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Unsure about river bc confused by the turn

TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 295Subscriber
edited April 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
5-10 NL, $1400 eff. V solid young pro but has been drinking and announced he's intoxicated FWIW, he has about $4K in front, but claims to be stuck about that amount. My image is tight/winning.

Four limps up front, I limp in CO with 77 bc BB has been super squeeze happy, but he declines, and we go seven ways to flop

Flop 6s7hTc

Action checks to me, I bet 40, only V calls two from my right.

Turn Qs, now V checks again. I bet $80, he thinks for a bit and raises to $210. I think for a bit as well and decide to call and keep his Semi-bluffs in, though I'm unsure what he could conceivably be floating with.

River Kd, now V leads $590. I think for a bit and narrow his range down:

1) Weirdly played 89 where he decided to check raise turn on a card that gets check/checked a lot.

2) Some sort of QT or maybe a 66 that he's betting for value (would not limp TT)

3) Maybe KJss that he floated to try and outplay another young-looking guy at the table.


Thoughts on your river decision?
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Comments

  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    So Villain limped from EP? You could then surmise that he doesn't have any higher sets and most likely few broadway cards (except QTs.) You could also rule out lower sets and a flopped straight seems unlikely (considering his actions thus far.) I would say his hand mostly looks like BD type holdings like J 9 (maybe even J8s or 85s.)

    Big river bet does scare me but he has air here a lot (as he's drunk and losing)
  • Fred Posts: 137Subscriber
    Turn check raise looks supper strong, on the flop no flush draw so he can afford to slow play as soon as the 2nd spade comes it looks like he's betting for value and on the river it's a huge bet. 9js or 89 it may well be a fold. Has he shown any big bluffs that night? If so it makes me lean to a call. If not then it's a tough one.
  • squishmytomatosquishmytomato Posts: 351SubscriberProfessional
    I think this is 89 or j9ss a ton.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    edited April 2016
    call. you bet small OTT. okay spot to bluff raise like 67s,A8s,78s maybe some Txs. when you just call the turn it's not very likely you have a straight so he could be even be bombing 66 OTR
  • fishcake Posts: 954Subscriber
    Call.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Bigger OTF.

    Bigger OTT. I think 3 betting small OTT is much better here.

    Call.

  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 295Subscriber
    I'm reviewing my turn sizing, thanks for the comments. Thought betting just over half pot would bring a Tx hand along to a spot where maybe I could get paid on the river.

    Here are results for those who care to see what happened.

    Spoiler:
    I tanked with this one for a while, mostly bc a hand like 89 makes up much more of MY range than his, and yet there he is firing away. I think I eventually called bc he had been drinking and I just couldn't believe he would check a straight on the turn. I was shown 89 and felt dumb.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    I played a similar hand recently where I ran into the turn straight against my top set. Difficult spot for sure.

    What do you know about his river betting tendencies? Does he thin value bet? For this sizing? it's a pot sized bet. If he doesn't bet two pair here then we have a problem.
    by 1dpbuck
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    TerpHimself said:

    Turn Qs, now V checks again. I bet $80, he thinks for a bit and raises to $210. I think for a bit as well and decide to call and keep his Semi-bluffs in, though I'm unsure what he could conceivably be floating with.
    Why are we giving him a free run at those draws in his semibluffs? I'm putting in a small 3-bet, and folding to a raise.
    iamallin said:
    What do you know about his river betting tendencies? Does he thin value bet? For this sizing? it's a pot sized bet. If he doesn't bet two pair here then we have a problem.
    This is the river key. That sizing is scary, and we need to know something about the player to try and figure out what that sizing means. Most people aren't capable of overbetting as a bluff on the river, so this is purely for value. Does villain do this with anything worse than middle set? In game I probably call, but this might very well be a tough fold.
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