Welcome.

Take a tour. Enjoy some free sample content.

How it works

Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
New to Crush Live Poker?

$2/5 Full House gets raised on the river

TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
Hero is a 30's WG, been drinking a bit, being loud and in general giving off a rec-player vibe. Otherwise been pretty tight to a keen observer as hands are going multi-way and villains are sticky so hero has been laying back a bit.

Villain is a 30's WG, possibly a pro. Hero & villain have about 10 hours of play, villain has a tight almost nitty image.

$850 eff, villain covers.

UTG limps (loose/gambly middle-aged Asian guy)
Hero limps next in with 5 5
Villain makes it $25 from MP1
BTN (bad 50's WG reg who overvalues hands and doesn't hand read), limper, hero call

Flop ($100) 6 5 2

All check. Ranging V on whiffed hands like AK/AQ/KQ/AJ, could be suited connectors that want to realize equity. Thinking I need to bet here given the stickyness of the opponents.

Turn ($100) 6 5 2 6

UTG checks, Hero bets $60, villain calls, rest fold.

River ($220) 6 5 2 6 A

Hero bets $140. Villain raises to $500.

Hero?
Tagged:
«1

Comments

  • carru036 Posts: 173Subscriber
    edited May 2016
    Really strange line from villan, definitely take note of what he shows down. The value hands he is repping would have bet flop especially multiway. I don't think the described villan would iso pre with pocket pairs less than 88 or small SC's. I wouldn't be suprised to see some type of missed broadway FD here. The most credible value hand that he reps is AA but I would be shocked to see that.

    All things considered, I would shove here. I think we still beat his value range except a weirdly played 66, 56, or AA. Weird hand forsure. Interested to see results.
  • carru036 Posts: 173Subscriber
    edited May 2016
    I've thought about this hand a bit longer and flip flopped on my stance. One more thing that I am considering here is that I think a hand like AA is MUCH more likely to check this flop than a flopped set or 2 pair (and those hands aren't likely to even be in his post-flop range due to the ISO preflop.) This makes me lean a bit closer to just calling IF we know he wouldn't ISO those hands pre. It's also important to note that we are at exactly 50% versus a range of 22,66, and 56, so we're breaking even on shoving and calling. If we include AA we're crushed. If his range is only busted FD's and AA, calling is best. While I think it would be criminal to miss out on the value of shoving here and chalking it up to "Weird live spazz plays that make no sense, lets shove because we have a monster", I'm having a real hard time believing he even has a value range that we beat. Might be a good spot to call instead of shove but I think in a vacuum either option is +EV and we are splitting hairs here.
  • carru036 Posts: 173Subscriber
    edited May 2016
    Really surprised no one else has chimed in on this, would be interested to see what others have to say.
  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    carru036 said:
    Really surprised no one else has chimed in on this, would be interested to see what others have to say.
    Me too :(
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Ok so this hand is a great example of what I think is probably a polarized range..

    When I was reading this I was asking myself these questions:

    1) Would villain iso raise with 22 or 66? even 56?
    2) If villain did raise with those hand is he really CHECKING back those hands on the flop? that WET of a flop?
    3) Is villain capable of a thin value raise or river bluff when a scare card comes?
    4) Would villain check back AA on that kind of board??


    So when I look back I think the answers are not likely, no fing way, probably not, and maybe..

    So the most credible value line is AA is he is in fact nitty.. also if he is nitty we get into this theory of raise or not raise??? ie would he just call with say AK or AQ??? Is villain really so nitty that his river raise is just never a bluff and since its so unlikely for him to have any worse full house or even 34 for a straight I guess we just call.

    understand I dont think I am ever folding here. AA is only 3 combos and there is always that general spaz factor to deal with. If villain can thin value raise say 67 or something like that then its at least a clear call.

    ww
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    If villain is good he shouldn't have much here that beats us. I think A6 may be the only hand a good player could show up with and if he has A6 he might have other 6x he is raising river with. AP i'm just calling, never folding, never raising. take a note of what he shows up with as it is very important.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Are you thinking of raising? How can you fold?
  • Johnny_UtahJohnny_Utah Posts: 402Subscriber
    No way without solid evidence / reasons to fold here. If we get coolored, oh well. Very strange line by V
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,441Subscriber
    edited May 2016
    Hard to imagine a tight almost nitty pro villain, checking this flop when it is wet and connected. He can get value from flush and straight draws, over cards, over pairs etc. The only hand that checks this flop, imo, is 66 or AA, but that seems so improbable or at least with a very low frequency with most villains. He would have to really zero in on his opponents ranges knowing a) they never connect with the board and / or b) someone- button - is likely to fire at it so he can check raise.

    But that just seems so far out there. I would expect a bet of some sort on the flop.

    River raises just aren't bluffs, and if this guy is a tight nitty pro he isn't putting money into the pot with a hand that doesn't beat us. 66 (1), AA (3), A6 (6) {discounted heavily}.

    In game we puke, tank, and call, because the line is just too weird.

    On the forums it looks like a clear fold.

  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    You guys are way too nitty. This is never a clear fold
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    stayinschool said:
    You guys are way too nitty. This is never a clear fold
    I didnt say fold. lol :wink:
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,441Subscriber
    stayinschool said:
    You guys are way too nitty. This is never a clear fold
    Zeebo ??


  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Arenzano said:
    stayinschool said:
    You guys are way too nitty. This is never a clear fold
    Zeebo ??


    No but folding a house to a line that doesn't make much sense against a guy we have only played 10 hours against is never an easy decision

  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Thehammah said:
    stayinschool said:
    You guys are way too nitty. This is never a clear fold
    I didnt say fold. lol :wink:
    I ment to quote someone I didn't mean you Wendy haha
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,441Subscriber
    stayinschool said:
    Arenzano said:
    stayinschool said:
    You guys are way too nitty. This is never a clear fold
    Zeebo ??


    No but folding a house to a line that doesn't make much sense against a guy we have only played 10 hours against is never an easy decision


    I hear ya. That is why I said, in game we call. On the forum, it would look like a fold.

    What does our hand look like to the villain? 6x, air?
  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    Arenzano said:
    stayinschool said:
    Arenzano said:
    stayinschool said:
    You guys are way too nitty. This is never a clear fold
    Zeebo ??


    No but folding a house to a line that doesn't make much sense against a guy we have only played 10 hours against is never an easy decision


    I hear ya. That is why I said, in game we call. On the forum, it would look like a fold.

    What does our hand look like to the villain? 6x, air?
    In game my thoughts were to either jam or call. His line made no sense. I discounted 22 as he'd limp those IMO. Ruled out 65 as I think he would bet flop as would AA. If this is a busted draw or even Ax, he folds to a ship. So I called getting 2.5/1.

    Naturally he showed AcAs lol. Thanks for the feedback everyone.
  • sxz18 Posts: 345Member
    I think the fact that there was no heavy discussion or consideration for folding is a very huge leak.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Doug polk did not fold a full house on shr cash game. Neither did sam trickket. They both ran into higher full houses. If these guys dont fold it we shouldnt either. Full house over full house doesn't occur all that often ..this spot is not going to turn you from a lose to a winner or vice versa. If you get some read then yeah go ahead and fold. Otherwise I don't think you are doing too much wrong by calling.

    There is a need to control variance amongst many of us. It is a natural desire. But the only way to play the game is to accept variance. Not nit it up every time someone takes an aggressive action. That's just my opinion.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    sxz18 said:
    I think the fact that there was no heavy discussion or consideration for folding is a very huge leak.
    It is mathematically impossible for this to be a huge leak.
  • sxz18 Posts: 345Member
    I don't see the correlation between WCG or Trickett. Different situation against a different player pool. The better the player the more blended their range becomes and thus makes calling more correct. In a tough 25/50+ line up I would not fold this but nobody is checking aces on this flop either.

    In regard to math, it's one of the biggest leaks I see in players who are heavily dependent on mathematics and combinations in their decision making. Poker is not a science and had I seen this thread earlier I would have made an argument for villain having aces without seeing results.
Sign In or Register to comment.