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$2/$5: 3-Bet Flop Deep, Would You Fold Top 2?

$1000 eff. V is a middle-aged recreational player. For some reason, I don't have a read on him. He opens UTG+1 to $20, I flat OTB with Q T

Flop: Q T 9 Pot $47 He leads $40, I make it $160, he makes it $520
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Comments

  • pokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Do you at least know if he's been playing lose or tight or seen any of his show down hands? Rec players can have AQ, AA/KK here a lot and be protecting against the draw/think they have the nuts. It's not impossible he has TT or 99 and I'm not sure this is the spot I want to find out how light he can be here.
  • [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited June 2016
    pokertime said:
    Do you at least know if he's been playing lose or tight or seen any of his show down hands?
    Unfortunately, no.

  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    raise/fold is fine against middle aged rec wihout reads. call flop is also good
  • maphacks said:
    raise/fold is fine against middle aged rec wihout reads. call flop is also good
    You mean just flat his lead OTF? But there's so many scare cards that can hit the turn that can outdraw me and/or kill my action.

  • Bonezy Posts: 82Subscriber
    Here are my thoughts. Call pre is fine. Raise on the flop is fine, could maybe raise slightly more. Once he bet/3b this flop I'm thinking, would he play AA KK like this? Would he play sets like this (aka 99, we block Qq 1010). Would he open Kj from that position, would he bet 3bet this hand? Does he play draws like JJ or AKhh Axhh like this? These are all questions I'm asking myself and trying to form a read. It helps to know if the guy is tight or loose or generally passive or general aggro. Also I'd like to know if he plays his draws fast. I can't really give a total answer because there isn't really a read. I'd say if you think he is a rec player I'd call/lead safe turn cards or could just gii on the flop. id act differently depending on what reads I have
  • DustinLalle said:
    Here are my thoughts. Call pre is fine. Raise on the flop is fine, could maybe raise slightly more. Once he bet/3b this flop I'm thinking, would he play AA KK like this? Would he play sets like this (aka 99, we block Qq 1010). Would he open Kj from that position, would he bet 3bet this hand? Does he play draws like JJ or AKhh Axhh like this? These are all questions I'm asking myself and trying to form a read. It helps to know if the guy is tight or loose or generally passive or general aggro. Also I'd like to know if he plays his draws fast. I can't really give a total answer because there isn't really a read. I'd say if you think he is a rec player I'd call/lead safe turn cards or could just gii on the flop. id act differently depending on what reads I have
    I do have a read that he does not 3bet flop with draws :) Pretty solid read at that.

  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    This is an easy fold, you are spewing money continuing in this hand
  • ILikeGamble Posts: 89Subscriber
    edited June 2016
    I like the flop raise, I'd ship it after he 3 bets flop. Without reads, I don't think the average middle aged rec is opening KJ or J8 from UTG+1, much more likely they'd limp. 5 combos of sets. 12 combos of AA/KK. GII.
  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    edited June 2016
    I think raising the flop is good vs this particular player.

    Facing an effective 3bet OTF is a bit more complicated.

    We can calculate whether or not this is a fist-bump-shove spot by using a fold equity calculator. As we're realistically either shoving or folding OTF, lets say he 3bets the flop to 1k total to make the maths simple (in reality its not exactly 1k effective so this won't have a huge effect on the numbers.

    Post size before you shove: Preflop $47 + H Raise $160 + V shove $1000 = $1207
    How much to call: V shove $1000 - H Raise $160 = $840
    How much are we shoving total: $1000

    Minimum equity to B.E. if V folds 0% of the time: 42%.

    Now lets design some ranges to see if we can hit that target based on some conservative assumptions. Lets say worst case his shoving range is QQ,TT,99,KJ,T9s. If we plug that range in versus our hand we have only 23% equity and we should therefore fold.

    Now lets come up with a more optimistic range. Lets say he's the type to stack off with AA/KK pre, and he only raises KJs in EP. We could also add some combos like AQhh, AJhh but we're roughly 50/50 against these so lets ignore those for simplicity. So his shoving range is AA,KK,QQ,TT,99,T9s,KJs. Against that range we have 48% equity.

    However, I think saying he goes with AA/KK with 100% certainity is a bit too optimistic. Lets say he only goes with 50% of those combinations i.e. 50%(AA-KK) or AA only (using AA is on the conservative side as KK has gutshot outs). Now we have about 42% equity against that range so we're roughly breaking even.

    I don't like taking very marginally +EV spots for 200BB effective even against value, so I'd fold despite the maths. Warning, the above calcs may/may not have some small numerical errors....!
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    I think this is a million times less complicated than folks are making it out to be. The guy had $60 dollars in the pot after he led the flop. He got raised and decided to increase his investment in the hand by a factor of 9x.

    Pretty sure 2 pair is worthless here
  • [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited June 2016
    stayinschool said:
    This is an easy fold, you are spewing money continuing in this hand
    So you're saying we're crushed by his range. Could you please get specific on his range?

  • Acidhauss said:
    I think raising the flop is good vs this particular player.

    Facing an effective 3bet OTF is a bit more complicated.

    We can calculate whether or not this is a fist-bump-shove spot by using a fold equity calculator. As we're realistically either shoving or folding OTF, lets say he 3bets the flop to 1k total to make the maths simple (in reality its not exactly 1k effective so this won't have a huge effect on the numbers.

    Post size before you shove: Preflop $47 + H Raise $160 + V shove $1000 = $1207
    How much to call: V shove $1000 - H Raise $160 = $840
    How much are we shoving total: $1000

    Minimum equity to B.E. if V folds 0% of the time: 42%.

    Now lets design some ranges to see if we can hit that target based on some conservative assumptions. Lets say worst case his shoving range is QQ,TT,99,KJ,T9s. If we plug that range in versus our hand we have only 23% equity and we should therefore fold.

    Now lets come up with a more optimistic range. Lets say he's the type to stack off with AA/KK pre, and he only raises KJs in EP. We could also add some combos like AQhh, AJhh but we're roughly 50/50 against these so lets ignore those for simplicity. So his shoving range is AA,KK,QQ,TT,99,T9s,KJs. Against that range we have 48% equity.

    However, I think saying he goes with AA/KK with 100% certainity is a bit too optimistic. Lets say he only goes with 50% of those combinations i.e. 50%(AA-KK) or AA only (using AA is on the conservative side as KK has gutshot outs). Now we have about 42% equity against that range so we're roughly breaking even.

    I don't like taking very marginally +EV spots for 200BB effective even against value, so I'd fold despite the maths. Warning, the above calcs may/may not have some small numerical errors....!
    I'm not sure what you're basing all this on. He bet, I raised, he 3bet to $520. I'm not sure where you're getting the $1000 3bet stuff from. Maybe you need to reread the hand description?
  • BananaStand said:
    I think this is a million times less complicated than folks are making it out to be. The guy had $60 dollars in the pot after he led the flop. He got raised and decided to increase his investment in the hand by a factor of 9x.

    Pretty sure 2 pair is worthless here
    That's absolutely irrelevant. The only thing that's relevant is whether given his line, we're ahead of his range or not. And I don't think it's a trivial question.

  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    JapanTown said:
    BananaStand said:
    I think this is a million times less complicated than folks are making it out to be. The guy had $60 dollars in the pot after he led the flop. He got raised and decided to increase his investment in the hand by a factor of 9x.

    Pretty sure 2 pair is worthless here
    That's absolutely irrelevant. The only thing that's relevant is whether given his line, we're ahead of his range or not. And I don't think it's a trivial question.

    Irrelevant? Are you serious? A guy who was only in the hand for 12BB's just dropped an entire buy-in in teh middle AFTER getting raised? And you don't think that matters?

    Ranging him here is a moot and pointless exercise. Bets that are huge in terms of absolute size, not just relative to the size of the pot, are always big hands at this level. You can try to define a range if you want, but every hand in that range has one thing in common.....it beats your two pair.
  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    JapanTown said:
    [quote="Acidhauss;80235"]

    I'm not sure what you're basing all this on. He bet, I raised, he 3bet to $520. I'm not sure where you're getting the $1000 3bet stuff from. Maybe you need to reread the hand description?
    I'm assuming you're either folding, or effectively getting the money in on the flop.

    Therefore to make the calculations easier he's basically 3betting all in, and you have to make a decision based on your equity whether jamming or not is +EV.


  • Bonezy Posts: 82Subscriber
    Acidhauss said:
    JapanTown said:
    [quote="Acidhauss;80235"]

    I'm not sure what you're basing all this on. He bet, I raised, he 3bet to $520. I'm not sure where you're getting the $1000 3bet stuff from. Maybe you need to reread the hand description?
    I'm assuming you're either folding, or effectively getting the money in on the flop.

    Therefore to make the calculations easier he's basically 3betting all in, and you have to make a decision based on your equity whether jamming or not is +EV.


    I think this is a shove the more I come back to it, I'm giving him a range of AKhh Axhh( within reason) 99 and AA/KK. A lot of rec players will grossly overpay their big pairs. If we run into it we run into it
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    edited June 2016
    DustinLalle said:
    I think this is a shove the more I come back to it, I'm giving him a range of AKhh Axhh( within reason) 99 and AA/KK. A lot of rec players will grossly overpay their big pairs. If we run into it we run into it
    Holy moly. You really think it's a good idea to just shovel 200BB's in there hoping this complete stranger is the certain type of player you want him to be. And if he isn't, you chalk it up to variance?

    And this is your position AFTER the OP gave you this nugget of wisdom....
    JapanTown said:
    I do have a read that he does not 3bet flop with draws :) Pretty solid read at that.
    The people in this thread who wouldn't fold are the REASON that there is still so much money in poker, and illustrate so clearly why the strategy in live low stakes no limit should be geared towards making fat value for your monster hands, just as the villain in this hand is doing so expertly.

    I can't wait to see the results on this one. I'll eat my shoe if we aren't a jillion miles behind on the flop.
  • Bonezy Posts: 82Subscriber
    BananaStand said:
    DustinLalle said:
    I think this is a shove the more I come back to it, I'm giving him a range of AKhh Axhh( within reason) 99 and AA/KK. A lot of rec players will grossly overpay their big pairs. If we run into it we run into it
    Holy moly. You really think it's a good idea to just shovel 200BB's in there hoping this complete stranger is the certain type of player you want him to be. And if he isn't, you chalk it up to variance?

    And this is your position AFTER the OP gave you this nugget of wisdom....
    JapanTown said:
    I do have a read that he does not 3bet flop with draws :) Pretty solid read at that.
    The people in this thread who wouldn't fold are the REASON that there is still so much money in poker, and illustrate so clearly why the strategy in live low stakes no limit should be geared towards making fat value for your monster hands, just as the villain in this hand is doing so expertly.

    I can't wait to see the results on this one. I'll eat my shoe if we aren't a jillion miles behind on the flop.
    So your telling me you fold for the simple fact that people dont bet big unless they have the nuts? Thats basically what youre saying here. Rec players over play AA or KK alot because they have an overpair to the board and also if this guy looks down at AKhh I probably plays the same. To put him exactly KJ or 99 is kinda weak imo. Theres def hands that have us beat but we also beat some hands I feel he could do this with, Im not in the game though so I cant say for sure, given the way the hand played and ops reads I dont think getting it in isnt a bad thing, you act like this rec player is only felting with the nuts?
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    JapanTown said:
    stayinschool said:
    This is an easy fold, you are spewing money continuing in this hand
    So you're saying we're crushed by his range. Could you please get specific on his range?

    straights and sets
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll

    So your telling me you fold for the simple fact that people dont bet big unless they have the nuts? Thats basically what youre saying here.
    Yeah. Simple fact.

    This isn't just a big bet. It's a very unusually big bet. The kind of bet you'll only see once every several hours or more at a full table. How often does someone 3 bet a flop for 100BBs??

    You'll be fine folding the non nuts every single time. Trying to bluff catch will result in you making way way more bad calls than bad folds.
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