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$2/$5: Is This a Cooler?

$1200 eff. $10 button straddle is on. MP1 limps, SB folds, I make it $50 with A J , MP1 and button call.

Flop: A 5 9 Pot $152 I bet $80, only MP1 calls

Turn: J Pot $312 I bet $200, MP1 raises to $600.

MP1 sat down 5 mins ago I have absolutely no reads on him. I shove and get instacalled by 55.
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Comments

  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    Any time someone wants to raise you on a card that you thought was good for you it's usually a red flag when we don't have the nuts. If he had AK/AQ he would raise flop not the turn which could very well give you 2 pair. I think this is a fold to an unknown.
  • Anyone else?
  • MarcusMarcus Posts: 104Subscriber
    I think we can learn a lot here from looking at the distribution of the suits... only 1 combo of A9 suited left and one combo of A5 suited. If he has all the AJs in his range then thats 4 combos... and there are 6 combos of sets of 5's and 9's combined. It seems like there are way more hands that we are just getting crushed by. You could add up the equities of all the combos to get a better idea of "how many times that you have to be profitable to make this call" but I have a feeling that there are just not enough hands in his range that we beat.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,097Subscriber
    I think it's a fold.
    There's no much he could be overplaying except maybe, A9s, A5s and J9s and there's only 1 combo of each left.
    Its extremely hard for him to even have AQ or AK and sizing is just too huge (especially considering absolute $ value)

    Line is very consistent with flopped set though.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    I'm definitely not shoving over his raise, that's for sure. Are you expecting him to call with A9 after all the aggression you've shown.

    As for whether we call and decide, do we think villain limp/calls A9 or A5 preflop? We would need a read that he will in order to call the turn raise. I'd assume an unknown isn't going to do that, so we should be folding to the turn raise.
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