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$1-2 AA Vs Unkown

mythomaniac Posts: 284Subscriber
edited April 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I'm trying to get more experience digging deep into hands and analyzing them so I wanted to give it a shot and share this discussion on the forum. Thanks for your input!

$300 effective vs unknown villain. Been at the table maybe 15 minutes so no real reads, villain has about $400.

Hero is UTG w/A A and opens to $10
Villain in UTG+1 calls as does MP 2.

Flop ($30) 10 6 2

I bet $22 V raises $55. MP 2 looks pained, shows his neighbor his cards leans back and then folds.

I think I'm only behind to sets here.
Sets- 9 combos
Overpair - 9 combos (QQ is weighted toward 3b 50% and AA-KK are 100% 3b)
Top pair 45 combos -I'd give 18 combos that they are raising (K-10o+)
Flush Draw - 4 combos (QJs+)

I'm ahead of 31 combos vs 9 combos. I think this is a call at $1-2 because people tend to over play top pair hands more often and it is also a call at $2-5 (my main game) because people are more aggressive.

Thoughts?

Turn (140) 2

V bets $100.

This changes nothing except I'm dead against 1 combo of deuces.

Is this a 5th street chicken situation or because we have less than 1PSB on the river if we call, this is more of a fold/shove situation?

If we were deeper, we'd lean toward 5th street chicken against aggressive or monkey betting opponents and a fold against more straight forward passive opponents.

Comments

  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    We block NFD's so this is more value than anything else. Could be he's overvaluing an overpair or Tx. Really only 7 total combos of hands we should be worried about vs 12 QQ/JJ. I'm CRAI here, villains at $1/2 do weird stuff with top pair and overpairs.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    At 1/2 I am in the mindset of trying to get all my money in the middle rather than worrying about being beat. I just prefer leading turn and shoving river. AP either CRAI or call and lead river is fine.
    by 1dpbuck
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited April 2016
    mythomaniac said:
    $300 effective vs unknown villain. Been at the table maybe 15 minutes so no real reads, villain has about $400.

    Hero is UTG w/A A and opens to $10
    Villain in UTG+1 calls as does MP 2.

    Flop ($30) 10 6 2

    I bet $22 V raises $55.

    I think I'm only behind to sets here.
    Sets- 9 combos
    Overpair - 9 combos (QQ is weighted toward 3b 50% and AA-KK are 100% 3b)
    Top pair 45 combos -I'd give 18 combos that they are raising (K-10o+)
    Flush Draw - 4 combos (QJs+)
    I don't know if your game plays way different than mine - but what I bolded here is a red flag for me.
    You're UTG.
    You raised. (BTW, we make it a min of 15 from utg.)
    V is UTG+1.
    He hasn't put 1¢ in the pot yet.
    He knows that he's got 8 people behind him - yet to call/raise/shove.
    He's got 0 pot odds to call with a drawing hand.
    Yet he volunteers $10 from one of the worse positions in the game.

    Unless he's off his rocker... I think your range for him is uber, uber wide!
    Is he really calling with Q J?
    And then raising the UTG pfr with complete air and a flush draw?
    Really?
    Is he really calling pre with K T?
    And then raising the pfr with one player left to act?
    Does that happen often in your games?

    If you didn't have the A - I think his range could include A K or A Q - but since you block the nut FD, I don't see how he's ever betting that.

    If the flop were T 7 2 - then I think you could think that he's raising you with 89....

    But as played - I really don't see him flat calling an UTG pfr with T6 or T2 or 62... which means a raise here can only be an overpair or a set.
    And since KK and AA is probably 3-betting pre - it's only QQ and JJ.
    And once you call the flop - an overpair is typically not continuing on. Neither is AT.
    And IF he was on the FD - he wouldn't be betting into a paired board.
    Turn (140) 2
    V bets $100.
    This changes nothing except I'm dead against 1 combo of deuces.
    BTW - on the turn - it changes a lot.
    You're no longer up against 9 combos of sets.
    Now you're only up against 6 combos of sets.
    And 1 combo of quads.
    It actually reduces the amount of hands that beat you.
    Making it less likely that he's bluffing.

    Since V is unknown - then that would mean Hero is unknown.
    Unless this guy is a monkey bettor - I don't see what we gain by calling the turn.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    stayinschool said:
    At 1/2 I am in the mindset of trying to get all my money in the middle rather than worrying about being beat. I just prefer leading turn and shoving river. AP either CRAI or call and lead river is fine.
    ^^ This.

    With the propensity of players at $1/$2 to a) slowplay sets, and b) raise top pair to "find out where they're at", I'm happily getting it in here. I'm probably going to be leading the turn, as he's going to check back a fair amount, but since you did get him to bet, and have less than a potsized bet behind, I'm shoving. I expect villain to have Tx/JJ a lot, and he isn't going to fold very often.

  • mythomaniac Posts: 284Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    [quote="mythomaniac;8596"]

    Unless he's off his rocker... I think your range for him is uber, uber wide!
    Is he really calling with Q J?
    And then raising the UTG pfr with complete air and a flush draw?
    Really?
    Is he really calling pre with K T?
    And then raising the pfr with one player left to act?
    Does that happen often in your games?



    Since V is unknown - then that would mean Hero is unknown.
    Unless this guy is a monkey bettor - I don't see what we gain by calling the turn.
    Maybe our games are different because in my experience, at $1-2 people show up with all types of garbage from EVERY POSITION. I've seen people over play top pair like it's going out of style.

    I agree, there is some frequency of V checking back tp and over pairs bc they don't know what to do when the pot gets big w.o a lock BUT, I felt that the propensity for someone to "bet to charge the flush draw" was the overarching factor.

    It's a tricky spot for sure, I appreciate the feedback everyone!
    I was on the side of shovel money in so I CRAI. V had 66. Kudos to him for betting the turn. After seeing his hand I thought maybe it was a fold on the flop, BUT as stated, people over play so often and I was new to the table.


  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    dpbuck said:

    With the propensity of players at $1/$2 to a) slowplay sets, and b) raise top pair to "find out where they're at", I'm happily getting it in here. I'm probably going to be leading the turn, as he's going to check back a fair amount, but since you did get him to bet, and have less than a potsized bet behind, I'm shoving. I expect villain to have Tx/JJ a lot, and he isn't going to fold very often.
    so you're basically saying that at 1/2 you're willing to lose 150bb with AA simply because it's the best starting hand in poker?
    I didn't know you approved of playing like OMC.
    where does the poker come in if you're unwilling to make a smart, tactical move?

  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    dpbuck said:

    With the propensity of players at $1/$2 to a) slowplay sets, and b) raise top pair to "find out where they're at", I'm happily getting it in here. I'm probably going to be leading the turn, as he's going to check back a fair amount, but since you did get him to bet, and have less than a potsized bet behind, I'm shoving. I expect villain to have Tx/JJ a lot, and he isn't going to fold very often.
    so you're basically saying that at 1/2 you're willing to lose 150bb with AA simply because it's the best starting hand in poker?
    I didn't know you approved of playing like OMC.
    where does the poker come in if you're unwilling to make a smart, tactical move?

    A smart, tactical move is getting the money in when we have the best hand so often. Getting the money in with Aces on the driest board ever is not playing like an OMC it's playing good poker. This has nothing to do with being the best starting hand in poker. Like this isn't even close. If we don't get all the money in here it is a mistake, a big mistake.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    stayinschool said:
    A smart, tactical move is getting the money in when we have the best hand so often. Getting the money in with Aces on the driest board ever is not playing like an OMC it's playing good poker. This has nothing to do with being the best starting hand in poker. Like this isn't even close. If we don't get all the money in here it is a mistake, a big mistake.
    @stayinschool.... help me understand...
    what hands do you see a player UTG+1 cold calling preflop and then raising the flop - when it's obvious that Hero is betting for value with AA, KK or QQ?
    Assuming V isn't a maniac, what hands are we getting value from when Hero calls flop raise and UTG+1 leads turn?
    Esp. when Hero has the A and both Hero & V are unknowns to each other....

    What possible hands can V have on this T 6 2 board that we crush?
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    stayinschool said:
    A smart, tactical move is getting the money in when we have the best hand so often. Getting the money in with Aces on the driest board ever is not playing like an OMC it's playing good poker. This has nothing to do with being the best starting hand in poker. Like this isn't even close. If we don't get all the money in here it is a mistake, a big mistake.
    @stayinschool.... help me understand...
    what hands do you see a player UTG+1 cold calling preflop and then raising the flop - when it's obvious that Hero is betting for value with AA, KK or QQ?
    Assuming V isn't a maniac, what hands are we getting value from when Hero calls flop raise and UTG+1 leads turn?
    Esp. when Hero has the A and both Hero & V are unknowns to each other....

    What possible hands can V have on this T 6 2 board that we crush?
    first it may not be obvious to a 1/2 player that we have AA, KK, QQ here a lot. Also, he can have AT, KT, QT, JJ, QQ, KK flush draws and other random bluffs. It is insane to put someone only on a set here with no reads what so ever. What reasons do you have for putting this guy on only sets? can you explain? @beauregard
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited May 2016
    stayinschool said:
    first it may not be obvious to a 1/2 player that we have AA, KK, QQ here a lot. Also, he can have AT, KT, QT, JJ, QQ, KK flush draws and other random bluffs. It is insane to put someone only on a set here with no reads what so ever. What reasons do you have for putting this guy on only sets? can you explain? @beauregard
    @stayinschool
    maybe our games play different than yours. because in our 1/3 games - people aren't in a hurry to shovel money into a pot with just one pair. or a crappy draw. In fact, it's not unusual for one player to raise, get one caller and then hand ends with a flop bet. 60% of hands don't ever seem to go past the turn.

    the minute you raise from UTG - 90% of our 1/3 players will range you on JJ+, AKs & AQs.
    (There are some occasional bad players that wouldn't but they wouldn't dare raise the pfr with just T-high. They'd call.)
    And when you c-bet AND then call V's re-raise - they'd be worried.
    They will think that you've got an overpair. (Or if they're dense, AT.)

    If Hero had checked the flop - I could see AT, KT or QT making a move (thinking that Hero has AK or AQ)
    But when Hero bets - in our games - AT, KT and QT are smooth-calling 98% of the time.
    Now, I grant you - that if the board had been T 6 2 - there are a lot of T X hands that could take a more aggressive approach to Hero's flop bet. But since the unclubbed card is the bottom card. AND because there are NO straight draws. It seems impossible for V to be raising with an OESFD kind of hand. So what else could he have?

    Remember, V just sat down 15 minutes ago and hasn't shown himself to be crazy, mad, wild. Or stupid.

    In our games - a flop raise vs PFR is typically 2-pair+ (or nut flush or SFD kind of combo hands) ... and since there really are no reasonable 2-pair hands (or combo sfd hands) he can have.... that just leaves us with being up against sets.
    Now I have played in 1/3 games where villains will call raises with 62s and T6s and even T2s (Doyle's hand)... but again, when they raise - it's because they have a big hand. (And I have played in wild games where we're 7-handed on the flop even when it's raised... and those games play differently. But that's not the case in this hand...)

    As far as thinking V has QQ or KK - if you think V is sharp or aggressive enough to raise flop with those hands - than he certainly should raising pre-flop with them too. Plus - if he raised the flop with JJ-KK, he's got to be concerned when we call that we've got AA... no?

    I don't see as many "fearless" opponents in my games as you seem to think V is. Ain't nobody at our tables trying to bluff you on the flop when all you've shown is strength. Or raise flop and bet turn with garbage hands. They're typically afraid of losing their chips. So when they get aggressive from the 2nd worse position at the table with one player left to act - they're not trying to get you to fold out AA... they're betting for value.

    Esp - against an unknown. Knowns in our game reveal their true colors withing one or two orbits. If they're maniacs - you will see them play Laggy very quickly. And they will try to make moves on everybody.

    Unless Hero is a well known poker pro who's laggy... most players aren't looking at raising him with weak hands.

    On the paired turn - V should be checking back ALL FDs, ALL TX hands and most overpairs. When he doesn't, do you really think Hero shoveling 240 more into the pot is not insane?

    Based on my experience and Hero's info, my range for V on turn is JJ, TT, 66 and 22... period.
    (Okay - maybe 1/2 of the possible QQ combos)
    Pokercrunch that and it's an easy fold on the turn.

    It may not be the perfect GTO solution... but in live poker, you don't need to play GTO to be highly profitable.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Ok well if that is truly what your games are like then you should be bluffing people constantly.

    Also, even if your games are truly that tight, which seem to doubt they are, we are not talking about your games. in 90+% of 1/2 games this is a GII situation. Sometimes they will have a set but usually not.

    *if you games are really that tight you really should either be bluffing a lot or just not playing them. 1/2 has high enough rake anyway without playing with a bunch of nits.
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