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1/3 NLHE - Line Check w TPTK

jerseyeagle Posts: 27Subscriber
edited April 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Mandatory button straddle of 10, blinds folds to Hero (800) UTG who opens A Q to 40 with an above average image. A decent player (young Asian who is a winning player but is too wide pre-flop) and another drunken whale (ATC) call in position. Hero is the effective stack with 800.

Flop A K 2 - Hero bets 90 into 120 (don't think either player - esp. drunk whale will fold an Ace - I might've been able to just pot here...) Asian villain calls, whale folds.

Turn A K 2 3 - Hero bets 125 to target worse aces, esp all A x hands. Villain calls.

River A K 2 3 6. I'm a bit lost here, and I 'm not sure I can get value from worse (except AJ - maybe if I bet 1/4 pot or so, weak As can feel pot committed?) Is this a bet-fold, check-call, check-fold? I know this is Villain dependent, but I don't have a great read at this point. I'd love to hear your mental framework in this spots.

Spoiler:
Hero checks, Villain bets 225 into 550. I struggle to construct his range and fold. Value wise, there are some flushes, 22, and a couple combos of AK. Villain knows that I can bet-fold top pair on flop, so is unlikely to raise with 22 and AK. I'm lost as to whether he will bet AJ/AQ for thin value - I am inclined to think that he won't, but I haven't seen him really squeeze out thin value when his hands go to showdown.

Important: My confusion is from trying to ascertain what level he's thinking: i.e. since my range is capped when I check River, maybe he thinks he can bet ATC and I must fold. HOWEVER, I don't know how big of a bluffing frequency he has, and my line looks like I'm checking to c/c. How do you all approach this type of situation?
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Comments

  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    river is a clear b/f (small)

    as played: fold is fine as most villain's aren't turning any hands you beat (that have SDV) into a bluff.
  • mythomaniac Posts: 284Subscriber
    Rocketman74 said:
    river is a clear b/f (small)

    as played: fold is fine as most villain's aren't turning any hands you beat (that have SDV) into a bluff.
    I'm not sure I agree. I think if we are bet-folding turn bc of the flush, we are checking expecting to win all his check backs and fold to a bet because people loOo0ve to slowplay.
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    mythomaniac said:
    I'm not sure I agree. I think if we are bet-folding turn bc of the flush, we are checking expecting to win all his check backs and fold to a bet because people loOo0ve to slowplay.
    It would be a shame to not get value from A X× or AX in general (because they are often calling)
  • jerseyeagle Posts: 27Subscriber
    edited April 2016
    Thanks for the comments - I should add that Villain is a pretty competent hand reader. I don't think he is calling >125 on the river with AT or worse. Also getting a teensy bit contradictory, but I don't think he calls my open with very many A2o-A9o combos. Even though he is too wide pre, it is more with suited gappers/suited trash that plays a bit easier post flop.
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