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Difficult spot with bottom end of a straight

Folds2much Posts: 2Member
edited April 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
This is my first post but I have been a long time reader and before I dive into my hand I just want to say thank you to the forum in general and the regular posters for helping me dramatically improve my game. I keep up with the forum daily and look forward to all the new threads.

The following hand is from a 1-2 weekly home game. I have played in this game for 12+ years and the villain in the hand has been in the game for approximately 5 years so needless to say we have plenty of history with each other. Hero is a solid TAG and long term winner. The game is a mix of LAGs, TAGs and loose passives with the LAGs and TAGs crushing the fish over the long haul as they mostly put too much money into the pot with a wide range and then fold when pressure is applied. The main villain in the hand is a strange hybrid player as he actually plays fewer hands than I do, but when he does get to show down he can have very weird hands. When strategy comes up at the table he talks about playing the same hand in different ways for deception. I can only assume, despite the significant history, that he looks for spots against the fish, and mostly avoids the longer term winners which is why the correlation between his hand strength and the number of hands he actually plays is non-existent. Villain had been a longer term loser in the game but over the past 18 months he has made aggression adjustments and now solidly beats the game.

Villain in BB $500. Hero covers on the button.

Fish opens to $15 UTG. 4 callers. Hero calls on the button with 5h6h. Villain calls in the BB. This is definitely a bit speculative for me but with position and my image I may find some board textures and spots where I can steal a pot that doesn't belong to me. My long term image allows me to make this move.

Flop: 9s8s7d (pot: $105)

Villain donks for $75. Folds to hero who raises to $275. Villain tanks until clock is called by a player not in the hand. Perhaps 3-4 minutes. Villain calls.

During villains time in the tank, I considered my actions during the rest of the hand under various scenarios and what villains range would be under different circumstances. I mostly expect villain to shove or fold given the SPR and the board texture so despite having some time, the call caught me off guard. I feel like he never has a set here or a combination draw as he likely just gets the money in at this decision point. I also feel like he folds 2p pretty comfortably here, given my image and showdown history as one of the tighter players at the table. I really feel like his range is made up entirely of flush draws. I do not think he has many hands at all that he takes this line with given his aforementioned transition to more aggression.

Turn: 4s (pot: $655).

Villain insta-shoves.

Hero? Basically 4:1 with a bluff catcher. If I am wrong I am drawing dead. Do we like a fold or call here? Thanks for your help in advance.
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Comments

  • BartBart Posts: 5,820AdministratorLeadPro
    edited April 2016
    This is going to be a live read type of thing. The only bluffs that he has is a hand that is T +pair. I ran Poker cruncher with 5 combos of made flushes and the three combos of T 9× and I got Hero with 25% equity (4-1 is 20% needed). 8 flushes is Hero 18%. Obv this will change to higher equity if you include T8 and lower if there are more flushes. I think its really close getting 4-1. I don't think you are giving up a whole lot by making either decision so if you can talk to the guy, think of gameflow, whether he is up or down and draw on your experience of his play that will lead you to the best decision.

    Thanks for posting on the site. Hope you will consider subscribing.

    Bart
  • Folds2much Posts: 2Member
    Thanks for the thoughts. I wound up folding since I just couldn't come up with many hands that get to the turn in this fashion that are not made flushes. I wish I had held a set as I would have liked to look him up and I am pretty sure I would have called. A few of my poker buddies suggested that given his recent history of aggressively playing hands that they may have found a call even with my exact hand but it looks like it is one of those spots that can go either way.
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