could possibly fold, call, or ship here
    b. You call, villain feels the need to continue firing turn
    3) Villain has set
    a. You put in a 3rd bet, villain calls or ships
    b. You call, villain value owns himself on turn

    In these scenarios, the only time putting in a 3rd bet makes sense is 2a (not that 2b is -EV). The rest of the scenarios you can accomplish the following by calling the flop:
    1) Villain value owns himself, thinking he has the best hand and needs to protect it against your draw
    2) Utilize your position to evaluate turns and rivers

    I actually really appreciate what comes with #2 because not all card rooms allow you to run it twice. You are a good enough player to deduce bad turn cards and "save money" so to speak if your opponent does have a set and fills up for example.

    Meant for a short response but turned into an essay :lol:
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    edited March 2016
    Sorry ---- the advice I got from the pro was to flat call the raise. He didn't expand on his thought tho, since we were at the table.

    My thinking at the time was that this guy has played pretty tight from what I've seen and therefore I think he has a really strong range here (2pr, set, straight, nfd maybe). I didn't think any of those hands would fold to a 3bet on the flop. Also, I had a little bit of Bart's aggressive action theorem floating around up there, and I wanted to make sure all the chips got in the middle.

    So I raised to $590 and he tank/folded ! I was shocked.

    Thx for the response sxz
  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    Grunch:

    Villain's flop check/raise is rather large and seems to be an "I want to protect" kind of raise for value. Of course, sets are in his range, as is 65 and TT-QQ. A small portion of the time this is suited broadways that think they've flopped huge. However, given our reads pre, a portion of the time these types of hands will just flat the flop.

    I'm assuming he does't want to fold at this point, so I would like to accommodate the Persian gentleman to my left. Stacks are somewhat awkward for a shove, and bet/3-betting here looks awful strong. Then again, the BB check/raising into the world is super strong as well. If we had a losing image or it seems like we may be tilting/steaming, I'd stuff it here. However, we have a winning image so I think jamming here is going to fold out TT-QQ. I want to keep that part of his range in, so I vote for a 3-bet to $465. That will make the pot $1010 and he'll have about $800 left that sets up a turn shove.
  • sxz18 Posts: 345Member
    Yeah this is a kind of board where it's just incredibly difficult to get everything in on one street so you need to plan for multiple streets of value. Also having a call button in this scenario makes you much more difficult to play against.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    hmm. what was he raising with? maybe he had a small overpair. finding out where he was at. if I thought that this guy was capable of folding then flatting might be an option. depends really on what his cr raising range is. it should be a strong hand or a very strong draw. but in this case I guess its just one pair. or a bluff


    I have seen better players raise this type of hand then fold to any more heat. but he would have to think you are not that good a player
  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    sxz18 said:
    Yeah this is a kind of board where it's just incredibly difficult to get everything in on one street so you need to plan for multiple streets of value. Also having a call button in this scenario makes you much more difficult to play against.
    I dunno, calling seems like we're inviting an action killer. 25 cards make a flush/straight or will outpip TT-QQ. So it's practically even money we have the villain slow down on the turn. If we have better reads/more history versus the villain, the more I lean towards calling. But against an unknown who's shown aggression (yay aggressive action theorem!), I'd rather 3-bet smallish here.

    Just sucks we ran into the absolute bottom of this guy's range.
  • sxz18 Posts: 345Member
    Not sure how you arrived at 25 cards and I don't think any card ten or higher is a scare card for villain.

    9 spades left, assuming nobody else had one, 3 7's and 3 8's, giving us a total of 15 scare cards for villain. This is also assuming villain himself does not have a fd.
  • sxz18 Posts: 345Member
    I don't understand the logic of "if villain has a strong hand, we should put in a 3rd bet". In any scenario where villain is stacking on the flop, he is stacking on the turn unless a scare card comes. Since there are less scare cards than safe cards, calling is fine with me. We also can't discount the fact that calling makes us very difficult to value bet against in future hands. Lastly, I assume we have a post flop edge so I also don't buy the "we need to protect our hand against a set" logic.
  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    sxz18 said:
    Not sure how you arrived at 25 cards and I don't think any card ten or higher is a scare card for villain.

    9 spades left, assuming nobody else had one, 3 7's and 3 8's, giving us a total of 15 scare cards for villain. This is also assuming villain himself does not have a fd.
    I'm counting aces and kings which are 8. They shouldn't be a scare card, but for a lot of rec players, they will be if they hold TT-QQ. So 24, not 25. My bad, but my point stands.
  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    sxz18 said:
    I don't understand the logic of "if villain has a strong hand, we should put in a 3rd bet". In any scenario where villain is stacking on the flop, he is stacking on the turn unless a scare card comes. Since there are less scare cards than safe cards, calling is fine with me. We also can't discount the fact that calling makes us very difficult to value bet against in future hands. Lastly, I assume we have a post flop edge so I also don't buy the "we need to protect our hand against a set" logic.
    We're not protecting against a set, we are raising to get value before any scare cards fall and kill our action.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    edited March 2016
    In general I have absolutely no problem playing hands slower and seeing the river if I think that will net me the most money when I can value bet appropriately/ or fold if it is merited.

    In this hand , I must have misread the villain's hand strength. I thought a large majority of his range was hands that don't ever fold, and therefore I wanted to assist him in getting more money in the middle. Near as I can tell, he must have had TT or 56s (though I still don't think this villain is likely to fold 2 pair). :(

    So yes, I was raising to get value from his strong holdings, not to protect my hand.

    There is one case though that I do want to get all the money in now: if he also holds 78. I don't want to give him a chance to ever fold since Obv my scoop equity is highest on the flop.
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