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turn decision with overpair 170bb

maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
edited April 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
5-10 uncapped,

game plays bigger than normal 5-10 games since it's an uncapped buyin and BU has to post 10 - 20 $ ante (depending on players at the table) , openraises are still rather small, 30-50 is normal but the games here sometimes play pretty deep and not a lot of shortstack. I feel like to most fish 100bb isn't a lot. 5-10 is also the smallest game in this room.

hero, bigtime winning, 6k stack,

villain, pretty much unknown rec, saw him bluff once in a smaller pot, was about even for the session, not particularly loose or tight / passive / aggro. initially bought in for 1k or 1,5k not sure. sits on about 1,7k now


CO opens 30, hero tanks on BU , villain in sb throws in 30 for a call, hero raises 80 with K K , sb calls without hesitation, CO folds.

I think SB could have taken his 30 back if he wanted but I am not sure if he knows that, he pretty much snapcalled anyways but I think he is wider than he normally would be because he was mentally prepared to play a hand and see a flop after he called the 30....

flop (215) J 9 5 , check, hero bets 130, villain calls rather quickly

turn (465) 4 , check, hero bets 290, villain tanks for a while and raises to 800 with 450 behind. hero??

villain pretty quickly prepared the chips for a raise but than took a while

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Comments

  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    I'd just shove. Also raise more pre flop.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    that was quick :D

    I raised smaller because CO folded a lot to 3bets and only had 600$ stack
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    maphacks said:
    that was quick :D

    I raised smaller because CO folded a lot to 3bets and only had 600$ stack
    That's fine but once the guy calls 30 I feel like we can go atleast 100 expecting him to call a lot. But you're right 80 is fine in general
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    It's a funny thing on this forum... you can definitely tell whose been running well and whose been getting killed because my first reaction is to fold. :lol:
  • sxz18 Posts: 345Member
    stayinschool said:
    I'd just shove. Also raise more pre flop.
    I wish I could play in games where this was standard. We are hoping villain has exactly QQ I'm guessing?
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    sxz18 said:
    stayinschool said:
    I'd just shove. Also raise more pre flop.
    I wish I could play in games where this was standard. We are hoping villain has exactly QQ I'm guessing?
    I don't play in crazy games but I still don't think we can fold an overpair to one raise here from a not great player. What if he just has Jx, what if he has a draw, what if he has a random bluff. Not much beats us. We also don't have too many better hands here.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    I think V's turn check/range falls into 2 camps:
    1.) he's afraid of flush and wants you to pay in case you're on a draw
    2.) he's improved with the flush draw and now has more equity

    Hands in scenario 1 are:
    J9, JJ, 99, 55
    assuming he only calls with suited cards...
    2 combos of J9, 3 combos of JJ, 3 combos of 99, 3 combos of 55
    (we lose to 11 combos)

    Hands in scenario 2 are:
    A J, Q T, T 8, K J, Q J, A K, A Q
    (we're ahead of 7 combos - if he'd play them this way... I think naked FDs are less likely)

    me thinks the pre-bet, pause and bet was the consideration of a shove - but then re-eval to just
    bet something that you might call... even though his stack is now awkward

    PokerCruncher has got us as at 32% dog vs V's hand 1 & 2 range.
    In a 3-bet pot - not sure V is trying to "steal" the pot away from you with this bet (a shove would be more effective)
    It feels like a value bet.
    While we could add TT and QQ to his range... if Hero's image is aggressive and Hero c-bets 100% of the time
    I find oop ranges to typically be tighter than guys in LP.

    without more info - it feels like a fold
  • BartBart Posts: 5,926AdministratorLeadPro
    I honestly don't see many turn check raises as semi-bluffs in 3 bet pots, especially after you have shown so much strength by fire twice on a board players probably don't dbl barrel all that much with their ace hi s.

    I think J X is just calling you down here along with any other pair plus flush draws. There are 9 full set combos in this guy's range. We treat is turn raise as an all in so basically the pot is $2000 $1250 to call. I didn't punch this hand into cruncher but this feels like a fold to me.

    Bart
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    I think V's turn check/range falls into 2 camps:
    1.) he's afraid of flush and wants you to pay in case you're on a draw
    2.) he's improved with the flush draw and now has more equity

    Hands in scenario 1 are:
    J9, JJ, 99, 55
    assuming he only calls with suited cards...
    2 combos of J9, 3 combos of JJ, 3 combos of 99, 3 combos of 55
    (we lose to 11 combos)

    Hands in scenario 2 are:
    A J, Q T, T 8, K J, Q J, A K, A Q
    (we're ahead of 7 combos - if he'd play them this way... I think naked FDs are less likely)

    me thinks the pre-bet, pause and bet was the consideration of a shove - but then re-eval to just
    bet something that you might call... even though his stack is now awkward

    PokerCruncher has got us as at 32% dog vs V's hand 1 & 2 range.
    In a 3-bet pot - not sure V is trying to "steal" the pot away from you with this bet (a shove would be more effective)
    It feels like a value bet.
    While we could add TT and QQ to his range... if Hero's image is aggressive and Hero c-bets 100% of the time
    I find oop ranges to typically be tighter than guys in LP.

    without more info - it feels like a fold
    Just ran stove and we are doing worse than I thought. I guess we fold. I think we would probably have to call with some AA tho.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Fold.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    I did the math in my head ingame and figured it's pretty close. After running equities I found out he has to do this with 2 or more AJo combos AND most combo draws. I think that's not the case with this player. Fold should be fine
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