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5/5 Should we be calling this turn

MarcusMarcus Posts: 104Subscriber
edited April 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$800 effective with villain
Action table
Villain is a rec player
Hero has a slightly loose image

Two players limp in in front of me and I over limp with JTos in the hj. (CO and button haven't been very aggressive with their late position). The SB position had bought the button so there is only one blind and he makes it 30. The two players in front call, I call and both players behind me fold.

~$130 flop : AT7 rainbow
PFR makes it 70$, the two players in front fold, I call
I am thinking that any card between an 8 and a K will give me equity in the turn. And there might be a chance that the villain gives up without an A.

~$270 turn is 9
Villain bombs 200$ on the turn.

Can I call this with implied odds for the river ?? I think this particular opponent will pay off if I improve my hand. I don't think he has AJ or AA with the given action.
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Comments

  • Acehole Posts: 99Subscriber
    edited April 2016
    It seems to me like your 10 is no good why cant he have a big A he raised pre and has lead out twice. If you do hit an 8 its scary and has a high probability of not paying off because of the 4 card straight and he could already have AJ, A 10 or 10 10

    That's why suited is so much better because with any type of FD or backdoor FD you can call or play to get stacks in now and maybe get AJ or AQ to fold.

    As played I lean towards folding getting 2:1. You could have less than 20% equity and you would need to be sure you get the last 500 to show a profit.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,821AdministratorLeadPro
    I don't like your flop peel one bit. I mean what do you think he has here? Getting 3-1 isnt enough for a 5 out draw that may not even be pure.

    On the turn this is an easy fold. I mean if he has AK you have 9 outs yes, but your gutter and two pair outs both put one liners to straights and there isn't a flush draw that you could have missed. Its going to be really difficult to get value from a one pair hand if you make it.

    I would like this a whole lot more if there WAS a front door flush draw so that you could both represent it as a bluff if it came in AND you would get paid off with your jacks up and gutter outs, with villain heroing, thinking you missed the FD.

    Bart
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