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$10-$25 Reno river play

BartBart Posts: 5,725AdministratorLeadPro
Villian in the hand is a recreational mid to late 30s, local. Looks like he is half Asian half white. He seems to call way to much to 3 bets and opens far to wide to defend them all. I haven't seen him run any types of big bluffs or anything in the past day.

5PM. $4700 effective.

Hero has neutral image. Villain opens to $75 UTG, standard open sizing. Folded to Hero in BB w Q Q . I 3 bet to $275, V1 calls quickly.

FLOP: J T 9

Hero checks!! V1 bets $450, hero calls.


TURN: 2

Hero checks. V1 takes a long time and checks back.

RIVER: T

Hero?


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Comments

  • Edge Posts: 54Subscriber
    I think I'm betting 400-500 on the river to get looked up by KJ, QJ, or AJ.
    I'm folding to a raise.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    I'd bet like 800-900. Interested to hear your thoughts on flop check. Not sure I love it if your plan is just to c/c.
  • Dab44 Posts: 408Subscriber
    edited April 2016
    Come on Bart, your the thinnest value bettor ever! Ha easy value bet....700 sounds nice.
    BTW I like the flop check.. You don't wana get blown off your equity plus u disguise your hand strength and can get value later, which is smart bc your not getting 3 streets from worse.. The check also allows you to realize your equity better
  • ridethevariance Posts: 42Subscriber
    Are check call and check raise options here? Does he have a propensity to bet his pair? u mostly rep a AK with one spade or a PP that got dominated. no?
  • AnarchyDevil Posts: 16Subscriber
    based on your reads and him taking too long to check turn, it seems he hit the flop with more than one pair. check river and hope it goes check, if he bets he boated up. i don't think an amateur will turn J9 into a bluff or continue to try to value bet that.
  • maphacks Posts: 1,985Subscriber
    edited April 2016
    bet against AJ,KJ,QJ,A9,K9,98s,97s. don't think he has a lot of fullhouses or flushes. Tx,87s or KQ is possible but unless you have a read he could be slowplaying rather strong holdings, I think check/folding is too weak.

    pot is ~1500 so I would bet small, like 600-800 to make sure any Jx and some 9x are calling. if he likes to call to 3bets pre I think he likely a station post as well
  • BartBart Posts: 5,725AdministratorLeadPro
    I agree with most here that river is a bet. However, Hero checks. V1 insta bets $1k? What do we think about a range here?
  • PocketAceTrader782 Posts: 439Subscriber
    Looks like he might have a Jack here. I would get around 850 or so and fold to a raise.

    carmine
  • dannydeuces Posts: 235Member
    Bart said:
    I agree with most here that river is a bet. However, Hero checks. V1 insta bets $1k? What do we think about a range here?
    Does this become an almost automatic check-call now given the flop check and now river check? You have underrepped your hand.

  • Edge Posts: 54Subscriber
    Bart said:
    I agree with most here that river is a bet. However, Hero checks. V1 insta bets $1k? What do we think about a range here?

    As played it seems as the villain could have 99 JJ J10 89. I'm folding if I check the river and then he bets.
  • maphacks Posts: 1,985Subscriber
    I don't think villain bets Jx with that sizing. MAYBE AJ but most likely this seems like a bluff or a rather strong hand like trips or better. I would call since your hand looks somewhat weak and a lot of recs will put you on AK,AQ and blindly bet.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    edited April 2016
    Bart said:
    I agree with most here that river is a bet. However, Hero checks. V1 insta bets $1k? What do we think about a range here?
    We do block a decent about of value, flushes, KQ, QT, but his line just feels pretty value heavy to me. Idk its close. Think this is pretty near the top of our range so GTO wise we should probably call given the blockers and everything but I don't love it given our reads on the player. I could justify going either way based on live reads/table dynamic.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,287Subscriber
    I don't play 10/25 so I don't know the players dynamics. So I am taking what I know.

    #1 he calls 3bs light. I would usually think with paint.
    #2 he bet large on the flop. That seems like someone trying to protect a hand. His only real FD is AsKs since we hold Qs.
    #3 turn is the typical "fuck me" attitude that the flush came in and he can't think beyond level 1. Reason? He took forever to think about it. If he had the nut flush and wanted to play tricky he would insta-check it realizing his hand strength. But even given this I don't think he would because of the board. He would fear a JJ or TT set. Which of course doesn't make sense because Bart would have bet those on the flop.
    #4 river pairs and he insta bombs it. Due to his bet large bet sizing on the flop, frustration on the turn, and insta-bomb on the river I would say he has a boat and give it to him. In my games this is what this means IMO.

    Now about the river. If he hasn't made a big bluff and he calls 3bs light I would rather bet this river as a value/blocker bet. Something he will call with a J. But you have to do the combo work. And does he play tricky with AA/KK. I think when he bombs this river it isn't a single pair hand. It is the strong hand or a bluff. By betting something you get him to play face up.

    AJ, KJ, QJ (30)
    AA, KK, AT, JJ, TT, 99, KQ, JTs, T9s (46)

    Hmmm. Actually looking at the combos I do think a XF is correct. Even if he doesn't play AA/KK tricky there is no reason to bet this river as you don't beat 50% of his range and it is unlikely he will fold it. Even if he folds AA/KK he still has more combos that beat you in his range than ones that don't.

    Really close here. You would have to add some other hands in this to weight in a value/blocker bet on the river.
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    This hand reminds me of an old @samoleous pod, checking the river for value to check call a thin vbet from worse.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    Bart said:
    I agree with most here that river is a bet. However, Hero checks. V1 insta bets $1k? What do we think about a range here?
    hmm.. villain bet pretty big on the flop.. 450 into about 550.. You have of course two blockers to the straight.. and you have the Q which takes out one of his combo draws to bet.. In fact you having the Q is he cant have the obvious oesfd with KQ ss.. to me that certainly means he probably has a made hand here..

    him checking the turn either means he has a really big hand..like the nut flush and is trapping.. And he can have A K or he is now afraid of the flush..

    then he bombs the river? Again this could be I guess a missed draw IF he thought that you were weak.. or now he isnt afraid of the flush anymore..

    since you block one of the big draws I would have to assume he is much more made hand heavy.. I dunno bart ..you seem to have a spidey sense when someone is bluffing.. I just not sure he would be overplaying a hand here..

    Had you bet and I would have bet relatively small since his range is mainly pairs of jacks.. If he raised then you would be able to fold pretty easily. Now you are guessing..

    ww

  • fishcake Posts: 917Subscriber
    This seems like a super standard check on the river unless villain is atrocious enough to call you with a jack. I think the whole hand is actually very standard.....I'd consider folding the river to a big bet.
  • AnarchyDevil Posts: 16Subscriber
    Bart said:
    I agree with most here that river is a bet. However, Hero checks. V1 insta bets $1k? What do we think about a range here?
    how did he bet the 1k, just fists it and it happened to be 1k or 1k chip that he tossed in the pot or he already had a 1k stack ready?

  • ridethevariance Posts: 42Subscriber
    edited April 2016
    Dont think betting is better than checking and probably check-fold to a big bet. But can call upto slightly higher than half pot sized bet
  • aaron Posts: 498Subscriber
    Description of villian doesn't seem like he's going to bet thin or turn a made hand into a bluff. As far as draws that missed he basically has AQ (8 combos), A8s (3), 88 (6). Let's give him 50% bluffs or 8 combos. Now for value he has 99-JJ (7), JT/9Ts (4), 1 flush (conservative) for 12 combos. Based on this you're good 8/20 or 40%. You need 30% to break even. If he has 9To/JTo youre only good 8/28 or around 28% making this -ev. If villian bluffs w 33-77 this is a call.

    Pretty close spot that hinges on what % he bluffs flop with and follows up w river stab. Pretty in the moment read dependent spot. If 50% is too high a bluff frequency I think it's a fold. If he bluffs his Qx/8x 50% it's a call
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    Given Villain's description, this is a fold. It should have been a small b/f (but it's a fold now) as you don't beat anything but bluffs.
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