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$2/$2 - Nut Flush Draw on Paired Board

dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
$2/$2 ($200 Cap) at Bestbet Jacksonville


V1 (HJ - $400) - 60s white male. Seems pretty loose/passive, limping a lot of hands. Aggression postflop seems to be more made hands than draws, but limited sample size.

V2 (SB - $200) - 40s white female. Typical $1/$2 player - have seen her at least twice raise with medium strength hands to "find out where she's at".

Hero (CO - $400) - 30s black male. Have only been at the table 15 minutes, but already doubled up once with KK vs AQ on a queen-high flop in a 3-bet pot. Done nothing else other than that. The table does know that I am on the list for a $2/$5 seat.


Preflop: Folds to V1 in HJ who openlimps. Hero in CO with A K raises to $12. V2 in SB calls. V1 calls.
Pot $36. Flop 9 9 3. V2 checks. V1 checks. Hero bets $18. V2 raises to $40. V1 calls. Hero calls.
Pot $156. Turn 4. V2 checks. V1 tanks and bets $80. Hero tanks and calls. V2 looks back at her hand and folds.
Pot $316. River 7. V1 tanks and checks. Hero bets $65 targeting 9x. V1 snap shoves for $270 total. Hero?


Preflop is standard. On the flop, I went a little bit smaller with my sizing as I wanted smaller pairs to hang around until I could bomb the river, getting more value. I could have bet larger for straight value with my 14 outs to a smaller pair, but I chose the sizing to get the best of both worlds.

V2s flop check/raise is almost always either a smaller FD, 3x, or a midpair. I was planning to call and then raise just about any turn. But then V1 coldcalled. I wasn't sure what to make of his range for that play. Thoughts on a range for him? Getting another bet in on the flop after that action would be overkill, right?

Turn convinces me I'm right on V2s range. But now V1 bets. This is 9x, right? I considered folding, but felt the 3:1 price tag was too good to pass up at this point. I thought there was some chance V2 calls behind me as well. Thoughts?

River really makes me think he has 9x. I think he'd bet a smaller flush, and probably would check/fold 9x to a larger bet, so I went small, trying to make the price look too good to fold. Then he snap-shoves! Does he ever take this line with a smaller flush? Or with that pacing is this always a boat?
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Comments

  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    edited April 2016
    dpbuck said:

    Preflop is standard. On the flop, I went a little bit smaller with my sizing as I wanted smaller pairs to hang around until I could bomb the river, getting more value. I could have bet larger for straight value with my 14 outs to a smaller pair, but I chose the sizing to get the best of both worlds.
    Why do you want smaller pairs to hang around (as you have ace high?) On a board like this you can get called by worse draws and small pairs that you can barrel off OTT so feel free to smash away.
    dpbuck said:
    V2s flop check/raise is almost always either a smaller FD, 3x, or a midpair. I was planning to call and then raise just about any turn. But then V1 coldcalled. I wasn't sure what to make of his range for that play. Thoughts on a range for him? Getting another bet in on the flop after that action would be overkill, right?
    It sounds like you've got your read on V2 pretty dialed in so I like your plan as it pertains to her. As for V1's range, I would say it leans towards 9's with some weaker draws (and the odd pair spattered in.) Getting another bet in OTF would be optimistic to say the least.
    dpbuck said:
    Turn convinces me I'm right on V2s range. But now V1 bets. This is 9x, right? I considered folding, but felt the 3:1 price tag was too good to pass up at this point. I thought there was some chance V2 calls behind me as well. Thoughts?
    Turn call is fine
    dpbuck said:
    River really makes me think he has 9x. I think he'd bet a smaller flush, and probably would check/fold 9x to a larger bet, so I went small, trying to make the price look too good to fold. Then he snap-shoves! Does he ever take this line with a smaller flush? Or with that pacing is this always a boat?
    I don't necessarily think V1 folds a 9 to a larger bet OTR but you're right about him betting a flush (and usually a boat.) Your original read on this villain is that he's mostly passive, wouldn't often raise on the come and he's in his 60's... luckily you bet small OTR and now you can fold. Crafty old fart put you on a flush draw and checked it to you when you made your hand. Sure, he could have a smaller flush (or be spazzing with a naked nine) but all signs point to a full house.

  • fishcake Posts: 935Subscriber
    Call. I'd bet way bigger on river, too. This is 2/2.....
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    Bump for Call In Show.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,298Subscriber
    OMC seems to have quads, 33, or a FD.

    So did OMC tank call the flop? He tank bet and tank checked the river.

    with the A and K of diamonds out that leaves about 10-20 combos of FDs vs 4 combos of boats and quads I'd say.

    So the question is.... would OMC CR the 3rd or worse non-nut flush on the river? If you bet more on the river your answer is far better defined.

    If the OMC has just a 9 he is probably calling a large bet anyways. if he has a smaller FD he is calling anyways. Your small bet puts you in a weak spot. At the very least bet MORE than he did on the turn.
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