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2/5: TP with NFD in 3bet pot

PinkyPinky Posts: 60Subscriber
edited May 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 effective stacks 610.

UTG (rec) raises to 25; UTG+1 (LPP) calls; MP1 (LPP) calls; Hero MP2 3! to 100 with AdKh. Only UTG and UTG+1 call. Pot 325.

FLOP: Kd9d4d

UTG check; UTG+1 check; Hero bets 155. UTG tanks and calls. UTG+1 thinks for a second and raises AI for an additional 355. Pot is now 1145. Hero?

For context, UTG+1 is a very poor player. Hero recently doubled through UTG+1 in another 3bet pot 5 mins earlier with AK vs. QQ on a K high flop (called all three streets). Hero has a very good image.

Comments

  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    you're getting the right odds to call with the NFD and might have the best hand anyway.
    by 1Pinky
  • PinkyPinky Posts: 60Subscriber
    edited May 2016
    thx. I guess this is what I don't understand, and maybe I'm misusing Bart's 45 unseen card rule. I would need 4:1 on a call here, right? Even more if I put this guy's range on a made flush already. Right now, I'm getting 3.22:1. If he has a flush, I'm only drawing to seven outs, and there is still a player behind me left to act. Is it correct to stack off if I assume the AI player has a flush or a set already? I'm doing pretty poorly against those hands, even though realistically I'm should only be worried about a set of 9's or specifically JQd. It's hard see many other hands in this range that this guy would flat for $75 more pre.

  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    Pinky said:
    maybe I'm misusing Bart's 45 unseen card rule. I would need 4:1 on a call here, right?
    45 unseen card rule figures out your odds to see the turn (and 44 if it's OTT) but you're gonna see both cards.

    Even against a flopped flush and a set you're only a 3-to-1 dog

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,388Subscriber
    You are getting 4 for 1. Even if the 2nd player calls with a set you are now getting 5 for 1. you know you have 7 outs. I have my own system and that's about 28% equity discounted 23% due to set possibility. You need 4.5 for 1 if the other guy calls with a set. You are good.

    I think you are counting 1 street not 2. It's double the chance with 2 streets.
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    Fuzzypup said:
    You are getting 4 for 1.
    Pinky said:
    UTG+1 thinks for a second and raises AI for an additional 355. Pot is now 1145
    ~3.2-to-1 no?
  • PinkyPinky Posts: 60Subscriber
    Yeah, 3.2. So, I think and call. UTG says, "shit" and folds....
    UTG+1 tables Jd3d
    I brick out. UTG had TcTd. Turns out I was only drawing to six outs and was in pretty bad shape. In hindsight, I just wasn't sure I was getting the right price.

    In a hilarious moment, UTG+1 says, "after the first guy called your raise I was getting pot odds, so...you know, I'm supposed to call there"....shitbird racks up ten minutes later
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