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Hero fold river?

Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
Villain is unknow middle aged asian lady. She is on her second 300 buyin. She is very friendly. She has been showing me her cards alot. She was playing pretty cautious. Any time she lead at a pot she had a hand. Never saw her make a bluff.

About 3 hours ago when the game first started i stacked her when she made it 20 from mp i called AcJc. Flop Tc8c2d she cbet 25 i raised to 65 she called. Turn J she checked/called 115. River was Qc she checked/called a shove with KcKd. When she busted her first buyin I saw her showdown T9 on a Th7d4h 9c Jh board. She was driving the hand. Bet flop and turn smallish then shove her last 100 on the river.
I saw her twice call preflop with AK and AQ and shove a short stack on A high boards.

2/5
355 eff
I raise 30 with QQ from co over 2 limps unknown limp/calls directly on my right

Flop 60 J 9 5
Checks
I bet 45
she calls

Turn (150) 3
check
I bet 105
she calls

River (360) Q
She shoves for 175
Hero?
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Comments

  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    Fold. Based on the hand histories you've seen, she definitely has a hand here. The only thing you really beat would be a rivered two pair, but that's not very many combos when you hold two Q's.

    Check/call, check/call, lead is usually a pretty powerful line live games. I'd say you're toast.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    KK hand makes me want to call. I'm not sure that we can know that she doesn't have JQ or 99, 55. It's is close but based of previous hand histories I would fold.
  • ILikeGamble Posts: 89Subscriber
    As stayinschool said, KK hand makes me want to call. T9 hand also makes me want to call, since she shoved when the flush and one liner came in on the river. Based on the hand histories it seems like she overvalues hands and does not understand absolute vs relative hand strength.

    That being said, there's more combos of straights and flushes than sets and two pair and her check/call, check/call, ship line is consistent with a flush draw or straight draw so I think it's a tough fold.
  • Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
    stayinschool said:
    KK hand makes me want to call.
    Shouldn't this makes us want to fold? She checked called turn and river earlier with an over pair. And now she is leading the river. This acutually made me want to fold.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    The crux of the KK hand is the flop raise scared her so she wasnt folding but she was afraid to take the lead in case she was beat. Or maybe she thought she was trapping. Point being she's likley only getting aggressive if she thinks she has the nuts. Could she think QJ is the nuts? Maybe but probably not. This is most likely a puke fold. Maybe not even puke. Standard card that improves your hand but gives someone else the nuts. It happens!
  • Bonezy Posts: 82Subscriber
    Tough spot, everything gets there. Getting like 3 to 1 our money here, so gotta be good 25% to break even. Not sure if we are going to be good enough here, really tough fold getting that kind of odds but everything does get there and I feel like she def plays sets and two pair slightly differently. Im not in the business of folding sets but this might be one of the times I do so.
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    the big difference between this hand, and the previous ones is initiative. She took it every time she had a hand that should have rated to be the best, and gave it up when she probably didn't. Thus far, her taking and surrendering initiative has correlated perfectly to her hand strength.

    I"m not sure the pot odds matter since we block the majority of combos we'd be targeting for value. It really doesn't sound like she's sophisticated enough to be bluffing a draw that she doesn't have.
  • Bonezy Posts: 82Subscriber
    BananaStand said:
    the big difference between this hand, and the previous ones is initiative. She took it every time she had a hand that should have rated to be the best, and gave it up when she probably didn't. Thus far, her taking and surrendering initiative has correlated perfectly to her hand strength.

    I"m not sure the pot odds matter since we block the majority of combos we'd be targeting for value. It really doesn't sound like she's sophisticated enough to be bluffing a draw that she doesn't have.
    def agree here, like I said, this is one of the few times im folding a set.
  • Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
    Thanks for the responses. My line of thinking was pretty much in line with everyone. I did fold.
    Spoiler:
    while i was thinking i showed her my cards and folded. She showed me the A and said she had AA. But i dont buy it at all. I felt good about my fold when she showed me that card. I think she was annoyed that i folded to her.
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