I'm trying to get more experience digging deep into hands and analyzing them so I wanted to give it a shot and share this discussion on the forum. Thanks for your input!
$300 effective vs unknown villain. Been at the table maybe 15 minutes so no real reads, villain has about $400.
Hero is UTG w/A♠ A♣ and opens to $10
Villain in UTG+1 calls as does MP 2.
Flop ($30) 10♣ 6♣ 2♥
I bet $22 V raises $55. MP 2 looks pained, shows his neighbor his cards leans back and then folds.
I think I'm only behind to sets here.
Sets- 9 combos
Overpair - 9 combos (QQ is weighted toward 3b 50% and AA-KK are 100% 3b)
Top pair 45 combos -I'd give 18 combos that they are raising (K-10o+)
Flush Draw - 4 combos (QJs+)
I'm ahead of 31 combos vs 9 combos. I think this is a call at $1-2 because people tend to over play top pair hands more often and it is also a call at $2-5 (my main game) because people are more aggressive.
Turn (140) 2♦
V bets $100.
This changes nothing except I'm dead against 1 combo of deuces.
Is this a 5th street chicken situation or because we have less than 1PSB on the river if we call, this is more of a fold/shove situation?
If we were deeper, we'd lean toward 5th street chicken against aggressive or monkey betting opponents and a fold against more straight forward passive opponents.